Why Quebec could once again tip the balance in this federal election
At a casse-croûte on Montreal's South Shore, Anne-Marie Pinot settles in for a lunchtime poutine. She has voted for political parties across the spectrum over the years, but this time, she is voting Bloc Québécois.
Pinot is concerned about the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, but worries Quebec could be forgotten in trade negotiations without a strong local voice. Her 18-year-old daughter, also a Bloc supporter, motivated her to get more involved with the sovereigntist party.
"The idea is to protect the Quebec economy," said Pinot, after snapping a selfie with Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who stopped for a photo-op in the hotly contested riding of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, where polls suggest the Liberals are in a tight race with Bloc incumbent Denis Trudel.
Pinot's argument reflects what Blanchet has been trying to get across to voters, in what has proven to be a challenging campaign for the sovereigntist party.
The shadow cast by Trump has loomed large in Quebec, where questions of identity and culture have not been as present as in previous campaigns, said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president with the polling firm Leger.
"In the past few electoral cycles, it was easier to run on identity issues. That really gave the Bloc an edge compared to other parties," Dallaire said.
"Without this, as people are talking more generally about the economy, how to defend Canada against the threats coming from the United States, it was much harder for the Bloc to really make its voice heard in that context."
Bloc's pitch: 'We will be a responsible partner'
The latest opinion polls show the Liberals could win as many as 45 of the province's 78 seats, with the Bloc a distant second with between 19 and 26, according to CBC's Poll Tracker.
In the 2021 election, the Liberals won 35 seats, compared with 32 for the Bloc.
The tracker suggests the Conservatives could win between 12 and 14, up from 10 in 2021. The NDP is hoping to hold on to its lone seat in Quebec, with Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Blanchet has acknowledged the Liberals could form the next government and has tried to make the case that the Bloc needs enough seats to represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa.
"I don't want to be prime minister, but I can offer to be a partner, a responsible partner, a collaborative partner," Blanchet said during the English debate, stressing the need for the next federal government to protect the province's aluminum industry from tariffs, as well as the French language and culture.
"If we are respected, we will be a partner, and then Canada will be stronger in its negotiation with Donald Trump."
The two main parties have also tried to shore up support. Liberal Leader Mark Carney spent a day in Quebec during the last week of the campaign.
In Trois-Rivières, another hotly contested riding, Carney said French language and identity and supply management are not "negotiable" in the face of Trump.
"As long as I am prime minister, those fundamental components of our society and of Quebec's economy and the economy of all of Canada will never be called into question," he said.
The Conservatives appear to have a stronghold in the Quebec City area, where Pierre Poilievre announced his party's "Quebec platform" last month. Poilievre has said he would protect Quebec's autonomy and the French language and cut the number of non-permanent residents in the province by 50 per cent — a demand by Premier François Legault.
As party leaders wrap up their pitches, analysts say Trump's influence still hangs over the campaign.
"Even if Trump might be less central to the debates now, there is a path that was created — one that's favourable to the Liberals — and the Bloc and the Conservatives have been unable to really shift that path," said Daniel Béland, a political science professor and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.
WATCH | How voters in Quebec view the campaign:
How has this election campaign evolved for Canadians from start to finish?
1 day ago
Duration 2:43
Trump and other issues
Election campaigns tend to start with policy and numbers, and turn toward emotion near the end of a campaign, but in this case, Trump's threats flipped the script, Dallaire said.
"Now it's more of a calculating, more rational end to a campaign," he said.
Affordability is still a big issue, but inflation could potentially get worse if a trade war escalates with the U.S.
"It brings up concerns about your job and your family's well-being," Dallaire said.
"All these things are closely intertwined."
In Longueuil this week, several residents said cost of living was among their top concerns.
"I'm a student, so everything is really expensive," said Marianne Boisclair, adding that the environment was also a top concern.
Robert Lauzon, who supports the Bloc, said his priorities are the "economy for sure, and the place for Quebec in Canada."
On her way to the shopping mall with her newborn, Evelyne Gauvin said support for families and the environment were important. But the U.S. president "is still very much part of the debate."
"And I think he is going to be there until the end of his mandate," she added.
With that in mind, the Bloc could be especially vulnerable, polls suggest — and what happens to its seat count could tip the balance.
"How much will the Bloc be able to keep? That may well decide if we have a majority or a minority government," Dallaire said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Winnipeg Free Press
7 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Sierra Leone's President Bio to be the next ECOWAS chairman with region in turmoil
ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — Sierra Leone's President Julius Maada Bio was chosen on Sunday to be the next chairman of the West African economic bloc, ECOWAS. The Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS, was founded in 1975, and is facing challenges due to rising violence, member departures and economic disturbances. In a statement following Sunday's announcement, Bio promised to prioritize democracy, security cooperation, economic integration and institutional credibility. 'We are still confronting insecurity in the Sahel and coastal states, terrorism, political instability, illicit arms flow and transnational organized crimes continue to test the resilience of our nations and the effectiveness of our institutions,' he said. Bio is currently serving his second term as president after a contested election two years ago in the coastal West African country. He was president when ECOWAS imposed severe sanctions on Niger following a coup two years ago. Niger cited the sanctions as one of the reasons for leaving the bloc. Sierra Leone was one of the countries that supported a military intervention in the country in 2023. At home, Bio is facing an ongoing synthetic drug crisis and a stagnating economy. Bio's new position comes as the region faces its most severe crisis in decades with jihadist forces controlling vast swaths of the Sahel, a semi-arid region south of the Sahara. In the past few years, ECOWAS has struggled with the departure of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger which have all faced military coups. All three juntas left the bloc, and created their own security partnership, the Alliance of Sahel States. They have cut ties with the traditional Western allies, ousting French and American military forces, and instead sought new security ties with Russia. The three countries have been the hardest hit by jihadist violence in recent years.
Vancouver Sun
8 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
Former Liberal cabinet minister John McCallum dead at 75, family says
John McCallum, a former Liberal cabinet minister and a mainstay of 21st-century Canadian politics, has died at age 75, his family confirms. A statement says McCallum passed away peacefully Saturday, surrounded by family. McCallum was first elected to the House of Commons to represent the Greater-Toronto-Area riding of Markham in 2000 after a career that included stints as chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and dean of arts at McGill University. He would go on to serve as a cabinet minister for three different Liberal prime ministers across a variety of portfolios. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. McCallum was also Canada's ambassador to China from 2017 to 2019, but resigned at the request of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau after McCallum waded into controversies surrounding the arrest of a Huawei executive in Canada. His relatives say they remember him as a loving and kind family man with a witty sense of humour. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Edmonton Journal
8 hours ago
- Edmonton Journal
Former Liberal cabinet minister John McCallum dead at 75, family says
Article content John McCallum, a former Liberal cabinet minister and a mainstay of 21st-century Canadian politics, has died at age 75, his family confirms. A statement says McCallum passed away peacefully Saturday, surrounded by family. McCallum was first elected to the House of Commons to represent the Greater-Toronto-Area riding of Markham in 2000 after a career that included stints as chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and dean of arts at McGill University.
