Survivor 48: Ranking the 5 remaining castaways in likelihood of winning the game
Survivor 48: Ranking the 5 remaining castaways in likelihood of winning the game
On Wednesday night, Survivor 48 will come to a close, with show host Jeff Probst overseeing who will be crowned the latest Sole Survivor in show history.
It's been a roller coaster of a season, one that has provided fans with a throwback to how Survivor used to be played as opposed to the more strategy-led approach that has dominate recent seasons.
While we can't tell with certainty who will be the last castaway standing after the Final Tribal Council, we've gone through the final five contestants and ranked them with their likelihood of winning the game.
Let's run through all five of these Survivor 48 castaways and discuss why they're favorites or underdogs at this stage in the game.
5. Mitch Guerra
Mitch sticking around like he has throughout the season, often on an empty stomach, deserves a lot of commendation. He's got a great story, and his fellow competitors have consistently mentioned how his perseverance should be considered as a threat with the jury at final statements.
Mitch has played a good game, but he just lacks the Immunity Challenge showcases and moments of inspired game play his fellow remaining competitors have gathered this season. It won't shock us if Mitch makes it to the final three, but we're not sure he'll have as strong of a case as some of the other castaways this season. Even so, we're glad Mitch made it this far.
4. Eva Erickson
A wonderful castaway this season, Eva deserves so, so much credit for being the first openly autistic Survivor contestant. She has played an inspired game, winning an Immunity Challenge, building an incredible alliance with Joe that has dictated so much of this season and finding game advantages along the way she hasn't even needed. She's been a steady force in guiding where this season of Survivor has gone so far.
However, if the jurors have to choose between Joe and Eva at the end, it's likely to be the former for how much he dominated those Immunity Challenges and how much he's led the alliance they both had with Kyle and Shauhin. Being such a dedicated member of a Survivor alliance can have its downsides if your fellow competitors don't necessarily find you to be the top threat in that group, after all.
Eva more than has what it takes to make it to Final Tribal Council, but we're not sure she'll make it across the finish line as the Sole Survivor. Even so, she's been a remarkable castaway this season, and we'd love to see her back in a future Survivor competition.
3. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla and Kyle's hidden alliance has been one of the most consequential movers and shakers in this game, and it's been arguably the best showing of strategy between two contestants this season so far. If the jury rewards the castaways in this game playing the most modern game of Survivor, Kamilla absolutely should be considered a threat to win it all with Kyle. She's won an Immunity Challenge, too, so that helps.
However, her chances of winning are solely based on how well her alliance with Kyle can withstand the Final Immunity Challenge. If Joe wins yet again, it will make it tougher and tougher for Kamilla and Kyle to remain in lockstep with each other in the final phases of the game just based on who is left.
Kyle still has a bond with Joe and Eva that Kamilla does not, and Kyle is the biggest threat to win outside of Joe. Kamilla will be a real factor to win if she makes it to Final Tribal Council, but Joe and Kyle have the overall edge right now going into the last final days. Still, Kamilla has played a strong game of modern Survivor.
2. Kyle Fraser
Make no mistake about it; Kyle is the biggest non-Joe threat to win Survivor 48. If you're basing this off how the game has been played in recent years, Kyle has been the most impressive modern Survivor contestant this season. If Kyle and Joe both make it to Final Tribal Council, it's really a coin flip as to who the jury will select.
Kyle has taken an admirable approach to playing Survivor the old and new way, leaning on his relationships and his strength and building a modern alliance in secret for strategic purposes with Kamilla. Sure, he doesn't have the overwhelming success Joe has with Immunity Challenge victories, but he may win over the jurors who appreciate how he's been able to get the best of both worlds while in Fiji. If he wins, don't be shocked.
Outside of Joe, Kyle feels like the only "right" choice to win, given how well he's melded past and present approaches to playing Survivor. Honestly, you could make an argument he's the favorite in that view.
1. Joe Hunter
Ever since the beginning, Joe has felt consistently like the biggest threat in the Mamanuca Islands to be crowned Sole Survivor. He has masterfully built an alliance with Eva that has withstood almost the entirety with the game and showed his glowing character by helping her in a touching moment that brought Probst to tears.
Joe has been adamant throughout the show that he wants to win the game the old-fashioned way, without any deception and on the merits of his accomplishments through Immunity Challenges and honest social bonds. If he wins, it will hearken back to the original days of the show and prove that, even in the modern era, a contestant like Joe can absolutely steamroll through a season and win the game entirely. His fellow castaways had a golden moment to vote him out of the game during "Coconut Etiquette" but chose Mary instead. It was the real strategic folly of this entire game for the castaways, but it also showed why Joe's empathetic approach has its strategic advantages, too. How do you vote somebody out with whom you have a strong relationship?
At this point, Kyle feels like the only realistic contestant to beat Joe in the Final Tribal Council if he makes it there, barring a surprise surge from Kamilla late in the contest. The other castaways have constantly talked about how Joe has been the biggest threat to win all along, and that may work against him in crunch time if Kyle, Kamilla and Mitch get a chance to vote him out before the final four is set. Joe is going to have to give it his all in the Final Immunity Challenge because he's got a huge target on his back if he doesn't win it.
However, we still like Joe's odds to win it all at the end despite his real challenges to even get in position to win. He's been the strongest player throughout the season (depending on how you like your Survivor played), and his honorable game play hasn't hindered his success. He should be considered the favorite for now.
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