Canada's Hanging Chads
MONTREAL, CANADA - JANUARY 23: A janitor picks up Liberal Party "thunder sticks" at outgoing Prime ... More Minister Paul Martin's riding headquarters after his government was defeated by Stephen Harper's opposition Conservatives on Monday, January 23, 2006. Martin will stay on as an MP but will step down as leader of the Liberal Party. (Photo by)
Over a month after Canada's federal elections, the country is still trying to sort out exactly who won and by how much. If this sounds eerily familiar to Bush vs. Gore in 2000, there is a good reason for this. Much like a quarter century ago in the United States, the recent Canadian election, basically a series of over 330 separate elections in each legislative 'riding' (equivalent to an American legislative district), has produced numerous results that were so close to call that a number have already been overturned in recounts and others simply remain unsettled. The situation is so fluid that Canada's Governor General, Mary Simon, has had to state that no official transfer of power shall occur until after the recounts are completed.
Canada uses a parliamentary system, so that whichever party has gained a majority of seats in the House of Commons has, therefore, the right to name a Prime Minister and form a new national government. Unfortunately, no party won a majority in April, with the Liberals coming very close. That meant that they had to negotiate with smaller parties to form a government, but each small party had to be wary of not overplaying its hand as it could easily be replaced. The recounts, however, have now shrunken the Liberal total, resulting in that party needing more seats from any coalition partner to form a government. There have been no 'butterfly ballots' or 'hanging chads,' which famously affected the 2000 American elections, but there have been elections so close in Canada that in one case in Quebec a single vote seems to have determined the winner. (Source). The impact of the shrinking Liberal total is to mostly freeze out the smallest of the coalition parties, such as the Greens with their one seat in Parliament, but to energize others, such as the New Democratic Party, to drive a harder bargain with the Liberals in order to work together.
All of this puts the Liberal presumptive Prime Minister Mark Carney in a bind. Canada has become very regionalized, with the Liberals winning mostly in Ontario, the largest province, and the Conservatives sweeping much of the West, especially in oil rich Alberta and Saskatchewan, the wheat basket of Canada. Canada has a system of 'equalization payments', in which richer provinces pay to subsidize poorer ones, and that flow has gone mostly West to East. (Source). But the East, featuring liberal Ontario and Francophone Quebec, has taken a strong stand against fossil fuels, which generates so much of Canada's economic growth, and which allows those equalization payments to be paid largely from the West to the East in the first place. (Source). In fact, things have now gotten so tense that it is even conceivable Canada may split, with the four Western provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba attempting to separate from the rest of the nation. (Source).
Prime Minister Carney, who was born in Saskatchewan but has spent much of his life abroad, now is seen as being a driver of the Liberal ideal of net zero and no further fossil fuel infrastructure development. Already he has had to establish a crisis working group to try to head off western separation.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty about finally forming a government is causing a drag on foreign investment into Canada, as nobody really knows what the status of the country will be in one or two years. It also is raising immense constitutional issues, as much of western Canadian land is subject to treaties between the federal government and indigenous tribes known in Canada as 'First Nations.' The First Nation people already are making noises about what would or should happen in the event any provinces really do try to separate from the rest of the country. (Source).
In the end, the bad feelings engendered by the energy arguments occurring elsewhere around the world are now being magnified tenfold in Canada. The continuing presence of these unresolved issues have already brought famine to nations like Sri Lanka, rural strife to France, and massive price shocks to many countries in Europe and to California. It is Canada, however, that truly bears the brunt of these arguments now. Energy, which historically has been seen as a way to stitch the nation together, now is driving it apart. The entire future of the nation may depend on the still ongoing recounts and how they affect the ability of whatever government finally develops to mesh the interests of the disparate geographic parts of the second largest nation on earth by land mass.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
America headed for 'economic heart attack' on government debt, spending warns billionaire
Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is sounding the alarm on America's chronic spending, national debt nearing $37 trillion, combined with a $2 trillion deficit that may balloon with President Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill.' "We're spending 40% more than we're taking in and this is a chronic problem. So what you're seeing is the debt service payments beginning to squeeze away, not beginning, well into squeezing away. So it's like plaque in the arteries squeezing away buying power. And as you can do the numbers you will see that you can have an economic heart attack as a result of that That we're going to very soon get to the position that you need debt to pay the debt," said Dalio on FOX Business Network's 'The Claman Countdown.' Nearly One-third Of $36T National Debt Needs Refinancing As Trump Demands Rate Cuts Dalio also outlined a pathway to ease the economic credit crunch. "We are at a juncture right now that, if we can, soon, very soon, while the economy is still good, cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, which is possible. You only have to change a couple of things, change spending by four percent, change tax income by four percent, then you'll have a lower interest rate as a result. This is possible. It was done between 1991 and 1998, that balance, if everybody gives a little bit, there's a possibility of being able to get it down to 3%. If you don't do that, and we probably won't do that, It is like the plaque building in the heart. And so we are now then going to have not only more debt and more debt service encroaching on our spending, But it's also going to mean that we're going to have a supply-demand problem," he said. The Congressional Budget Office estimates Trump's tax bill could lift the deficit to $2.77 trillion. The White House has pushed back on the CBO's scoring and estimates, saying it doesn't factor in revenues, including what tariffs are bringing in. Former Trump economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, now host of FOX Business Network's 'Kudlow,' has also pointed out the CBO has a history of missing the mark and "under-reported" the first go-round of Trump's 2017 tax cuts by $2.3 trillion over the past seven years. Read On The Fox Business App The bill continues to make its way through Congress and is expected to be on the President's desk by July article source: America headed for 'economic heart attack' on government debt, spending warns billionaire Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
