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First Post
11 hours ago
- Business
- First Post
Israeli strikes big worry for Iran's economic lifeline China, its years-long West Asia gambit at risk
Israel's recent attacks on Iran have raised serious concerns in China, threatening to disrupt Beijing's key energy supply routes and its hopes for a bigger role in the region, according to a report read more Israel's recent attacks on Iran have raised serious concerns in China, threatening to disrupt Beijing's key energy supply routes and its hopes for a bigger role in the region. For years, China has relied on its ties with Iran to secure a steady flow of discounted crude oil and expand its geopolitical footprint in the region. As the world's largest oil importer, China has made Iranian and broader Gulf energy supplies a cornerstone of its energy strategy. But escalating tensions between Israel and Iran now risk cutting China off from some of its most critical trading partners, according to a Financial Times report. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As Iran-Israel conflict rages, Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged all sides to de-escalate the conflict 'as soon as possible.' Beijing has also pushed back against US sanctions on Tehran, insisting that Washington should not interfere with its 'normal trade' with Iran. 'Of course, China is worried (by the latest attacks),' Financial Times quoted Gedaliah Afterman, an expert on China and the Middle East at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations in Israel, as saying. 'If this situation continues to escalate, then they lose quite a bit, both in terms of their energy security and Iran as a strategic card that China holds,' Afterman added. Beijing Tehran's key economic lifeline Since the US ramped up sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme in 2018, Beijing has emerged as Tehran's key economic lifeline. China now buys the bulk of Iranian oil and supplies it with machinery, electronics, vehicles, and nuclear equipment. In 2024, Iranian crude made up nearly 15% of China's oil imports. Overall, China imported about 11.1 million barrels per day, according to the report, citing US Energy Information Administration. Chinese imports of Iranian crude rose steadily through 2023 and much of 2024 but began declining late last year as fears of tougher US sanctions grew, according to the Financial Times report, citing data from Kpler and Bernstein. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In September 2024, Iran exported 2.4 million barrels per day, with China buying 1.6 million. By April 2025, exports had dropped to 2.1 million barrels, with China's share falling to 740,000 barrels per day. Analysts note that much of Iran's oil is relabelled or rerouted through countries like Malaysia to bypass sanctions. Fitch Ratings said this week that even a complete loss of Iranian oil could be offset by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers. However, the broader risk looms: the conflict threatens to spread, and Iran has warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which hundreds of billions of dollars in Gulf oil, including from Saudi Arabia, flow annually to China. China doesn't publicly disclose its strategic petroleum reserve levels, but estimates suggest it has 90–100 days of supply in case of disruptions, Financial Times quoted Michal Meidan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies as saying While China increasingly depends on Saudi oil, over 25% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in 2024 came from Qatar and the UAE, added the report, citing S&P Global. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Despite holding 15 long-term LNG contracts with both countries, analysts warn that any supply shock could force China to buy on the spot market at significantly higher prices. For China, the Israel-Iran crisis war comes amid a tectonic shift in the country's energy mix. The country has for decades been the world's biggest oil user. China eyes energy independence Under Xi, China is racing to boost its energy independence, a transition that ultimately requires a massive increase in renewable energy and the electrification of the country's transport and manufacturing base. A boom in solar and wind has taken renewables' share of electricity power plant capacity to 56 per cent last year, up from around one-third a decade ago. Neil Beveridge, head of Asia-Pacific research at Bernstein, told Financial Times that the 'key takeaway' for Xi's administration from the crisis will be to double down on its self-sufficiency drive. 'If it wasn't happening fast enough before, it will be happening even faster now,' Beveridge was quoted as saying. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD According to Financial Times, citing analysts, China could gain short-term relief as US attention shifts to the Middle East, easing pressure on Beijing. But in the long term, a weakened Iran could erode China's regional influence and challenge its image as a global mediator. China-Iran ties Beijing signed a 25-year cooperation deal with Tehran in 2021, and Iran joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023, part of China's push to offer an alternative to US-led institutions. China also brokered a Saudi-Iran deal and proposed a 12-point peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, its muted response to the Iran-Israel conflict, much like during last year's collapse of ally Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, underscores the limits of its diplomatic reach. Jingdong Yuan, director of the China and Asia security programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Financial Times that while China rhetorically supports countries 'seen as receiving unfair treatment or coercion from the West', in reality Beijing's approach to regional conflicts was 'always cautious'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Beijing will be concerned about the impact on other allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia. 'The demise or the collapse of the Iranian system or the Iranian power as we knew it is not good news for China,' Financial Times quoted Yun Sun, an expert on Chinese foreign policy with the Stimson Center, a US think-tank, as saying. 'That indirectly means that American influence has expanded,' Yun Sun added. With inputs from agencies
News18
11 hours ago
- Business
- News18
The Strait Of Hormuz: Has Iran Ever Closed The World's Most Critical Oil Route?
