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ECONOMY
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Inflation more urgent tariff issue right now, Fed's Kugler says
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler.
Al Drago/Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said President Donald Trump's trade policy currently has more pressing implications for inflation than for economic growth. Kugler said consumers' moves to purchase products before newly announced tariffs take effect may be offering support for economic activity in early 2025, while there are signs the changes in trade policy are already putting some upward pressure on prices. 'The takeaway is that I view, right now, inflation as being more pressing as far as the effects of tariffs that we're already seeing,' Kugler said during a question-and-answer session Monday at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. 'Maybe this frontloading is going to help, at least in terms of keeping economic activity at the beginning of the year.' She made the comment in describing the tension between how the Fed would typically respond in the case of a weakening economy compared with times of accelerating inflation. Trump last week unveiled sweeping and aggressive tariffs on US trading partners, which analysts broadly estimate will both slow economic growth and cause higher inflation. 'If we tighten policy, we may weaken the economy. We ease policy, on the other hand, we may drive inflation higher,' Kugler said. 'So we have to be very careful in how we navigate this period.' — BLOOMBERG NEWS
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ENTERTAINMENT
'Minecraft' movie's $163 million debut is year's best so far
Jack Black attends the world premiere of "A Minecraft Movie" at Cineworld Leicester Square on March 30 in London, England.for Warner Bros. Pictures
A Minecraft Movie, a Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. film based on the namesake video game, opened at No. 1 in US and Canadian theaters this weekend, marking the biggest debut this year. The picture, co-produced by Legendary Entertainment, delivered weekend sales of $163 million, Warner Bros. said Monday in a statement, storming past industry tracker Box Office Pro's forecast of $85 million to $100 million. The film took in an additional $150.7 million in theaters internationally. Estimates for the movie soared last week based on advanced ticket-buying data. The live-action comedy and fantasy picture stars Jack Black and Jason Momoa as misfits pulled into a cubic world based on the game. The tally marked the largest opening weekend ever for a film based on a video game and continues a string of recent successes for such movies, including The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Sonic the Hedgehog 3. The film overcame a 49 percent critics' score on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. The debut is good news for domestic theaters, which had seen ticket sales slide 11 percent before the start of the weekend. — BLOOMBERG NEWS
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AIR TRAVEL
Spirit Air's CEO steps down after emergence from bankruptcy
A Spirit Airlines aircraft prepares to depart from the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on Nov. 13, 2024, in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell/Getty
Spirit Airlines said Chief Executive Officer Ted Christie is stepping down, less than a month after the pioneering discount carrier emerged from bankruptcy. Christie's departure from the company and the board is effective immediately, parent Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. said Monday in a statement. Until a successor is named, the company will be led by three top executives. Matt Klein, the carrier's chief commercial officer, also is leaving. The surprise CEO change caps a rocky few years for Spirit, which nearly merged with JetBlue Airways Corp. before that deal was blocked on antitrust grounds. Spirit has struggled to keep costs manageable as an independent airline, and filed for bankruptcy late last year. The company recently engaged in unsuccessful combination talks with Frontier Group Holdings Inc. before emerging from bankruptcy last month. Christie had served as CEO since 2019, and joined the carrier in 2012 as chief financial officer. He previously worked at Frontier as chief financial officer. Spirit will be led temporarily by a newly formed office of the president that will include CFO Fred Cromer, Chief Operating Officer John Bendoraitis and General Counsel Thomas Canfield. — BLOOMBERG NEWS
INTERNATIONAL
US blocks sea salt imports from South Korean salt farm over forced labor concerns
A salt farm owner walks around his salt farm on Sinui Island, South Korea, on Feb. 19, 2014.
Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press
The United States has blocked imports of sea salt products from a major South Korean salt farm accused of using slave labor, becoming the first trade partner to take punitive action against a decadeslong problem on salt farms in remote islands off South Korea's southwest coast. US Customs and Border Protection issued a withhold release order against the Taepyung salt farm, saying information 'reasonably indicates' the use of forced labor at the company in the island county of Sinan, where most of South Korea's sea salt products are made. Under the order issued last Wednesday, Customs personnel at all US ports of entry are required to hold sea salt products sourced from the farm. Taepyung is South Korea's largest salt farm, producing about 16,000 tons of salt annually, which accounts for approximately 6 percent of the country's total output, according to government data, and is a major supplier to South Korean food companies. The farm, located on Jeungdo island in Sinan and leasing most of its salt fields to tenants, has been repeatedly accused of using forced labor, including in 2014 and 2021. South Korean officials stated that this was the first time a foreign government had suspended imports from a South Korean company due to concerns over forced labor. In a statement to The Associated Press on Monday, South Korea's Foreign Ministry said relevant government agencies, including the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, have been taking steps to address labor practices at Taepyung since 2021. While not providing direct evidence, it said it assesses that none of the salt produced there now is sourced from forced labor. The ministry said it plans to 'actively engage' in discussions with the US officials over the matter. The fisheries ministry said it plans to promptly review the necessary measures to seek the lifting of the US order. — ASSOCIATED PRESS
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TECHNOLOGY
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Microsoft workers say they've been fired after 50th anniversary protest over Israel contract
A sign is seen at the Microsoft headquarters on July 3, 2024, in Redmond, Wash.
David Ryder/Getty
Microsoft has fired two employees who interrupted the company's 50th anniversary celebration to protest its work supplying artificial intelligence technology to the Israeli military, according to a group representing the workers. Microsoft didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Monday. The protests began Friday when Microsoft software engineer Ibtihal Aboussad walked up to a stage where an executive was announcing new product features and a long-term vision for Microsoft's AI ambitions. 'You claim that you care about using AI for good but Microsoft sells AI weapons to the Israeli military,' Aboussad shouted at Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman. 'Fifty-thousand people have died and Microsoft powers this genocide in our region.' The protest forced Suleyman to pause his talk, which was livestreamed from Microsoft's campus in Redmond, Washington. Among the participants at the 50th anniversary of Microsoft's founding were co-founder Bill Gates and former CEO Steve Ballmer. 'Thank you for your protest, I hear you,' Suleyman said. Aboussad continued, shouting that Suleyman and 'all of Microsoft' had blood on their hands. She also threw onto the stage a keffiyeh scarf, which has become a symbol of support for Palestinian people, before being escorted out of the event. A second protester, Microsoft employee Vaniya Agrawal, interrupted a later part of the event. — ASSOCIATED PRESS

