Belgium's defense minister says drones are the future of warfare, like gunpowder was in the 1300s
Belgium's defense minister said drones are "the future of warfare."
Theo Francken, speaking at a drone summit in Latvia, compared drones to gunpowder in the 1300s.
Belgium, alongside Turkey, plans to join a group of countries boosting drone production for Ukraine.
Belgium's defense minister compared the revolutionary impact of drone warfare to that of gunpowder as European officials pledged to boost drone production for Ukraine.
"I really believe that this is the future of warfare, like gunpowder was in the Hundred Years War, like an industrial revolution was in the First World War, and like nuclear capacity was in the Second World War," Theo Francken said, speaking at the Drone Summit 2025 in Riga, Latvia.
"Drone technology and drone warfare will be decisive in the Russian-Ukrainian war," he added. "And we need to jump on this train because otherwise we'll lose pretty much everything."
Earlier that day, Latvia's defense minister, Andris Sprūds, announced that Belgium and Turkey planned to join the 18-member Drone Coalition for Ukraine, formed in 2024 to pool resources and expertise to produce drones for Ukraine's armed forces.
Drones have transformed the war in Ukraine, with Ukraine using cheap uncrewed aerial vehicles, or UAVs, for surveillance and attacks, offsetting Russia's large equipment and personnel advantage.
The country has also developed sophisticated long-range strike drones for attacks deep inside Russian territory, not to mention powerful sea drones.
Russia, for its part, has developed its own sophisticated drone warfare capabilities and has used drones to attack Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
The Drone Coalition for Ukraine, formed by the UK and Latvia, invested €1.8 billion, or about $2 billion, in producing drones for Ukraine in 2024, Latvian broadcaster LVM reported.
On Wednesday, Sprūds, the Latvian defense minister, said the drone coalition was on course to provide €2 billion of further funding for Ukraine's drones in 2025.
"Our aim remains to reinforce the supply of drones to Ukraine," he said, "So Ukraine maintains the battlefield superiority but also, of course, invest in Ukraine, so it also develops its own industry."
Ukraine's government has set the target of producing 4.5 million military drones in 2025.
Speaking at the summit, Luke Pollard, the UK's Minister for the Armed Forces in the Ministry of Defence, echoed Francken's comments about the impact of drones.
"The drone coalition exists because we all understand how drones have shifted the tectonic plates of warfare," he said.
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Boston Globe
3 hours ago
- Boston Globe
‘Humanitarian rescue' of migrants, or the EU's dirty work?
Though illegal under international law, the Libyan capture of migrants on the Mediterranean Sea has become commonplace in recent years as the EU has outsourced its effort to stop refugees from crossing its borders. Of course, Europe is not alone in this effort; Australia detains undocumented migrants in Papua New Guinea and Nauru. Under the Obama administration, the American government paid the Mexican government to detain undocumented people trying to enter the United States. The Trump administration has since gone a big step further: shipping hundreds of undocumented people from US soil to a notoriously brutal mega-prison in El Salvador. Migrant prisoners sit on the floor at Sabah Detention Center. Pierre Kattar / Mohammed David /The Outlaw Ocean Project Candé's story unfolds over the first three episodes of the new season of For more than a decade, the EU has supplied the coast guard cutters, supplies for detention centers, aerial intelligence, and vehicles that the Libyans use to capture migrants crossing the Mediterranean hoping for a better life. Efficient and brutal, the at-sea capture and internment of these migrants in prisons in and around Tripoli is what European Union officials hail as part of a successful partnership with Libya in their 'humanitarian rescue' efforts across the Mediterranean. But the true intent of this joint campaign, according to many human rights advocates, legal experts, and members of the European Parliament, is less to save migrants from trafficking or drowning than to stop them from reaching European shores. A handout from on Frontex aerial drones operating on the Mediterranean to locate migrant boats for the purpose of blocking them from entering Europe. Ed Ou//The Outlaw Ocean Project Though the Libyan Coast Guard routinely opens fire on migrant rafts, has been tied by the United Nations to human trafficking and murder, and is now run by militias, it continues to draw strong EU support. Since at least 2017, the EU, led by Italy, has trained and equipped the Libyan Coast Guard to serve as a proxy maritime force, whose central purpose is to stop migrants from reaching European shores. As part of a broader investigation, a reporter for The Outlaw Ocean Project, Ed Ou, spent several weeks in 2021 aboard a Doctors Without Borders vessel, filming its attempts to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean. The work is a life-or-death race. While the