What We Know About How the 4-Day India and Pakistan Clashes Unfolded

The spark for the recent conflict between India and Pakistan was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir on April 22. India pointed to its neighbor's history of sheltering terrorist groups and initiated a cross-border military campaign.
It quickly escalated into four nights of clashes in which the two countries hit deeper into each other's territory than at any time in half a century, and that was unprecedented in how the use of new-generation technology created a dizzying escalation in the skies.
While the damage on both sides will take weeks and months to tally, particularly in a space of media blackouts and extreme disinformation, here is what we know about how the clashes played out.
The First Shots
In its opening round of airstrikes, in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, India struck targets deeper inside the enemy territory than it had in decades, and by all accounts had hit close enough to facilities associated with terrorist groups that it could claim victory.
But it quickly became clear that it had not been a clean strike, but more of a protracted dogfight between the two air forces — both sides with their jets in the sky going at each other, with the boundary between them as a line that neither crossed. And India lost aircraft in the exchanges, including at least two of its most advanced fighter jets.
The Escalations
On the second day, as a diplomatic push for an off-ramp intensified, India said it had thwarted a Pakistani attempt overnight to hit military targets across over a dozen border cities and towns. In response, it had taken the kind of action that analysts say almost always escalates a conflict: It struck sensitive military targets, particularly air defense systems in the Pakistani city of Lahore.
'A move like that is quite strident and would have concerned Pakistani forces, because in other contexts, taking out air defenses is a prelude to more serious action,' said Kim Heriot-Darragh, a strategic and defense analyst at the Australia India Institute. 'You'd knock out defenses to open a corridor through which aircraft could fly and strike their actual target.'
Diplomats and analysts are uncertain about just how the events of early Thursday morning played out, but it is clear that something major had changed and was seen as an important shift in the pattern of escalation. Whether Pakistan was using a mass of drone incursions and missiles to actually try to hit India's military sites or just to warn India and probe its air-defense systems for something bigger later is still unclear.
Pakistan's astonishing official response — a complete denial that it had done anything on the second night — left two explanations for the events: that it was just a probing mission that Pakistan did not want to distract from the actual retaliation that was coming, or that it was an initial retaliation that had not succeeded.
But India nonetheless took the opportunity to actually damage crucial Pakistani military sites, and with that all bets were off. Pakistan vowed it would retaliate. The only way the escalation could be arrested was the way it had always been: with an outside power stepping in to tell both sides to knock it off.
Alarm Over Strategic Sites
On the nights of Friday and Saturday, the situation escalated rapidly to an air war with few holds barred, but in which ground forces had not been moved.
Pakistan launched a massive campaign of drone and missile strikes, targeting military bases across several Indian cities — this time with clear acknowledgment from the Indian side that not only there was damage to some bases and equipment, but also that it had lost security personnel.
There was clear evidence that India had also managed to create damage on the Pakistani side, targeting air fields and more defense systems, and also striking near one of Pakistan's crucial strategic headquarters.
What alarmed the United States, and intensified the diplomatic push for the cease-fire that was announced late on Saturday, was not only that the two sides were increasing strikes to sensitive sites but also just what the next step in a rapid escalation ladder for two alarmed nuclear powers could mean.
What Is Ahead
While the scores are still being tallied, and damage assessed, the four days may have fundamentally changed the reality of conflict in this part of the world toward noncontact warfare: barrages from a distance until the very last stages of battle, but still leading to escalation and the potential loss of restraint.
The abundance of new-generation technology, particularly cheap drones and loitering munitions, might initially suggest more precision targeting and less human cost. But in this latest India-Pakistan conflict, those technologies still prompted a cycle of escalation that led to concerns that the use of nuclear weapons could be put on the table.

