Malaysia leads ASEAN in new direction on Myanmar
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With Malaysia assuming the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2025, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is poised to steer the regional bloc toward a more assertive stance on Myanmar's ongoing crisis. Unlike previous chairs, Malaysia aims to prioritize accountability for the Myanmar junta's atrocities and reject the legitimacy of its planned elections, widely criticized as a sham.
This approach, while ambitious, faces significant challenges given ASEAN's history of ineffectiveness on Myanmar. The implications for the Rohingya and other minorities are profound and Anwar's personal interest in the issue adds a unique dimension to Malaysia's leadership. However, the likelihood of this approach being successful remains uncertain, constrained as it is by ASEAN's structural limitations and regional dynamics.
Malaysia's chairmanship, themed 'Inclusivity and Sustainability,' comes at a critical juncture. Myanmar's junta, led by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has plunged the country into chaos since the 2021 coup, displacing more than 3.3 million people and killing thousands, with ethnic and religious minorities bearing the brunt of the violence.
ASEAN's response, primarily through the Five-Point Consensus adopted in April 2021, has been widely criticized as toothless, failing to curb the junta's aggression or advance inclusive dialogue. Malaysia, under Anwar's leadership, seeks to break this cycle by rejecting engagement with the junta, advocating for accountability and dismissing the junta's election plans as a ploy to entrench power.
Anwar's strategy includes several key elements. First, Malaysia has appointed a special envoy, Tan Sri Othman Hashim, to facilitate dialogue with all stakeholders, including the national unity government and ethnic groups, signaling a shift toward recognizing Myanmar's legitimate democratic forces.
Second, Malaysia is pushing for increased humanitarian aid to affected communities, particularly the Rohingya, and stronger coordination with international bodies like the International Criminal Court to address human rights abuses.
Finally, Anwar has called for ASEAN to cease all economic and diplomatic ties with the junta, such as barring its representatives from ASEAN meetings and cutting off resources like aviation fuel that enable military operations.
While Malaysia's approach is principled, its success is far from assured. ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making model, which requires unanimity among its 10 member states, has historically paralyzed decisive action on Myanmar. Countries like Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, which maintain closer ties with the junta or prioritize economic relations with China, Myanmar's key ally, are likely to resist Malaysia's push for a hard-line stance. Previous chairs, such as Indonesia in 2023, attempted similar reforms but failed to overcome these divisions, resulting in the Five-Point Consensus' stagnation.
Anwar's vocal advocacy for the Rohingya stems from a combination of personal conviction and strategic positioning.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
Anwar's diplomatic efforts, including his controversial meetings with both the national unity government and Min Aung Hlaing in April, reflect a pragmatic attempt to engage all parties. However, the junta's track record of broken promises — such as its ceasefire of the same month, which was violated almost immediately — undermines the feasibility of negotiated progress. Moreover, Malaysia's ability to rally ASEAN members is complicated by its own foreign policy shifts, including closer ties with China and Russia, which may alienate Western partners that could support accountability measures.
The junta's planned elections, scheduled for either December 2025 or January 2026, further complicate Malaysia's strategy. Widely viewed as a sham to legitimize military rule, these elections exclude key stakeholders like the national unity government and ethnic minorities. Malaysia's call for inclusive polls is laudable but lacks enforcement mechanisms, as ASEAN's noninterference principle limits its ability to pressure the junta. Without unified regional support or external leverage from powers like the US or the EU, Malaysia's efforts risk being symbolic rather than transformative.
The Rohingya, a Muslim minority subjected to genocide in 2017, stand to gain significantly from a successful Malaysian-led ASEAN strategy. Malaysia hosts approximately 120,000 Rohingya refugees, a humanitarian burden that underscores the urgency of addressing Myanmar's crisis. Anwar's push for enhanced humanitarian aid and safe repatriation, in coordination with Bangladesh, which hosts nearly a million Rohingya, could alleviate immediate suffering. Furthermore, Malaysia's advocacy for International Criminal Court involvement may bring justice for atrocities, offering a semblance of accountability for the Rohingya and other persecuted groups like the Karen and Shan.
However, failure to achieve meaningful progress could exacerbate the plight of these minorities. Continued violence and displacement in Myanmar, coupled with ASEAN's inability to act, may deepen regional instability, with Malaysia and neighboring countries facing increased refugee inflows and social tensions. The junta's elections, if held without reform, could further marginalize ethnic minorities, entrenching their exclusion from Myanmar's political process and perpetuating cycles of violence.
Anwar's vocal advocacy for the Rohingya stems from a combination of personal conviction and strategic positioning. As a long-time human rights advocate and a Muslim leader, Anwar has consistently championed the cause of Muslim minorities globally, including the Palestinians and the Rohingya. His condemnation of the 2017 Rohingya genocide and calls for international action reflect a moral commitment to addressing their suffering. This stance resonates with Malaysia's domestic audience, where the Rohingya issue is a significant social and political concern, given the country's large refugee population.
Strategically, Anwar's focus on the Rohingya enhances Malaysia's regional and global standing. By positioning Malaysia as a moral leader within ASEAN, Anwar seeks to restore the bloc's credibility and assert Malaysia's influence as a middle power. His engagement with both democratic and authoritarian actors in Myanmar reflects a pragmatic approach to diplomacy, balancing idealism with the realities of ASEAN's fractured dynamics.
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