Live Updates: Trump Will Decide on Iran Attack ‘Within the Next Two Weeks,' White House Says
Iran retains the naval assets and other capabilities it would need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could pin any U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, American military officials say.
In meetings at the White House, senior military officials have raised the need to prepare for that possibility, after Iranian officials threatened to mine the strait if the United States joined Israel's attacks on the country.
Pentagon officials are considering all of the ways Iran could retaliate, as President Trump cryptically hints at what he might do, saying on Wednesday that he had not made a final decision.
In several days of attacks, Israel has targeted Iranian military sites and state-sponsored entities, as well as high-ranking generals. It has taken out many of Iran's ballistic missiles, though Iran still has hundreds of them, U.S. defense officials said.
But Israel has steered clear of Iranian naval assets. So while Iran's ability to respond has been severely damaged, it has a robust navy and maintains operatives across the region, where the United States has more than 40,000 troops. Iran also has an array of mines that its navy could lay in the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean is a key shipping route. A quarter of the world's oil and 20 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas passes through it, so mining the choke point would cause gas prices to soar.
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A satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz, showing the Iranian coast at top, and Qeshm Island and the United Arab Emirates below.
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Gallo Images, via Getty Images
It could also isolate American minesweepers in the Persian Gulf on one side of the strait. Two defense officials indicated that the Navy was looking to disperse its ships in the gulf so that they would be less vulnerable. A Navy official declined to comment, citing operational security. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Iran has vowed that if attacked by American forces, it would respond forcefully, potentially setting off a cycle of escalation.
'Think about what happened in January 2020 after Trump killed Suleimani and times that by 100,' Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said.
Qassim Suleimani, a powerful Iranian general, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, during Mr. Trump's first administration. Iran then launched the largest ever ballistic missile barrage at American bases in Iraq, leaving some 110 troops with traumatic brain injuries, and unintentionally hitting a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard.
'Iran is strategically weaker but operationally still lethal across the region,' Mr. Katulis said, 'and Americans still have troops across that part of the world.'
Iran has mined the Strait of Hormuz before, including in 1988 during its war with Iraq, when Iran planted 150 mines in the strait. One of the mines struck an American guided missile frigate, the U.S.S. Samuel B. Roberts, nearly sinking it.
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The U.S.S. Samuel B. Roberts being towed after hitting a mine in the Persian Gulf in April 1988.
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Associated Press
Gen. Joseph Votel, a former leader of U.S. Central Command, and Vice Adm. Kevin M. Donegan, a former commander of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East, each said on Wednesday that Iran was capable of mining the strait, which they said could bring international pressure on Israel to end its bombing campaign.
But such an action would probably invite a massive American military response and further damage Iran's already crippled economy, Admiral Donegan added.
'Mining also hurts Iran; they would lose income from oil they sell to China,' he said. 'Now though, Iranian leadership is much more concerned with regime survival, which will drive their decisions.'
Military officials and analysts said missile and drone attacks remained the biggest retaliatory threat to U.S. bases and facilities in the region. 'These would be shorter-range variants, not what they were launching against Israel,' Admiral Donegan said. 'That Iranian capability remains intact.'
Admiral Donegan also expressed concerns about the possibility that the Quds Force, a shadowy arm of Iran's military, could attack U.S. troops. 'Our Arab partners have done well over the years to root most of that out of their countries, however, that Quds Force and militia threat still remains in Iraq, and to some extent in Syria and Jordan,' he said.
Iranian officials are seeking to remind Mr. Trump that, weakened or not, they still can still find ways to hurt American troops and interests in the region, said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Striking Iran, he said, 'gets into such big unknowns.' He added, 'There are a lot of things that could go wrong.'
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Damage from a suspected Iranian missile attack in Petah Tikva, Israel, this week.
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Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times
Much is at stake for Iran if it decides to retaliate. 'Many of Iran's options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'They can do enormous damage to others if they mine the Strait of Hormuz, destroy regional oil facilities and rain a missile barrage against Israel, but they may not survive the blowback.'
But Iran can make it hugely expensive, and dangerous, for the U.S. Navy to have to conduct what would most likely be a weekslong mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to one former naval officer who was stationed on a minesweeper in the Persian Gulf. He and other Navy officers said that clearing the strait could also put American sailors directly in harm's way.
Iran is believed to maintain a variety of naval mines. They include small limpet mines containing just a few pounds of explosives that swimmers place directly on a ship's hull and typically detonate after a set amount of time. Iran also has larger moored mines that float just under the water's surface, releasing a hundred pounds of explosive force or more when they come in contact with an unsuspecting ship.
More advanced 'bottom' mines sit on the seafloor. They use a combination of sensors — such as magnetic, acoustic, pressure and seismic — to determine when a ship is nearby and explode with hundreds of pounds of explosive force.
The Navy has four minesweepers in the Persian Gulf, each with 100 sailors aboard who have been based in Bahrain and are trained in how to deal with underwater hazards.
Should Iran place mines in the Strait of Hormuz or other parts of the Persian Gulf, a small Navy contingent in Bahrain called Task Force 56 would respond.
Usually led by a senior explosive ordnance disposal officer, the task force would take advantage of technologies like autonomous underwater vehicles that can scan the seafloor with sonar much more quickly than the last time Iranian mines threatened the strait.
And while the Navy has been experimenting with underwater robots to destroy mines, the task force will still need to deploy small teams of explosive ordnance disposal divers for the time-consuming and dangerous task of approaching each mine underwater and carefully placing charges to destroy it.
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