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Middle East countries call for urgent de-escalation after Israel's strikes on Iran

Middle East countries call for urgent de-escalation after Israel's strikes on Iran

Yahoo6 days ago

Nations across the Middle East have condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran, calling for urgent de-escalation amid concerns that tit-for-tat retaliation could lead to a wider war with regional fallout.
Israel carried out hundreds of strikes across Iran, killing top military and nuclear officials and targeting nuclear facilities – the most serious Israeli attack on Iran ever. Iran responded by launching at least 100 drones and ballistic missiles in Israel's direction, most of which were shot down, according to the Israeli military. Iran has vowed revenge, with the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatening 'severe punishment'.
The foreign ministries of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries all denounced the Israeli strikes and urged a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Lebanon and Jordan issued similar statements.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the Israeli attacks against Iran 'constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms'.
Related: What has Israel hit in Iran and who were the generals and nuclear scientists killed?
'While the Kingdom condemns these heinous attacks, it affirms that the international community and the Security Council bear a great responsibility to immediately halt this aggression,' a statement from the Saudi foreign ministry said. The Saudi foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan, later called his Iranian counterpart, urging a 'rejection of the use of force'.
Though many states in the Middle East, particularly in the Arab Gulf, are historically hostile to Iran and its influence in the region, a fully fledged war between Israel and Iran is not in their interest.
Escalation threatened regional fallout, with intercepted Iranian missiles falling in the countryside of southern Syria, schools closing in south Lebanon and Jordanian jets shooting down drones and missiles.
In the past, Iran and its proxies' targets have included oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and US military personnel in the Middle East. The US has military bases across the region, including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE. Iran's ability to disrupt the oil trade, with its control over the strategic strait of Hormuz, could threaten the economic interests of the Gulf states.
Iran backs a network of militias across the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen, the popular mobilisation forces in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could all also be involved in an Iranian war with Israel.
The militias are a core part of Iran's defence doctrine, a concept it refers to as strategic depth, which relies on its allies and proxies to create layers of defence and deterrence throughout the Middle East. Under the doctrine, an Israeli attack could be met with a missile from neighbouring Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq.
Iran's allies, however, have been severely weakened by almost two years of fighting with Israel. Hezbollah, Iran's most important regional proxy, had most of its senior leadership killed in Israeli strikes last autumn and its weapons caches have been confiscated by the Lebanese state.
The Iran-backed militias gave no indication on Friday that they would get involved in the Iran-Israel conflict, issuing relatively measured statements in the aftermath of the strikes.
Hezbollah condemned the attacks but said the group would not initiate a strike on Israel, while the Houthis said that they 'support Iran's right to defend itself'. Hezbollah and other members of the Iranian axis have been severely battered over the past year of fighting with Israel, as well as by the fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The lukewarm response by Iran's allied militias was a strong contrast to its first attack on Israel in April 2024, when drones and missiles were launched from Lebanon, Iraq and Syria alongside its own.
• This article was amended on 14 June 2025. An earlier version incorrectly stated that Bahrain did not join the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in denouncing the Israeli strikes and urging a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

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Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall
Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall

Yahoo

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  • Yahoo

Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall

As the Iranian regime reels from sustained Israeli strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, debate is intensifying over what could come next. Experts say the end of the Islamic Republic is no longer unthinkable — but warn that what replaces it could either lift the country toward a freer future or plunge it into instability. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, posted yesterday, "Sources inside Iran say that the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun." "The first thing is revolution is too broad a word," said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "The better words are evolution and devolution, meaning if you get something better or something worse. Because this is the Middle East, and fundamentally, things can get worse, not better, when you introduce an exogenous shock." Trump To Make Iran Decision 'Within The Next Two Weeks' Given 'Chance' Of Negotiations, Leavitt Says Taleblu cautioned that both the Iranian opposition and Western governments have failed to prepare for regime collapse because of a long-standing reluctance to engage with the idea of regime change. "By not being able to articulate the necessary political strategy... we are most unprepared," he said. Read On The Fox News App Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, sees four scenarios emerging from the current moment — one of which, he warns, is far worse than the others. "The Iranian people are currently leaderless, low-energy, and disillusioned since the women's protests," Sveti told Fox News Digital. "One scenario is collapse from within, similar to the Soviet Union. A brigade commander inside the Revolutionary Guards, supported by a circle of loyalists, could decide to rebel from within the regime." Sabti said that after Israel eliminated many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals, Iran's regular army may now be better positioned to rise. "It might even align with disillusioned elements of the revolutionary guards," he said. "Because they know the system and its bureaucracy, insiders could quietly organize something from within. There would be casualties, but it could unfold as a relatively quiet historical event." Taleblu supports the idea that a regime transition could emerge from within, but notes that Iran has spent decades "coup-proofing." "It has promoted more based on zeal than capability. So it's less likely that you could have a classic military coup d'état emerge," he said. "That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it would take a significant amount of politicking and maneuvering." Israel's 'Resounding' Military Campaign Against Iran Could Be Historic Turning Point, Experts Say The second scenario Sabti outlined is a popular uprising sparked by the release of political prisoners. "There are many political leaders in Iranian prisons," he said. "If some are freed, they could rally the public. They were once part of the regime but tried to shift course and now support relations with the U.S. It would still be a very cold peace with Israel—but not hostile." Taleblu noted that Iranian society has already undergone a significant shift over the past decade. "Large swaths of the Iranian population—80% is probably a minimum number—hate this regime," he said. "The protests since 2017, especially 'Women, Life, Freedom,' were triggered not just by politics, but by economic, social, even environmental issues." A third possibility, Sabti said, is the return of exiled leaders. "There's deep romantic nostalgia toward the monarchy," he said. "Maybe in a later phase, if infighting breaks out, people might rally around a symbolic figure—'Come back and be a symbol.' That could strengthen the revolution." Taleblu acknowledged that figures like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi could play a role, but not as rulers. "Think of the diaspora as a bridgehead into a new Iran—not the definers of the new Iran," he said. "The people inside Iran should be the ones shaping the next Iran." The fourth — and worst — scenario, according to Sabti, is that the regime survives. "That's the worst option," he said bluntly. Everything You Need To Know About Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader Of Iran Taleblu agreed, warning that survival would bring an even more repressive future. "If the Islamic Republic survives, it will survive in a more radical fashion—more military, less clergy," he said. "There's debate: does it become like Turkey or Pakistan, or does it become even more messianic? The older IRGC are corrupt; the younger ones are messianic." One of the most contentious questions looming over all these scenarios is the future role of Iran's non-Persian communities, including the Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds. Aref Al-Kaabi, executive president of the State of Ahwaz, told Fox News Digital in a written statement that without trust-building between these communities and the Persian opposition, change will remain elusive. "In my opinion, regime change in Iran is possible if the following conditions are met: continued Israeli strikes... support for non-Persian components... international will... and bridges of trust between Arabs, Kurds, Baloch, Azeris, and the Persian opposition," Al-Kaabi said. "If these conditions are met, I believe the regime's fall will only be a matter of days." He said that in recent days, the IRGC launched widespread arrests in Ahwaz to prevent mobilization. "Most of those arrested are Arabs from Abadan, Bushehr, Sheyban, and Shoaibiya," he said. Al-Kaabi also criticized the Persian opposition abroad. "They view us—Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch—as separatists and refuse to work with us. That stubbornness is one of the main reasons the regime is still in power." Taleblu warned against Western attempts to divide the country. "The way to unite the Iranian population is not to talk about balkanization," he said. "That would be an own goal of moral and strategic proportions."Original article source: Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall

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