humanitarian ship tries to rescue migrants and take them to safety in Europe, the far faster, bigger, and more aggressive Libyan Coast Guard ships try to get to the migrants first so they can instead arrest them and return them to prisons in Libya. The EU has long denied playing an active role in this effort, but the reporters filmed drones operated by Frontex that are used to alert the Libyans to the exact location of migrant rafts. An aid worker on a MSF ship keeps an eye on a Libyan Coast Guard vessel cutting across their bow at high speed. Ed Ou//The Outlaw Ocean Project '[Frontex] has never engaged in any direct cooperation with Libyan authorities,' the Frontex press office said in a statement responding to requests for comment on the investigation. But a mounting body of evidence collected by European journalists and nongovernmental organizations suggests that Frontex's involvement with the Libyan authorities is neither accidental nor limited. In 2020, for instance, Aside from the EU role in helping Libya capture migrants at sea, the UN as well as humanitarian and human rights groups have roundly criticized European authorities for their role in creating and subsidizing a gulag of brutal migrant prisons in Libya. The EU has provided Libya with coast guard cutters, SUVs, and buses for moving captured migrants to prison. For the EU, the challenge of how best to handle desperate migrants fleeing hardships in their native countries will only grow in coming years. Climate change is expected to displace 150 million people across the globe in the next 50 years. Rising seas, desertification, and famine promise to drive desperate people to global north countries like the US and Europe, testing the moral character and political imagination of these wealthier nations. These factors were especially palpable for Aliou Candé, who grew up on a farm near the remote village of Sintchan Demba Gaira, Guinea-Bissau, a place without basic amenities like plumbing or electricity. Candé had a reputation as a dogged worker, who avoided trouble of any kind. 'People respected him,' his brother Jacaria said. In May 2021, journalists for The Outlaw Ocean Project reported from Libya, the Mediterranean, and Guinea Bissau to piece together the story of Aliou Candé. They spoke with friends, relatives, community leaders, and other prisoners held in cell four of Al Mabani to understand the circumstances leading up to his death. Critically, Candé's uncle had contacts for Candé's family back in Guinea-Bissau, and we were able to begin to put together a portrait. But the 28-year-old would become a climate migrant. Droughts in Guinea-Bissau had become more common and longer, flooding became more unpredictable and damaging, and Candé's crops — cassava, mangoes, and cashews — were failing and his children were going hungry. Milk production from his cows was so meager that his children were allowed to drink it just once a month. The shift in climate had brought more mosquitos, and with them more disease. He believed there was only one way to improve their conditions: to go to Europe. His brothers had done it. His family encouraged him to try. In the late summer of 2019, he set out for Europe with six hundred Euros. He told his wife he was not sure how long he'd be away, but he did his best to be optimistic. 'I love you,' he told her, 'and I'll be back.' In January 2020, he arrived in Morocco, where he tried to pay for a passage on a boat to Spain, but learned that the price was three thousand Euros, much more than he had. Candé then headed to Libya, where he could book a cheaper raft to Italy. In February 2021, he and more than a hundred other migrants pushed off from the Libyan shore aboard an inflatable rubber raft. After their boat was detected by the Libyan Coast Guard, the migrants were taken back to land, loaded by armed guards into buses and trucks, and driven to Al Mabani, which is Arabic for 'the buildings.' Candé was not charged with a crime or allowed to speak to a lawyer, and he was given no indication of how long he'd be detained. In his first days there, he kept mostly to himself, submitting to the grim routines of the place. The prison was controlled by a militia that euphemistically calls itself the Public Security Agency, and its gunmen patrolled the hallways. Cells were so crowded that the detainees had to sleep in shifts. In a special room, guards hung migrants upside from ceiling beams and beat them. In an audio message recorded on a hidden cell phone, Candé made a plea to his family to send the ransom for his release. 