Last Updated: For decades, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions with Israel hit new highs, the question returns: Has it ever done it? And what happens if it does now? For over half a century, the Strait of Hormuz has served as the world's most vital energy corridor. Connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, this narrow waterway, just 21 nautical miles wide at its tightest point, is the main transit route for oil and gas exports from some of the most energy-rich nations on the planet. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and the UAE all depend on it to get their crude to global markets. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), nearly 20–21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every single day, roughly a fifth of the world's daily consumption. It is also a key route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially from Qatar. Any disruption here doesn't just rattle West Asia; it shakes energy markets across the globe. And yet, despite decades of political brinkmanship, proxy wars, sanctions, drone attacks and naval showdowns, the Strait of Hormuz has never once been fully shut in modern history. Has The Strait Ever Been Closed? No. But It Has Come Close One of the most persistent myths about West Asia's conflicts is that Iran has previously blocked the Strait of Hormuz. While it is true that Tehran has repeatedly threatened to do so, sometimes in response to sanctions, sometimes as political posturing, it has never followed through. During the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, both sides launched attacks on oil tankers in what became known as the 'Tanker War." Iran mined parts of the Gulf and used fast-attack boats to target Kuwaiti and Saudi tankers. Iraq retaliated with missile strikes. The conflict led the United States to intervene, reflagging Kuwaiti tankers and escorting them with US warships under Operation Earnest Will. Several ships were damaged, some sunk, and global oil prices spiked. But crucially, the Strait remained open throughout, battered but not blocked. In 2011 and 2012, Iran once again threatened to close the Strait in response to European and American sanctions targeting its oil exports and banking system. Senior Iranian officials, including then-Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, warned of a complete shutdown if oil sanctions were enforced. Western powers responded swiftly, dispatching naval forces to the region. The United States, the UK and France conducted high-visibility naval exercises, making it clear that any attempt to blockade Hormuz would provoke military retaliation. Iran, ultimately, did not escalate further. More recently, in 2019, tensions soared after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed 'maximum pressure" sanctions on Tehran. Iran was blamed for attacks on tankers near the Strait and was caught seizing a British-flagged oil tanker, the Stena Impero. A US surveillance drone was also shot down by Iranian forces. Once again, fears of closure gripped global markets. Yet even amid these flashpoints, the Strait remained navigable. Why Has It Never Been Fully Shut? Iran's threats to block the Strait have historically served as a geopolitical lever — a way to raise the stakes without firing the first shot. But a full closure has always been a risky gambit, not least because it would come at a huge cost to Iran itself. About 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports also pass through the Strait. Blocking it would strangle its own economy, already crippled by sanctions, and isolate it further. Moreover, the move would likely be interpreted as an act of war, giving the US and its allies legal and political justification for direct military intervention. With the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquartered in Bahrain, any closure attempt would be met with overwhelming naval force. Diplomatic costs aside, Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also taken measures to reduce vulnerability by building overland pipelines that bypass Hormuz altogether. Though these pipelines don't eliminate dependence entirely, they offer partial mitigation. As a result, Iran's leadership, while often willing to provoke, threaten, or harass shipping, has historically stopped short of a full blockade. So What Makes The Current Crisis Different? The Israel–Iran conflict in 2025 is distinct not because missiles are flying, they've flown before, but because of the scale, openness, and maritime dimension of the escalation. Three developments make this round far more volatile than previous flare-ups. Israel has publicly acknowledged direct strikes on multiple key Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak. These aren't isolated incidents or covert sabotage attempts. They are deliberate, declared military actions against some of the most protected and strategically vital components of Iran's nuclear programme. This is a sharp departure from previous Israeli operations. In earlier years, Israel was widely believed to be behind cyberattacks like Stuxnet (2010), mysterious explosions at Natanz (2020), and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (2020), but never formally admitted responsibility. Those were covert, plausibly deniable moves aimed at slowing Iran's nuclear progress without crossing into full-scale war. Record ballistic missile barrages deep into civilian areas While Iran has previously launched missiles, including during escalations in 2024, this round was unprecedented in both scale and intensity. Iranian forces fired hundreds of ballistic missiles, including Sejjil-class and newer variants, toward Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Be'er Sheva. One missile landed on the grounds of Soroka Medical Centre, injuring civilians. The combination of sheer volume, trajectory over densely populated areas, and civilian casualties represents a deliberate escalation meant to pressure the Israeli public. Israel publicly declaring Khamenei a wartime target In a major rhetorical escalation, Israel has shifted from opposing Iran's nuclear ambitions to directly targeting its top leadership. On June 19, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz explicitly declared that ' Khamenei cannot continue to exist," calling him a 'modern Hitler" and blaming him for ordering missile strikes on Israeli civilian infrastructure. Complementing Katz's statement, a Reuters report quoted Israeli officials as saying that the June airstrikes were not just about dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, but were also aimed at 'breaking the foundations of Khamenei's rule" and weakening the regime's internal grip on power. This is the first time Israel has publicly identified Ayatollah Khamenei himself as part of its war objectives. Previous conflicts, even at their peak, focused on Iran's weapons programmes or proxy forces. What Happens If The Strait Is Closed, Even Temporarily? Even a temporary disruption to the flow of