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I see @SangerNYT asked why Israel hasn't hit the stockpile of enriched uranium. My understanding is that the hex is stored in the tunnels at Isfahan and Israel hasn't been able to destroy the hard, deeply buried targets. Thread. — Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) June 16, 2025 Overall, Israeli strikes in Iran have killed 224 people since Friday, according to an Iranian Ministry of Health spokesperson. Also noteworthy is IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin's claim that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has now established 'full aerial superiority' over the Iranian capital, Tehran. Clearly, Israel launched its operation with the aim of degrading Iran's air force and air defenses. Suppression and destruction of enemy air defense (SEAD/DEAD) sorties were emphasized from the start, and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) has been struck heavily on the ground. In the last couple of days, we've also had more evidence of IAF fighters roaming further east over Iran. 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Some confusion–there were NO INJURIES to US Personnel at US Embassy Branch–the minor damage to property were from the shock waves (i.e. "concussions") from the nearby blast. Not human concussions. Repeat–NO INJURIES thank God! — Ambassador Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) June 16, 2025 Some of the damage inside of the U.S. Embassy Branch Office in Tel-Aviv, caused by this morning's ballistic missile attack by Iran. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025 As well as missiles coming from Iran, at least one missile was also fired overnight toward Israel by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen. Israel's military said that the Houthi missile came down before entering Israeli territory, although it's unclear if it malfunctioned or if it was brought down by air defenses. Yesterday, the Houthis confirmed that they had targeted Israel in coordination with Iran, the first time an Iran-aligned group publicly announced this kind of involvement in the current conflict. 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'The boastful dictator from Tehran has turned into a cowardly murderer, deliberately firing at Israel's civilian home front in an attempt to deter the [IDF] from continuing the offensive that is crippling his capabilities,' Katz wrote on his Telegram channel. 'The residents of Tehran will pay the price — and soon.' Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, accuses Iran of targeting Israeli civilians in its overnight in the very next breath, he appears to threaten Iranian civilians, saying "residents of Iran will pay the price." — Matt Bradley (@MattMcBradley) June 16, 2025 Katz then walked back those comments, stating that Israel has 'no intention' of deliberately harming the residents of Tehran. 'I wish to clarify the obvious: there is no intention to physically harm the residents of Tehran as the murderous dictator does to the residents of Israel,' Katz said. 'The residents of Tehran will have to pay the price of dictatorship and evacuate their homes from areas where it will be necessary to attack regime targets and security infrastructures in Tehran.' There are reports that Iran has executed an individual accused of spying for Israel. The semi-official Fars agency reported that the man was found guilty of spying for Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. According to Reuters, this was the third such execution in recent weeks. Ismail Fekri, the alleged Mossad spy executed this morning by Iran. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 16, 2025 With speculation that U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers may be headed to the region, perhaps to directly support Israeli activities, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Iran doesn't want the conflict to spill over into neighboring countries — unless forced to do so. Good the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group. A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR. — Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) June 16, 2025 Araghchi pointed specifically to the Israeli strikes on the offshore South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar, describing them as 'a blatant aggression and a very dangerous act.' The foreign minister warned Israel that 'dragging the conflict to the Persian Gulf is a strategic mistake, and its aim is to drag the war beyond Iranian territory.' Iranian state-run media has confirmed strikes recently targeted the Phase 14 Refinery of the South Pars Gas Field, the Fajr Jam Natural Gas Refinery, and the Kangan LNG Port on the coast of the Persian Gulf, all in the Bushehr Province of Southern Iran. It appears that Israel has… — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 14, 2025 Araghchi said he believed that the United States took part in the recent Israeli attacks, something that Washington has consistently denied. 'Israel's attack would never have happened without the U.S. green light and support,' Araghchi said. 'It is necessary for the United States to condemn Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if they want to prove their goodwill.' Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:Iran will stop attacks on Israel if it stops aggression against the Islamic Republic. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 15, 2025 More evidence is coming to light on the results of Israeli attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination at Natanz, the site of Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility, following Israeli strikes on Friday. 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The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that the sudden loss of power at the Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran, resulting from Friday's airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force, may have destroyed some of the roughly 14,000 underground centrifuges, which are are fragile… — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025 'Imploding' the two enrichment halls at Natanz is not as hard as destroying the tunnels at Fordow but it would be the most impressive thing the Israelis have done so far against nuclear sites. — Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) June 16, 2025 Today, Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said that there was 'no indication of a physical attack' on the underground section of the Natanz uranium enrichment. This comes after satellite evidence confirmed destruction and/or damage to the plant's above-ground section. 