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The drone made it to the facility unnoticed, and captured close-ups of the prison's open courtyard. The team also interviewed dozens of migrants who had been imprisoned with Candé at the same detention center. A week into the investigation, the lead reporter, Ian Urbina, was speaking with his wife from his hotel room in Tripoli when he heard a knock at the door. Upon opening it, he was confronted by a dozen armed men who stormed into the room. He was immediately forced to the ground, a gun pressed to his forehead, and a hood placed over his head. What followed was a violent assault: The journalist sustained broken ribs, facial injuries, and internal trauma after being kicked repeatedly. Other members of the team — including an editor, photographer, and filmmaker — were also detained. The group was blindfolded, separated, and interrogated for hours at a time. Under Libyan law, authorities may detain foreign nationals indefinitely without formal charges. The US State Department became involved after the journalist's wife, who had heard the commotion over the phone, raised the alarm. American officials quickly identified the detaining authority and began negotiating for the team's release. After six days in custody, the team was unexpectedly told they were free to leave. No formal charges were filed and no official explanation for their detention was provided. They were lucky. The experience — deeply frightening but mercifully short — offered a glimpse into the world of indefinite detention in Libya. With no explanation from the government, fanfare by aid groups, nor coverage by domestic or foreign media, Al Mabani officially closed on January 13, 2022. In its roughly 12-month lifespan, the prison became emblematic of the unaccountable nature of Libya's broader detention system. The quiet shuttering of Al Mabani illustrates the ever-shifting nature of incarceration in Libya and how such transience makes protection of detainees nearly impossible. In the same month that Al Mabani was closed, the team behind the reporting presented details of their investigation to the European Parliament's human rights committee, and outlined the EU's extensive support for Libya's migration control apparatus. European Commission representatives took issue with the reporters' characterization of the crisis. 'We are not funding the war against migrants,' said Rosamaria Gili, the Libya country director at the European External Action Service. 'We are trying to instill a culture of human rights.' And yet, just a week later, Henrike Trautmann, a representative of the European Commission, told lawmakers that the EU was going to provide five more vessels to the Libyan Coast Guard to bolster its ability to intercept migrants on the high seas. A small wooden boat packed with refugees waving and smiling with elation after being found by MSF aid workers. Ed Ou//The Outlaw Ocean Project 'We know the Libyan context is far from optimal for this,' Trautmann conceded. 'We think it's still preferable to continue to support this than to leave them to their own devices.' Meanwhile, the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean continues. At least two thousand migrants died in 2024 while making this perilous passage, according to the UN, and, during the same period, the Libyan Coast Guard captured an additional twenty thousand that were brought back to prisons like Al Mabani in and around Tripoli. In February of this year, Libyan authorities held a training exercise with the EU border officials. The Trump administration has also taken note: In May, The status of both of those plans remains unclear.
San Francisco Chronicle
4 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
A confidential brief urges the ICC to investigate Wagner's promotion of atrocities in West Africa
DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Editor's Note: This story contains graphic images and descriptions of atrocities. The International Criminal Court has been asked to review a confidential legal report arguing that the Russia-linked Wagner Group has committed war crimes by spreading images of apparent atrocities in West Africa on social media, including ones alluding to cannibalism, according to the brief seen exclusively by The Associated Press. In the videos, men in military uniform are shown butchering corpses of what appear to be civilians with machetes, hacking out organs and posing with severed limbs. One fighter says he is about to eat someone's liver. Another says he is trying to remove their heart. Violence in the Sahel, an arid belt of land south of the Sahara Desert, has reached record levels as military governments battle extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Turning from Western allies like the United States and France, the governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have instead embraced Russia and its mercenary fighters as partners in offensives. Observers say the new approach has led to the kind of atrocities and dehumanization not seen in the region for decades. Social media offers a window into the alleged horrors that often occur in remote areas with little or no oversight from governments or outside observers. Experts say the images, while difficult to verify, could serve as evidence of war crimes. The confidential brief to the ICC goes further, arguing that the act of circulating the images on social media could constitute a war crime, too. It is the first such argument made to the international court. 