Could Nigeria's careful ethnic balancing act be under threat?

In Nigerian politics, there has long been an informal understanding: presidential appointments should carefully balance the country's many ethnic and religious differences. Today, there are growing concerns that this is being ignored.
While the constitution requires regional representation in cabinet positions, the broader distribution of other prominent roles has traditionally followed a convention aimed at fostering national cohesion.
Nigeria's fractious divisions have in the past torn the country – Africa's most populous – apart.
Concerns about fairness in presidential appointments are not new, but a chorus of criticism is growing over President Bola Tinubu's picks, with some accusing the head of state – who has been in power for two years – of favouring people from his own Yoruba ethnic group.
The presidency vehemently denies the accusation.
There have long been fears that members of one ethnic group would come to dominate key positions – and this means that presidential appointments are closely scrutinised whenever they are announced.
There are over 250 ethnic groups in the country with Hausa-Fulanis, Igbo and Yoruba – hailing from the north, south-east and south-west respectively - being the three largest.
Critics say that Tinubu, a southern Muslim, showed signs of ignoring precedent from the onset when he picked another Muslim (although from the north) to be his running mate for the last election.
Since the return of democracy in 1999, the major parties had always put forward a mixed Muslim-Christian ticket, as the country is roughly evenly divided between followers of the two religions.
Tinubu's appointments since becoming president in May 2023 are facing growing cricisim.
Although there are dozens of roles for a head of state to fill, there are eight jobs that "are the most crucial for every administration", according to political analyst and barrister Lawal Lawal.
These are the heads of the:
central bank
state-owned oil company, NNPC
police
army
customs service
intelligence agency
anti-corruption agency and
revenue service.
There is no constitutional ranking of positions, but collectively these roles control the key financial and security apparatus of the country.
Every president inherits his predecessor's appointees, but has the prerogative to replace them.
As of April, all eight positions under Tinubu are now filled by Yorubas.
The recent appointment of former Shell boss Bayo Ojulari to head the state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), in place of a northerner turbocharged the debate about the apparent monopoly of one group in top positions.
Looking at who filled the same posts under Tinubu's two immediate predecessors, there was no such dominance of one ethnic group at the same stage of their presidencies.
Goodluck Jonathan – who served from 2010 to 2015 – had a relatively balanced team of two ethnic Fulanis, two Hausas, one Atyap, one Igbo, one Yoruba and one Calabar.
When it came to Muhammadu Buhari – in power from 2015 to 2023 – the situation was less clear.
In the top eight he had three Hausas, two Kanuris, one Igbo, one Yoruba and one Nupe.
But in the minds of many Nigerians, Hausas, Kanuris and Nupes are all seen as northerners – and therefore there was a perception that Buhari, who is from the north, showed favouritism.
Some argue that Tinubu's appointments have merely continued the trend, but the 100%-Yoruba make-up of the eight key positions is unprecedented.
"For a democratically elected president, I cannot remember at any point in Nigerian history where you have this high concentration of a particular ethnic group holding most of the sensitive positions," history professor Tijjani Naniya told the BBC.
This is not just about what has happened in the past but it could have an impact on the unity and even the future of the country, the professor said.
"For me, the fear is what if the next president continues on this path and picks most of the sensitive positions from his ethnic group, it diminishes the feeling of belonging among the rest and also reduces belief in democracy," he said.
In the last two years, many northerners, mostly Hausa-Fluanis, have looked at the apparent direction of travel with alarm.
The current men (there are no women) in charge of the NNPC, the police, customs and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) all replaced northerners.
The removal of Abdulrasheed Bawa, a Hausa, as boss of the EFCC in 2023 just two years after he was appointed was especially controversial.
He was arrested, accused of abuse of office and detained for over 100 days before the charges were dropped.
He was replaced by Ola Olukoyode, an ethnic Yoruba.
Some from the north felt Mr Bawa was unfairly treated and pushed aside to make way for Mr Olukoyode.
"The president needs to know that the Yoruba people are just a part of the country, and all appointments should be spread across all ethnic groups and regions," social affairs analyst Isah Habibu told the BBC.
Without addressing specific cases, a Tinubu spokesperson has said the president is being fair and balanced, by taking the wider view of all appointments.
Media aide Sunday Dare did try to go into detail, saying overall, 71 northerners and 63 southerners had been appointed by Tinubu. But his 9 April post on X was later deleted, after people pointed out errors in his claim.
He promised an updated list, but more than six month slater, it has yet to appear.
Tinubu faces critics even from within his own party.
Senator Ali Ndume is from the north and – like Tinubu – belongs to the All Progressives Congress. In one television interview he said he had gone on air to talk about the president's appointment "wrongdoings".
Ndume said he was shocked, describing them as "non-inclusive and not reflecting the president's 'Renewed Hope' agenda, which promised to carry every section of the country along".
Another presidential aide, Daniel Bwala, disputed the idea that some positions were more significant than others.
"All I know is that the constitutional provisions [regarding appointments] have been taken care of by the president - there's nowhere in the constitution [where it is] mentioned top five, top 10 and the rest," he told the BBC.
"The way we see it is that any position or appointment that one is privileged to serve in is very critical and important.
"The national security adviser is from the north-east, the chief of defence staff is from the north-west and the secretary to the federal government is from north-central."
The Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, which coordinates policy on behalf of the presidency, released a statement on 12 April saying Tinubu was being fair.
"This administration is dedicated to ensuring that all regions and demographics of the country are adequately represented in its institutions and agencies," it said.
Political analyst Mr Lawal said the president should appoint the best person for the job, irrespective of their ethnic origin – and agues that this is what Tinubu is doing.
"It's high time Nigeria looks beyond ethnicity," he said.
There could be a time when Nigerians no longer obsess over the ethnic origins of those in the upper echelons of government, but historian Prof Naniya says this is still some way off.
He believes it can only happen when the country gets at least four presidents in succession who give every section a sense of belonging in terms of projects and appointments.
"I think it can be done but needs the right leaders."
Nigeria's spectacular horse parade closing Ramadan
'I scarred my six children by using skin-lightening creams'
'How I survived Nigeria attack that killed my 16 friends'
Are Nigerians abroad widening the class divide back home?
Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.
Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica
Africa Daily
Focus on Africa