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Avoid the OAS Clawback: Dividend Strategies Every Retiree Should Know

Written by Kay Ng at The Motley Fool Canada For many Canadian retirees, the Old Age Security (OAS) pension is a welcome source of income. But for those with moderate to high retirement income, the OAS clawback — officially known as the OAS recovery tax — can reduce or even eliminate this benefit. Fortunately, with the right dividend strategies, retirees can build a reliable income stream while minimizing their exposure to the clawback. As of 2025, the OAS clawback begins when your net income exceeds $93,454. For every dollar above this threshold, you lose $0.15 of OAS benefits. This can result in thousands of dollars in lost income annually. Net income, for tax purposes, includes interest income, Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) withdrawals, and even capital gains. However, eligible Canadian dividends (and income or gains received inside a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA)) — can provide tax-efficient income and help retirees avoid hitting that clawback threshold. Dividends from Canadian corporations benefit from the dividend tax credit, which significantly reduces the effective tax rate for your Canadian dividend income compared to interest income or RRIF withdrawals. This makes Canadian dividend stocks an essential part of any OAS-conscious retirement strategy. Even better, dividends, interests, and gains earned inside a TFSA are completely tax-free — they don't count as income for OAS purposes at all. TELUS (TSX:T) is a dividend stock worthy for retirees to take a closer look at. As one of Canada's Big Three telecom providers, TELUS offers stable cash flows and a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders. Dividend yield: Currently, TELUS offers a dividend yield of approximately 7.5% — well above the Canadian stock market yield of about 2.7%. Payout frequency: TELUS pays dividends quarterly, giving retirees regular, reliable income. Dividend growth: TELUS tends to increase its dividend semi-annually. Last month, it just announced a new plan, targeting annual dividend growth of 3-8% from 2026 through 2028. Sector stability: High debt levels and capital-intensive investments are a common theme in the telecom sector. As well, the sector is faced with increasing competition and pricing pressure. That said, TELUS continues to generate substantial operating cash flows. Furthermore, it targets a long-term payout ratio that's 60-75% of its free cash flow. For retirees looking to build a dependable income stream without pushing their net income into OAS clawback territory, TELUS is a solid idea. Use a TFSA first: If you have excess room in your TFSA, you can consider holding some big-dividend stocks like TELUS in your TFSA to keep that income out of your taxable net income. Otherwise, hold big-dividend Canadian stocks in your non-registered account to enjoy the dividend tax credit. Delay RRSP withdrawals. Consider delaying RRIF conversions until age 72, and in the meantime, draw from non-registered accounts or the TFSA. Split pension income. If you have a spouse, pension income splitting can lower one's income and reduce the chance of hitting the clawback threshold. Limit interest-heavy investments. Guaranteed Investment Certificates and bond interest are fully taxable and can quickly drive up net income. Favour eligible dividends instead if it makes sense for your situation. Watch capital gains. Selling stocks with large unrealized gains in a non-registered account could push you into clawback territory. Aim to harvest capital gains strategically in non-registered accounts or target these gains in your TFSA. The OAS clawback is a real risk for many Canadian retirees — but with a smart dividend strategy, it can be minimized or even avoided entirely. Dividend stocks like TELUS, when held in tax-efficient accounts, can provide steady income without the tax drag. By planning carefully and making tax-smart investment decisions, you can protect both your OAS benefits and your retirement lifestyle. The post Avoid the OAS Clawback: Dividend Strategies Every Retiree Should Know appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada. More reading Made in Canada: 5 Homegrown Stocks Ready for the 'Buy Local' Revolution [PREMIUM PICKS] Market Volatility Toolkit Best Canadian Stocks to Buy in 2025 Beginner Investors: 4 Top Canadian Stocks to Buy for 2025 5 Years From Now, You'll Probably Wish You Grabbed These Stocks Subscribe to Motley Fool Canada on YouTube Fool contributor Kay Ng has a position in TELUS. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 2025