'Wagner has deftly leveraged information and communications technologies to cultivate and promote its global brand as ruthless mercenaries. Their Telegram network in particular, which depicts their conduct across the Sahel, serves as a proud public display of their brutality,' said Lindsay Freeman, director of the Technology, Law & Policy program at the Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law. Under the Rome Statute that created the ICC, the violation of personal dignity, mainly through humiliating and degrading treatment, constitutes a war crime. Legal experts from UC Berkeley, who submitted the brief to the ICC last year, argue that such treatment could include Wagner's alleged weaponization of social media. 'The online distribution of these images could constitute the war crime of outrages on personal dignity and the crime against humanity of other inhumane acts for psychologically terrorizing the civilian population,' Freeman said. She said there is legal precedent in some European courts for charging the war crime of outrages on personal dignity based predominantly on social media evidence. The brief was submitted to the ICC before the U.S. sanctioned the court earlier this year. It asks the court to investigate individuals with Wagner and the governments of Mali and Russia for alleged abuses in northern and central Mali between December 2021 and July 2024, including extrajudicial killings, torture, mutilation and cannibalism. It also asks the court to investigate crimes 'committed through the internet, which are inextricably linked to the physical crimes and add a new dimension of harm to an extended group of victims.' The Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC said their investigations have focused on alleged war crimes committed since January 2012, when insurgents seized communities in Mali's northern regions of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu. The ICC told the AP it could not comment on the brief but said it was aware of "various reports of alleged massive human rights violations in other parts of Mali,' adding that it 'follows closely the situation.' World's deadliest region for terrorism, think tank says As the world largely focuses on wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan, the Sahel has become the deadliest place on earth for extremism. Half of the world's nearly 8,000 victims of terrorism were killed across the territory last year, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, which compiles yearly data. While the U.S. and other Western powers withdraw from the region, Russia has taken advantage, expanding military cooperation with several African nations via Wagner, the private security company. The network of mercenaries and businesses is closely linked to Russia's intelligence and military, and the U.S. State Department has described it as 'a transnational criminal organization.' Since Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash in 2023, Moscow has been developing a new organization, the Africa Corps, as a rival force under direct command of Russian authorities. Earlier this month, Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali, declaring 'mission accomplished' in a Telegram post. In a separate Telegram post, Africa Corps said it is staying. In Mali, about 2,000 Russian mercenaries are fighting alongside the country's armed forces, according to U.S. officials. It is unclear how many have been with Wagner or are with the Africa Corps. Both the Russian mercenaries and local military allies have shared bloody imagery on social media to claim battlefield wins, observers say. 'The mutilation of civilians and combatants by all sides is disturbing enough,' said Corinne Dufka, a Sahel expert and the former head of Human Rights Watch in the region. "But the dissemination of these scenes on social media further elevates the depravity and suggests a growing and worrying level of dehumanization is taking root in the Sahel.' The confidential brief, along with AP reporting, shows that a network of social media channels, likely administrated by current or former Wagner members, has reposted content that the channels say are from Wagner fighters, promoting videos and photos appearing to show abuses by armed, uniformed men, often accompanied by mocking or dehumanizing language. While administrators of the channels are anonymous, open source analysts believe they are current or former Wagner fighters based on the content as well as graphics used, including in some cases Wagner's logo. AP analysis of the videos confirms the body parts shown are genuine, as well as the military uniforms. The videos and photos, in a mix of French and local languages, aim to humiliate and threaten those considered the enemies of Wagner and its local military allies, along with civilian populations whose youth face pressure to join extremist groups. But experts say it often has the opposite effect, prompting reprisal attacks and recruitment into the ranks of jihadis. If the videos aim to deter and terrorize, it's working, some in Mali say. The ones appearing to show atrocities committed by Malian soldiers 'caused a psychological shock in the Fulani community,' a representative of the nomadic community's civil society told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. The Fulani are often caught in the middle of the fight against extremism, the focus of violence from both government forces and extremists, and of jihadi recruitment. Thousands of Fulani have fled to neighboring countries in fear of being victimized, the representative