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The Iranians haven't killed an American, and discussion of killing political leaders should not be on the table.' A U.S. Official told me: "Since the operation commenced the Isrealis had an opportunity to kill the Supreme Leader. We communicated to the Israelis that President Trump is opposed to that. The Iranians haven't killed an American and discussion of killing political leaders… — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 15, 2025 According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and wants to restart talks over its nuclear programs. Unnamed officials in the Middle East and Europe told the WSJ that Tehran was sending messages to Israel and the United States via Arab intermediaries. President Trump, meanwhile, warned that 'Iran is not winning this war.' Speaking to journalists, Trump said that Tehran was trying to talk with Washington, but he suggested that such efforts might be too late. 'They'd like to talk, but they should have done that before,' Trump said. The president also didn't rule out potential U.S. military involvement in the conflict. When asked what it would take for the United States to enter the conflict, his response was a terse 'We'll see.' "Yeah," Iran is backchanneling to US, Trump tells us in Canada. "They'd like to talk but they should have done that before," he said. "Iran is not winning this war." — Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) June 16, 2025 This is a developing story, and we will continue to update it as more information becomes Israel and Iran continue to pummel each other, additional U.S. military assets are heading to the Middle East. That includes the USS Nimitz super carrier as well as an armada of refueling aircraft and what a U.S. official told us were 'defensive forces' designed to give American commanders greater options. You can read more about that here. Major U.S. Middle East-Focused Buildup ConfirmedThe Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is now rushing to the Middle East and a snap deployment of tankers has landed at bases across the — The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) June 16, 2025 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News on Monday that killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would end the ongoing fighting and did not rule out an attempt on his life. When asked by ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl about reports from ABC News and other outlets that President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, concerned that it would escalate the conflict, Netanyahu said, 'It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict.' Asked if Israel would target the supreme leader, Netanyahu said that Israel was 'doing what we need to do.' 'I'm not going to get into the details, but we've targeted their top nuclear scientists,' Netanyahu told the network. 'It's basically Hitler's nuclear team.' Speaking earlier to ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he is not interested in further nuclear talks or negotiations with Iran, adding that Israel would target Iranian Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei if need be, stating about Khamenei's potential… — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025 The IRGC claimed that in the past 72 hours, 'we have continuously and without interruption targeted targets throughout the occupied territories with 545 attack drones, and these operations will continue,' the official Iranian Fars news agency stated. IRGC Spokesperson: Over the past 72 hours, we have continuously and without interruption targeted objectives across the occupied territories with 545 attack drones—and these operations will continue.#OpTruePromise3 — Daily Iran Military (@IRIran_Military) June 16, 2025The Trump administration told several Middle Eastern allies on Sunday that it doesn't plan to get actively involved in this conflict unless Iran targets Americans, Axios is reporting, citing two sources from countries that received that U.S. message. While Iranian leaders have threatened for weeks to target U.S. bases in the region, that has yet to happen. 'The Iranians are very careful so far not to do anything that can push the U.S. to get involved,' an Arab diplomat with direct knowledge of the thinking in Tehran told Axios. SCOOP: The Trump administration told Middle Eastern allies that it doesn't plan to get actively involved in the war between Israel and Iran unless Iran targets Americans — Axios (@axios) June 16, 2025Trump took to his Truth Social network to warn Iranians to evacuate Tehran. 'Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign,' he stated on Truth Social. 'What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' Fox News reporter Lawrence Jones III stated on X that Trump will depart the G7 summit after dinner with the heads of those nations and that the National Security Council should be prepared to meet in the White House Situation Room. I've been informed that the President @POTUS will have dinner with the heads of state of the G7 nations and then immediately depart for Washington. He has requested that the National Security Council be prepared in the situation room. — Lawrence Jones III (@LawrenceBJones3) June 16, 2025 Meanwhile, a U.S. official pushed back against online chatter that the U.S. is attacking Iran. 'We are still in a defense posture,' the official told The War Zone. ' To my knowledge, we are not striking Iran.''American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture & that has nto changed,' Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated on X. 'We will protect American troops & our interests.' American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture & that has not will protect American troops & our interests. — Sean Parnell (@SeanParnellATSD) June 17, 2025 – Parnell definitively pushed back against claims that the U.S. was attacking Iran. This is not true. — Sean Parnell (@SeanParnellATSD) June 17, 2025 Contact the author: thomas@

Fox News

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The new map that could be guiding Trump's Middle East moves