oil through Hormuz would have serious global repercussions. Energy markets are already jittery. A full blockade could send oil prices soaring past $120–130 per barrel within days. Shipping insurance premiums would spike. LNG supply chains, particularly to Asia, would be severely impacted. Major energy importers like China, Japan, South Korea and India would feel the heat almost immediately. Naval deployments would increase across the board, and the chances of accidental escalation between rival warships or submarines would rise sharply. The US has already repositioned key naval assets in the Gulf, including aircraft carriers and guided missile destroyers. Freight delays, insurance re-pricing, and investor anxiety could together inflict real damage on the global economy. India: Energy Security and Strategic Stakes India imports more than 60 per cent of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, sourcing supplies from key partners such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. Given this dependency, any prolonged disruption in the strait could affect energy flows and pricing, but Indian officials have sought to project calm amid rising tensions. Speaking to News18, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri offered reassurance, stating: 'Even if everything goes wrong, we have enough oil." He explained that out of the 5.5 million barrels of crude oil India imports daily, around 1.5 million barrels come via the Hormuz route. 'The worry will be if the strait is closed or choked," he noted, adding that 'there are many countries that would not want it to be shut." Puri emphasised that while India is monitoring the situation closely, the Strait of Hormuz has not been closed in the last 50 years, even during high-tension phases. 'I would use the word anxiety, not worry," he said. 'There have been many phases of heightened tensions in the region, but energy does not stop flowing." India's Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) provide an additional cushion, covering approximately 9–10 days of national demand. Conclusion: A Strait Always On The Brink top videos View all The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a strategic waterway; it is a geopolitical barometer. Its status reflects the tensions in West Asia, and the current indicators are flashing red. While history shows that Iran has never actually closed the Strait, the dynamics in 2025 are markedly different: open hostilities, regional spillover, and the growing likelihood of US intervention. Whether Iran crosses that final line, and whether the world can afford the consequences, remains to be seen. About the Author Karishma Jain Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @ More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : Israel-Iran tensions Strait of Hormuz Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 20, 2025, 12:22 IST News explainers The Strait Of Hormuz: Has Iran Ever Closed The World's Most Critical Oil Route?
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Automotive
- Yahoo
New England region gas prices essentially unchanged from last week: See how much here
Regional gas prices are essentially unchanged last week and reached an average of $2.96 per gallon of regular fuel on Monday, approximately the same as last week's price, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The average fuel price in the New England region declined about 4 cents since last month. According to the EIA, gas prices across the region in the last year have been as low as $2.92 on April 14, 2025, and as high as $3.50 on July 15, 2024. A year ago, the average gas price in the New England region was 14% higher at $3.46 per gallon. >> INTERACTIVE: See how your area's gas prices have changed over the years at . The average gas price in the United States last week was $3.14, making prices in the New England region about 5.8% lower than the nation's average. The average national gas price is higher than last week's average of $3.11 per gallon. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's tally of prices in the New England states includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. The USA TODAY Network is publishing localized versions of this story on its news sites across the country, generated with data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Please leave any feedback or corrections for this story here. This story was written by Ozge Terzioglu. Our News Automation and AI team would like to hear from you. Take this survey and share your thoughts with us. This article originally appeared on Burlington Free Press: New England region gas prices essentially unchanged from last week: See how much here
Indian Express
3 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
UAE coast guard evacuates 24 people from oil tanker crash east of Strait of Hormuz
The Emirati national guard said it evacuated 24 people from an oil tanker Tuesday after a collision between two ships just east of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. The crude oil tanker, ADALYNN, was bound for Egypt's Suez Canal when the crash in the Gulf of Oman happened. NASA FIRMS satellite data showed heat signatures in the area early morning. The United Arab Emirates national guard said it deployed its coast guard's search and rescue boats to the site, 24 nautical miles off the country's coast, and that the crew was evacuated to the port of Khor Fakkan. British maritime security firm Ambrey had earlier said that the incident was not security-related, as the days-long conflict between Israel and Iran, which is just across the Strait of Hormuz from neighbouring Oman, continued to unfold. The strait is the strategic maritime entryway to the Persian Gulf and sees about a fifth of the world's oil pass through it, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2024, an average of 20 million barrels of oil travelled through it daily. After Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on June 13, worry mounted over whether the Islamic Republic might block the waterway. Maritime ship experts say shipowners are increasingly wary of using the waterway, with some ships having tightened security and others cancelling routes there. As the Israel-Iran warfare intensified over the weekend, hundreds of ships in the strait saw spotty navigation signals and had to rely more on radar, though it wasn't immediately clear what caused Tuesday's incident. The Financial Times reported Friday that the world's largest publicly listed oil tanker company, Frontline, said it would turn down new contracts to sail into the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz after the Israel-Iran conflict broke out. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to climb as US futures were lower Tuesday morning after Israel's military issued an evacuation warning to 330,000 people in Iran's capital, Tehran. Tuesday's rescue came less than two weeks after the UAE national guard airlifted an injured man from an oil tanker to an Emirati hospital.