said, and asserted that at least 1,000 others disappeared last year after encountering Mali's army or allied militias, including Wagner. Condemnation and investigations In July last year, a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel reposted three videos of what appeared to be Mali's armed forces and the Dozo hunters, a local defense group often fighting alongside them, committing apparent abuses that allude to cannibalism. One video shows a man in the uniform of Mali's armed forces cooking what he says are body parts. Another shows a man dressed as a Dozo hunter cutting into a human body, saying he is about to eat the liver. In a third video, a group of Dozo fighters roasts what appears to be a human torso. One man carves off a hunk of flesh and tosses it to another. Mali's army ordered an investigation into the viral videos, which were removed from X for violating the platform's rules and put behind a paywall on Telegram. The army chief described it as 'rare atrocity' which was not aligned with the nation's military values, and 'competent services' would confirm and identify the perpetrators. It was not clear whether anyone was identified. A video apparently from Burkina Faso, shared on X the same month, showed an armed man in military pants and sleeveless shirt dancing, holding a severed hand and foot, at one point grinning as the foot dangled from his teeth. In another, a man in Burkinabe military uniform cuts through what appears to be a human body. He says: 'Good meat indeed. We are Cobra 2.' Another man is heard saying: 'This is BIR 15. BIR 15 always does well its job, by all means. Fatherland or death, we shall win.' BIR 15 Cobra 2 is the name of a special intervention unit created by Burkina Faso's ruler, Ibrahim Traore, to combat extremists. 'Fatherland or death' is the motto of pro-government forces. The videos were removed from X and put behind a paywall on Telegram. Burkina Faso's army condemned the videos' 'macabre acts' and described them as 'unbearable images of rare cruelty.' The army said it was working to identify those responsible, adding that it 'distances itself from these inhumane practices.' It was not clear whether anyone has been identified. Other posts shared by alleged Wagner-affiliated channels include images of what appear to be mutilated corpses and beheaded, castrated and dismembered bodies of people, including ones described as extremist fighters, often accompanied with mocking commentary. One post shows two white men in military attire with what appears to be a human roasting on a spit, with the caption: 'The meat you hunt always tastes better,' along with an emoji of a Russian flag. It is hard to know at what scale cannibalism might occur in the context of warfare in the Sahel, and actual cases are 'likely rare,' said Danny Hoffman, chair in international studies at the University of Washington. But "the real force of these stories comes from the fascination and fear they create,' Hoffman said of the videos, with the digital age making rumors of violence even more widespread and effective. 'Whether it is Wagner or local fighters or political leaders, being associated with cannibalism or ritual killings or mutilations is being associated with an extreme form of power," he said. Some of the graphic posts have been removed. Other content was moved behind a paywall. Telegram told the AP in a statement: 'Content that encourages violence is explicitly forbidden by Telegram's terms of service and is removed whenever discovered. Moderators empowered with custom AI and machine learning tools proactively monitor public parts of the platform and accept reports in order to remove millions of pieces of harmful content each day.' It did not say whether it acts on material behind a paywall. 'White Uncles in Africa' The Telegram channel White Uncles in Africa has emerged as the leading source of graphic imagery and dehumanizing language from the Sahel, reposting all the Mali videos. UC Berkeley experts and open source analysts believe it is administered by current or former Wagner members, but they have not been able to identify them. While the channel re-posts images from subscribers, it also posts original content. In May of this year, the channel posted a photo of eight bodies of what appeared to be civilians, face-down on the ground with hands bound, with the caption: 'The white uncles found and neutralized a breeding ground for a hostile life form.' It also shared an image of a person appearing to be tortured, with the caption describing him as a 'hostile life form' being taken 'for research.' Human Rights Watch has documented atrocities committed in Mali by Wagner and other armed groups. It says accountability for alleged abuses has been minimal, with the military government reluctant to investigate its armed forces and Russian mercenaries. It has become difficult to obtain detailed information on alleged abuses because of the Malian government's 'relentless assault against the political opposition, civil society groups, the media and peaceful dissent,' said Ilaria Allegrozzi, the group's Sahel researcher. That has worsened after a U.N. peacekeeping mission withdrew from Mali in December 2023 at the government's request.