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Forbes

39 minutes ago

• Forbes

Hormuz On A Knife‑Edge: Qatar's LNG Warning Sends Insurance And Freight Costs Exploding

Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Sherida al-Kaabi speaks during a press ... More conference in Doha on September 1, 2024. (Photo by KARIM JAAFAR / AFP) (Photo by KARIM JAAFAR/AFP via Getty Images) Fresh alarm. In a 20 June Reuters exclusive, Doha confirmed that it hauled ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies into a closed-door meeting two days earlier, warning that one stray missile in the Strait of Hormuz could instantly wipe out one-fifth of global LNG supply. Asian spot prices obeyed the signal—jumping 11 percent to $14/mmBtu before London markets had fully digested the headline. One narrow waterway still moves the world. Hormuz pinches to 21 nautical miles at its choke and carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil—about one-fifth of global seaborne supply—plus a similar share of LNG every day. Close the channel and power stations from Houston to Hong Kong scramble for fuel while tanker queues lengthen by thousands of nautical miles. Chokepoint concentration. The International Energy Agency calculates that only about 6.5 million barrels a day can shift quickly to Fujairah, SUMED or inventories; the balance simply waits. Price-shock amplitude. Additional-war-risk premiums (AWRP) on very-large crude carriers have rocketed from 0.05 percent to 0.25 percent of hull value—roughly a US $225 000 surcharge on each $90 million ship—and forward Brent markets now build in triple-digit scenarios for any prolonged disruption. Policy bandwidth. True spare capacity inside OPEC clocks in near three million barrels a day and sits inside the same blast zone, leaving diplomacy—so far untested in open conflict—to carry most of the burden. Backup pipes replace only a sliver. Saudi Arabia's East-West line and the UAE's Habshan–Fujairah bypass together provide about 2.6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, barely one-eighth of normal Hormuz throughput. Even a coordinated drawdown of strategic storage could not keep two-thirds of Gulf exports moving if the strait closed for a week. Insurance costs shout before oil charts whisper. Since 13 June, tanker underwriters have priced the region as an active war zone. A five-fold jump in AWRP lands before a single barrel is lifted, signalling risk faster than futures curves can. For a refiner, those premiums flow straight into delivered crude costs within days. Freight rates leap in lock-step. Gulf-to-Asia VLCC rates hit $2.14 per barrel on 17 June—60 percent higher in just five days—and charterers now fix ships day-to-day rather than locking in multi-month contracts. The volatility premium migrates down the supply chain, raising break-even prices for refiners, airlines and petrochemicals alike. Qatar's tankers loiter outside the Gulf. QatarEnergy has instructed LNG carriers to remain east of Hormuz until the day before loading. AIS data confirm a multi-year low in Persian-Gulf-bound empty tankers—evidence of growing caution even as contractual volumes continue to flow. Spare capacity sits where missiles can reach it. RBC Capital Markets pegs genuine OPEC spare capacity at roughly three million barrels per day, nearly all within Hormuz's threat ring. Every new headline—whether a cease-fire whisper or another drone strike—moves Brent and insurance quotes long before drilling rigs or pipelines can respond. Economic ripples extend well beyond crude. Higher tanker premiums bleed into LNG freight, lifting electricity costs that keep AI data centres humming. European refiners, already paying roughly €70 per tonne of CO₂, see margins flip negative once reroute costs stack up; Asian importers instead burn through stockpiles that last weeks, not months. Insurance leverage unseen since the late 1980s now shows up in airline ticket prices and industrial power bills. Numbers translate geopolitics into P&L. U.S. energy-agency models suggest each $10 oil shock trims about one-tenth of a percentage point from U.S. GDP. BloombergNEF freight curves add another $1.60 per barrel for a Cape of Good Hope detour plus $0.80 in bunker fuel. War-risk elasticity studies show that 70 percent of an insurance premium embeds into headline freight within a fortnight—effectively turning geopolitical anxiety into everyday costs at the pump. Strategic takeaway remains uncomplicated. Boards cannot micromanage every contingency, but they can widen risk limits, diversify shipping lanes and co-fund a GCC–EU 'Hormuz Alternative Route Task-Force.' The planning bill is trivial next to today's $225 000 voyage surcharge. In the absence of bold collective action, every forward-freight contract will continue to price a toll for geopolitical complacency. Better to pre-empt that charge than pay it in arrears.