DW
3 days ago
- Business
- DW
Strait of Hormuz oil flows at risk amid Israel-Iran tensions – DW – 06/17/2025
The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world's most important gateway for oil transport. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have raised fears that shipping and crude flows through the narrow waterway may now slow down. The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway that lies between Oman and Iran, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) describes it as the "world's most important oil transit chokepoint." At its narrowest point, the waterway is just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide, with the shipping lane just two miles wide in either direction, making it crowded and perilous. Large volumes of crude extracted by OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq from oil fields across the Persian Gulf region and consumed globally flow through the strait. Around 20 million barrels of crude, condensate and fuels are estimated to flow via the waterway daily, according to data from Vortexa, an energy and freight market consultant. Qatar, one of the world's largest producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), relies heavily on the strait to ship its LNG exports. What's the current situation in the strait? The conflict between Israel and Iran has put renewed focus on security in the waterway. Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz for traffic in retaliation to Western pressure. Since the fighting between Israel and Iran broke out, however, there haven't been any major attacks on commercial shipping in the region. But shipowners are increasingly wary of using the waterway, with some ships having tightened security and others canceling routes there, the AP news agency reported. Electronic interference with commercial ship navigation systems has surged in recent days around the waterway and the wider Gulf, naval sources told the Reuters news agency. This interference is having an impact on vessels sailing through the region, they said. As there appears to be no immediate end to the conflict, markets remain on edge. Any blockade of the waterway or disruptions to oil flows could trigger a sharp spike in crude prices and hit energy importers hard, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, tanker rates for vessels carrying crude and refined oil products from the region have jumped in recent days. The cost to ship fuels from the Middle East to East Asia climbed almost 20% in three sessions to Monday, Bloomberg reported, citing data from the Baltic Exchange. Rates to East Africa, meanwhile, jumped more than 40%. Who will be most affected in case of supply disruption? The EIA estimates that 82% of crude and other fuel shipments that traversed the strait went to Asian consumers. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top destinations with these four countries together accounting for nearly 70% of all crude oil and condensate flows that traversed the strait. These markets would likely be most affected by supply disruptions in the strait. How will a closure affect Iran and Gulf states? If Iran takes action to close the strait, it could potentially draw military intervention from the United States. The US Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the area. Any move by Iran to disrupt oil flows through the waterway could also jeopardize Tehran's ties with Gulf Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — countries Iran has painstakingly improved relations with in recent years. Gulf Arab countries have so far criticized Israel for launching the strikes against Iran, but if Tehran's actions obstruct their oil exports, they might be pressured to side against Iran. Moreover, Tehran itself relies on the Strait of Hormuz to ship its oil to its customers, making it counterproductive to close the strait, say experts. "Iran's economy heavily relies on the free passage of goods and vessels through the seaway, as its oil exports are entirely sea-based," Reuters quoted JP Morgan analysts Natasha Kaneva, Prateek Kedia and Lyuba Savinova as saying. "Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran's relationship with its sole oil customer, China." Are there alternatives to the Hormuz Strait? Gulf Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sought alternative routes to bypass the strait in recent years. Both countries have set up infrastructure to transport some of their crude via other routes. Saudi Arabia, for instance, operates the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline with a capacity of five million barrels per day, while the UAE has a pipeline linking its onshore oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman. The EIA estimates that around 2.6 million barrels of crude per day could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of disruptions in the waterway. Edited by: Tim Rooks