Boston Globe
8 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Europe frets about US retreating from region ahead of NATO
With some 80,000 US troops in Europe, governments in the region have factored in at least a reversal of the military surge under former president Joe Biden of about 20,000 troops. The stakes got significantly higher overnight after the U.S. struck nuclear sites in Iran with the risk that Trump will get sucked into a spiraling conflict in the Middle East after being a vocal critic of US military involvement overseas. His foreign policy U-turn will be a topic that will be hard to avoid at the gathering, especially with NATO ally Turkey present and a key stakeholder in the region. Europeans have been kept in the dark about the Trump administration's plans. But officials in the region are bracing potentially for a far bigger withdrawal that could present a dangerous security risk, according to officials familiar with the discussions who declined to be identified as closed-door talks take place before the review. Advertisement Up until early June, no official from the United States had come to NATO to talk about the US force posture review, spurring concern among allies that this could be done at very short notice, according to a person familiar with the matter. Advertisement It's unclear whether European nations have started planning to fill any potential gaps left by US forces. Withdrawing the aforementioned 20,000 troops could also have an even greater impact if other NATO allies follow the US lead and remove their troops from the east. The worry with even deeper cuts impacting US bases in Germany and Italy is they could encourage Russia to test NATO's Article 5 of collective defense with hybrid attacks across the alliance, the person familiar also said. Since returning to the White House, Trump and his allies have warned European capitals that – despite the mounting threat from Russia – they need to take charge of their security as the United States turns its military and diplomatic focus to the Indo-Pacific region. Contacted by Bloomberg, NATO declined to respond to questions but referred to a statement by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in early June. When asked about a US drawdown from Europe, he said it was normal they would pivot to Asia. 'I'm not worried about that, but I'm absolutely convinced we will do that in a step-by-step approach,' Rutte said then. 'There will be no capability gaps in Europe because of this.' The White House referred questions to the Pentagon. 'The U.S. constantly evaluates force posture to ensure it aligns with America's strategic interests,' a defense official responded. The geopolitical shift is likely to have enormous consequences for the 32-member alliance, which is weathering its greatest challenge since it became the bulwark against Soviet power in the decades after World War II. European militaries, long reliant on American hard power, will have to fill the gap as Washington scales back. Advertisement If a troop reduction focuses on efficiency, it would be far less problematic for Europeans than one that hits critical assets and personnel that Europe couldn't replace immediately, according to one European diplomat. The nature of a withdrawal would be more important than the troop numbers, the person said. A dramatic pullout announcement is likely to trigger an instant reaction from eastern member states, with those closer to Russia immediately requesting deployments from Western European allies. The holistic review of the US military, which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says should focus on threats facing the U.S., is meant to reflect the tilt in the global power dynamic, bringing potentially large-scale redeployment of weapons and troops. But European diplomats have bristled at the timing of the review, taking place only after NATO signs off on its most ambitious new weapons targets since the Cold War — with member states agreeing to foot the bill. A withdrawal that is more dramatic than anticipated will mean that, after acceding to Trump's ramp-up in defense spending, they still may be left with a heavy burden to respond to a rapidly growing Russian military. 'We would be remiss in not reviewing force posture everywhere, but it would be the wrong planning assumption to say, 'America is abandoning'' or leaving Europe, Hegseth said in Stuttgart in February. 'No, America is smart to observe, plan, prioritize and project power to deter conflict.' After the Trump administration balked at providing a backstop to European security guarantees to Ukraine, a pullout of more US troops could embolden Russia's Vladimir Putin, according to people familiar with the matter. Advertisement 'The question is when pressure is on for a greater focus on the Indo-Pacific, what capabilities do they need to think about moving,' said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, a defense think tank. 'I don't get an impression that they have yet decided what that means for force levels in specific terms.' Germany, Europe's richest and most populous nation, is positioning itself to take on the largest share of the redistribution. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is taking the lead in building out the military after the country scrapped constitutional debt restrictions when it comes to security. Berlin will do the 'heavy lifting,' he's said. Pistorius recently unveiled a new battle tank brigade in Lithuania and has said the country is committed to boosting its armed forces by as many as 60,000 soldiers. The military currently has about 182,000 active-duty troops. European governments are pushing Washington to communicate its plans clearly and space out any troop draw-downs to give them time to step up with their own forces. 'There are some capabilities, like deep precision strikes, where we Europeans need some time to catch up,' said Stefan Schulz, a senior official in the German Defense Ministry. He called for any US reduction to be done in an orderly fashion, 'so that this process of US reduction is matched with the uplift of European capabilities.' The ideal scenario would be an orderly shift within NATO toward a stronger Europe that would take about a decade, said Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary general. A more dire scenario would involve a US administration acting out of frustration with European progress and drastically reducing troop presence. Grand said a 'plausible' scenario would be a cut to about 65,000 US troops, matching a low-point figure before Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 — a level that NATO could manage. Advertisement 'But if we go below that, we are entering uncharted waters, a different world,' Grand said.