Yahoo

2 hours ago

• Yahoo

Iran missile barrage leaves 19 injured in Israel's Haifa: hospital

Missiles fired from Iran on Friday left at least 19 people injured in the northern Israeli port of Haifa, a local hospital said, on the second week of war between the arch foes. Iran has been firing daily missile salvos at Israel for the past week, since a wide-ranging Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic's nuclear installations and military bases triggered war. At least one projectile appeared to evade Israel's air defences, slamming into an area by the docks of Haifa where it damaged a building and blew out windows, littering the nearby ground with rubble, AFP images showed. A spokesman for the city's Rambam hospital said 19 people had been injured, with one in a serious condition. Earlier, Israel's Magen David Adom rescue service reported two people had been injured by falling shrapnel after the attack but did not specify the location. Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a statement that Haifa's Al-Jarina mosque "was struck by an Iranian missile, injuring Muslim clerics and worshippers at prayer". Foreign Minister Gideon Saar later shared a similar message on social media, adding that "the Iranian regime is targeting Muslim, Christian and Jewish civilians, as well as civilian sites. These are war crimes." A military official said that "approximately 20 missiles were launched towards Israel" in the latest Iranian salvo. Around 20 minutes after the air raid sirens were activated, the army released a statement saying people were allowed to leave bomb shelters. Earlier Friday, sirens rang out in parts of the country following another Iranian missile launch. AFP footage showed police operating in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba, alongside emergency response teams and bomb disposal expert. Security forces there inspected a crater near residential buildings, where the wreckage of charred cars lay below the mangled metal of destroyed balconies. The Soroka Hospital in the city was struck on Thursday, injuring 40 people. Israel, saying Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, launched a massive wave of strikes on June 13, triggering an immediate retaliation from Tehran. Residential areas in both countries have suffered, while Israel and Iran have traded accusations of targeting civilians. At least 25 people have been killed in Israel by Iranian missile strikes, according to authorities. Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. bur-ds/adp/ami

The Hill

2 hours ago

• The Hill

Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid speak to each other for first time in weeks

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — After not speaking to each other for eight weeks, Republican nominees Winsome Earle-Sears and John Reid have spoken to each other. Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican nominee for Virginia's governor, spoke to John Reid, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, on Wednesday after eight weeks since they last spoke, according to a source familiar with the situation. The Republican Party of Virginia posted to X on Wednesday, the day after the primaries, that Virginia Republicans are 'UNITED behind our ticket and ready to FIGHT and WIN this November,' with photos of Earle-Sears, Reid and Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. Earle-Sears is facing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the race for governor, and Reid is facing state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic nominee, in the race for lieutenant governor. This follows controversy surrounding Reid and a call by Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) urging him to step down after Youngkin learned that Reid may be connected to a Tumblr account that previously shared sexually explicit images. Reid said the account isn't his. This week's primaries were a historic moment for Virginia, with Reid being the first openly gay man to receive a major party's endorsement for statewide office in the state. In addition, Virginia is set to get its first female governor. Further, Hashmi is the first Muslim and the first Indian-American to be nominated to appear on the ballot for a Virginia statewide office.