New York Post

an hour ago

• New York Post

Federal Reserve may need less forward guidance in uncertain times, San Francisco Fed chief says

The US central bank should consider giving less forward guidance about its monetary policy intentions, particularly in uncertain times, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Sunday. 'Words have power, which is a great tool. But words can be harder to reverse than the interest rate,' Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Western Economic Association International annual conference that did not include any comments on the economic or monetary policy outlook. 'They set expectations, which can be hard to change in the event the economy evolves differently than we expect.' San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly. Bloomberg via Getty Images In 2021, the Fed said it would keep expanding its balance sheet and would not raise rates until inflation was on track to exceed its 2% goal for some time, an approach it felt was warranted given that inflation had under-run the 2% goal for years. Analysts and many Fed policymakers now say they believe the Fed was late to start raising rates to fight rising inflation in part because of this definitive guidance. 'The lesson for me from that period is that being definitive in highly uncertain times comes with a price,' Daly said. The central bank should, she said, be flexible and dynamic in how it communicates to the public. The Fed is currently reevaluating its policy framework, and Daly said her remarks were not specifically about that effort. The Fed is also expected to redo its approach to communications, including potential changes to its so-called 'dot plot' setting out Fed policymakers' expected rate paths and used by markets as a guide to where the Fed expects rates to go.

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2 hours ago

• Miami Herald

Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran

The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday changes the focus of what's ahead for the U.S. economy in the last full week of June. Because everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do, other than fire missiles on Israel. That's what happened late Saturday. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The three biggest questions a day later: How will energy and stock markets react?Does Iran still have enough enriched uranium to make and deploy a small nuclear weapon?Will Iran move to block the ships from passing from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into global shipping lanes? Outside geopolitics, economic events coming up include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday and an important inflation report. Related: Netflix analysts turn heads with stock price target updates The nuclear question is on the table because U.S. officials weren't sure Sunday if the attacks on facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan actually destroyed nuclear materials. Vice President J.D. Vance, in fact, suggested that Iran's nuclear stock pile is still intact. If that's the case, it's possible Iran could assemble a first-generation weapon. That would be as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Robert Pape of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats told MSNBC's Alex Witt on Sunday. Not having this awful idea become reality depends on cooler heads prevailing. A key issue: If Iran is willing to discuss destroying or otherwise ceding control its nuclear development efforts. The Trump Administration is threatening more attacks if Iran rejects the demand. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's crude oil passes - headed mostly to China, India and Asia - will send global oil prices surging and, ultimately, will boost gasoline prices in the United States and elsewhere. Stocks and bonds also would slump. ChinaCrude oil futures in New York opened up nearly $3 a barrel, then fell back quickly. At 7:30 p.m. EDT, crude was was up $2.12 to $75.99. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped to as high as $81.40, then fell back to $79.20 per barrel, up $2.19 Crude oil settled at $73.84 a barrel on Friday, up 34 cents. or 1.2%, from Thursday and up 21.5% so far in June. AAA's daily report on gasoline prices put the U.S. average at $3.218 a gallon, down slightly from Saturday's $3.129. Stock index futures were lower in early trading Sunday with S&P 500 futures off 28 points to 5,990. Futures based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 184 points to 42,333. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen 137 points to 21,710. Stocks overall were flat last week even as global tensions heated up. Some defense-oriented stocks slipped on Friday. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was off 2% to $137.30. Lockheed Martin (LMT) , however, was up 0.4% to $470.56. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is always verbally battered by President Trump, will testify before the Congress twice this week. The questions almost certainly focus on the Iran situation and its impact on the economy. He will also have to explain why the Fed is so stubborn about NOT cutting its key federal funds rate. The Fed decided last week to leave its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. One Fed governor, Christopher Waller, who voted in support of holding rates steady, thinks a rate cut could come in July. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, thinks the Fed will have better information by September. The federal funds rate mostly affects short-term rates. Bond yields influence rates on, say, home mortgages and auto loans. The 30-year mortgage rate was just under 7% on Friday. Powell's first appearance is before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest ratesMassive city workers union approves strikeAnalyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold The most important economic report this coming week is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate. The index for May is expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year index. The core index, stripping out food and energy, is expected to rise 2.6%, up slightly from April. The inflation rate is still the lowest since March 2021, Barrons says. Four reports come this week that will help clarify the condition of the housing market. Existing homes sales for May, due Monday from the National Association of Realtors. Most estimates are around 4.1 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, up From April's 4 million rate. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due Tuesday from Standard & Poor' sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. Pending home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders. S&P Global reports its flash purchasing manager index reports for June. These measure what manufacturing and services companies are actually buying. The Conference Board comes out with its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report for June Tuesday morning It may show a slight gain because the data were collected as stocks were rallying after April's stock-market slump. The University of Michigan offers its revised Consumer Sentiment Index report on Friday. Its early version suggested consumers were a touch less worried and cited the market rally. Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.