Video President Donald Trump came back into office promising no new wars. So far, he's kept that promise. But he's also left much of Washington — and many of America's allies — confused by a series of rapid, unexpected moves across the Middle East. In just a few months, Trump has reopened backchannels with Iran, then turned around and threatened its regime with collapse. He's kept Israel at arm's length — skipping it on his regional tour — before signaling support once again. He lifted U.S. sanctions on Syria's Islamist leader, a figure long treated as untouchable in Washington. And he made headlines by hosting Pakistan's top general at the White House, even as India publicly objected. For those watching closely, it's been hard to pin down a clear doctrine. Critics see improvisation — sometimes even contradiction. But step back, and a pattern begins to emerge. It's not about ideology, democracy promotion, or traditional alliances. It's about access. Geography. Trade. More specifically, it may be about restarting a long-stalled infrastructure project meant to bypass China — and put the United States back at the center of a strategic economic corridor stretching from India to Europe. The project is called the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor, or IMEC. Most Americans have never heard of it. It was launched in 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi, as a joint initiative among the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the European Union. Its goal? To build a modern infrastructure link connecting South Asia to Europe — without passing through Chinese territory or relying on Chinese capital. IMEC's vision is bold but simple: Indian goods would travel west via rail and ports through the Gulf, across Israel, and on to European markets. Along the way, the corridor would connect not just trade routes, but energy pipelines, digital cables, and logistics hubs. It would be the first serious alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative — a way for the U.S. and its partners to build influence without boots on the ground. But before construction could begin, war broke out in Gaza. The October 2023 Hamas attacks and Israel's military response sent the region into crisis. Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel fell apart. The Red Sea became a warzone for shipping. And Gulf capital flows paused. The corridor — and the broader idea of using infrastructure to tie the region together — was quietly shelved. Video That's the backdrop for Trump's current moves. Taken individually, they seem scattered. Taken together, they align with the logic of clearing obstacles to infrastructure. Trump may not be drawing maps in the Situation Room. But his instincts — for leverage, dealmaking and unpredictability — are removing the very roadblocks that halted IMEC in the first place. His approach to Iran is a prime example. In April, backchannels were reopened on the nuclear front. In May, a Yemen truce was brokered — reducing attacks on Gulf shipping. In June, after Israeli strikes inside Iran, Trump escalated rhetorically, calling for Iran's "unconditional surrender." That combination of engagement and pressure may sound erratic. But it mirrors the approach that cleared a diplomatic path with North Korea: soften the edges, then apply public pressure. Meanwhile, Trump's temporary distancing from Israel is harder to miss. He skipped it on his regional tour and avoided aligning with Prime Minister Netanyahu's continued hard-line approach to Gaza. Instead, he praised Qatar — a U.S. military partner and quiet mediator in the Gaza talks — and signaled support for Gulf-led reconstruction plans. The message: if Israel refuses to engage in regional stabilization, it won't control the map. Trump also made the unexpected decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria's new leader, President Ahmad al-Sharaa — a figure with a past in Islamist groups, now leading a transitional government backed by the UAE. Critics saw the move as legitimizing extremism. But in practice, it unlocked regional financing and access to transit corridors once blocked by U.S. policy. Even the outreach to Pakistan — which angered India — fits a broader infrastructure lens. Pakistan borders Iran, influences Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and maintains ties with Gulf militaries. Welcoming Pakistan's military chief was less about loyalty, and more about leverage. In corridor politics, geography often trumps alliances. None of this means Trump has a master plan. There's no confirmed strategy memo that links these moves to IMEC. And the region remains volatile. Iran's internal stability is far from guaranteed. The Gaza conflict could reignite. Saudi and Qatari interests don't always align. But there's a growing logic underneath the diplomacy: de-escalate just enough conflict to make capital flow again — and make corridors investable. That logic may not be ideologically pure. It certainly isn't about spreading democracy. But it reflects a real shift in U.S. foreign policy. Call it infrastructure-first geopolitics — where trade routes, ports and pipelines matter more than treaties and summits. To be clear, the United States isn't the only player thinking this way. China's Belt and Road Initiative has been advancing the same model for over a decade. Turkey, Iran and Russia are also exploring new logistics and energy corridors. But what sets IMEC apart — and what makes Trump's recent moves notable — is that it offers an opening for the U.S. to compete without large-scale military deployments or decades-long aid packages. Even the outreach to Pakistan — which angered India — fits a broader infrastructure lens. Pakistan borders Iran, influences Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and maintains ties with Gulf militaries. For all his unpredictability, Trump has always had a sense for economic leverage. That may be what we're seeing here: less a doctrine than a direction. Less about grand visions, and more about unlocking chokepoints. There's no guarantee it will work. The region could turn on a dime. And the corridor could remain, as it is now, a partially built concept waiting on political will. But Trump's moves suggest he's trying to build the conditions for it to restart — not by talking about peace, but by making peace a condition for investment. In a region long shaped by wars over ideology and territory, that may be its own kind of strategy. Tanvi Ratna is a policy analyst and engineer with a decade of experience in statecraft at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and technology. She has worked on Capitol Hill, at EY, at CoinDesk and others, shaping policy across sectors from manufacturing to AI. Follow her takes on statecraft on X and Substack.