With no embassy in Tehran, Canada reacts to turmoil in Iran from afar
Neither Israel nor Iran is backing down from an escalating conflict that has endangered civilians in both countries, and because Canada has no embassy in Iran, Ottawa is having to work from afar to support thousands of Canadian citizens stuck there. While Canada has an embassy in Israel, it severed diplomatic relations with Tehran more than a decade ago. Though having an embassy presence would provide Canada with certain advantages, analysts and observers say there are limits in what can be done on the ground with so much chaos unfolding. WATCH | Urgent talks at a tense time: That said, Bruce Mabley, a retired diplomat whose postings included stints in the Middle East, says having a diplomatic presence at least allows both countries to potentially talk to one another. "It's stupid not to be there," he said. A long way to the border Global Affairs Canada did not respond to questions from CBC News about how the lack of an embassy presence was impacting Ottawa's efforts to support Canadians inside Iran. But even if Canada did have an embassy in Tehran right now, that wouldn't change the fact that flights aren't leaving the capital. Both Iran and Israel had closed their airspaces while launching numerous attacks over the last week, though Iran recently allowed an Indian flight to leave from another part of the country, and several more were reportedly expected to follow. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has publicly urged Canadians fleeing both Israel and Iran to head to Jordan, Armenia and Turkey. But the journey to neighbouring nations of Turkey or Armenia is a long one for anyone living in the Iranian capital, which is hundreds of kilometres from either of those destinations. "The border is really far away," said University of Toronto history professor Mohamad Tavakoli-Targhi, who was born in Tehran and has family still in Iran. He says the roads out of the Iranian capital have been jammed with people trying to flee, making that route out more difficult. A tense journey One of his students, Hanieh Bakhtiari, recently travelled back to Iran to visit her parents, and the fighting started days after she arrived. Bakhtiari and her partner fled the country on a bus, in a tense, 11-hour journey to Turkey, during which she says she was "constantly watching" the skies for potential attacks. "We were … very much scared of being attacked while we were on the road," said Bakhtiari, who spoke to CBC's As It Happens about her journey out of Iran. Israel began a wave of attacks on June 13, targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites with airstrikes that have killed high-ranking Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists in Iran says that as of Thursday, at least 657 people have been killed in the Israeli attacks, and of those, at least 263 were civilians. Iran has launched retaliatory strikes, which the Israeli military estimates have involved at least 450 missiles and 1,000 drones. At least two dozen people in Israel have been killed. The Israeli push against Iran may draw U.S. involvement, though U.S. President Donald Trump has delayed making a decision. WATCH | From 2013, a look at the top-secret closure of Canada's Embassy in Iran: The costs of cutting ties Opinions are split among observers on whether it would be better for Canada to have an embassy in Tehran. "Having an embassy in Tehran would not be a panacea," said Peter G. Bates, a retired Canadian diplomat who was twice posted to Tehran and helped close the Canadian embassy there in 2012. Phil Gurski, a former Iran intelligence analyst for Canadian spy agencies, finds himself "on both sides" of the debate. On one hand, he says there's a point where a line is crossed that cannot be tolerated, but when an embassy gets shut down and ties are cut, "you're essentially flying blind." Gurski says there are other ways for the government to monitor events in Iran — including reviewing information from satellites, the use of signals intelligence, or conferring with friendly embassies about what's unfolding on the ground. Gurski, Mabley and Bates all note that when an embassy is closed, a government will typically ask an ally with an embassy presence in that same region to provide support in its absence. However, any friendly embassy doing favours for Canada will expectedly prioritize the needs of its own citizens first. And as things escalate between Israel and Iran, any such ally may also be getting similar requests from other nations that don't have a diplomatic presence in Tehran. U of T's Tavakoli-Targhi sees a clear benefit that an embassy provides, beyond giving diplomatic staff better access to citizens abroad. He says embassies can serve as a source of hope for people who are "in a moment of despair," like many Canadians living in Tehran at the moment.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Federal Transport Minister Freeland slams B.C. Ferries deal with Chinese company
B.C. Ferries has drawn the ire of federal Transportation Minister Chrystia Freeland for its decision to contract a Chinese state-owned shipyard to build four new vessels for its passenger fleet. Freeland also expressed concerns about security risks related to the contract. In a letter to B.C.'s Transportation Minister Mike Farnworth released Friday afternoon, Freeland expressed her "great consternation and disappointment" with the ferry operator. "I am dismayed that B.C. Ferries would select a Chinese state-owned shipyard to build new ferries in the current geopolitical context," Freeland wrote. Earlier this month, B.C. Ferries said the winning bidder on the contract is China Merchants Industry Weihai Shipyards. No Canadian companies bid on the ships, according to B.C. Ferries. But Freeland said, given the value of the contract and the amount of taxpayer money provided to B.C. Ferries' operations, she would have expected Canadian companies to be involved in the bid process. "I am surprised that B.C. Ferries does not appear to have been mandated to require an appropriate level of Canadian content in the procurement or the involvement of the Canadian marine industry," she wrote. Freeland said China has imposed "unjustified tariffs" on Canadian goods, including 100 per cent tariffs on canola oil, meal and pea imports and a 25 per cent duty on Canadian aquatic products and pork. She asked her provincial counterpart to share what it will do to address potential threats to security, including cybersecurity, and determine how B.C. Ferries will lessen "the risks that vessel maintenance and spare parts may pose." "I would like your assurance that B.C. Ferries conducted a robust risk assessment, and I expect them to engage with the relevant provincial and federal security agencies and departments to mitigate any security risk." WATCH | Farnworth worries about B.C. Ferries contract: Freeland said the federal government has a long record of providing financial support to B.C. Ferries, including a federal subsidy of $37.8 million in 2025-26 dating back to a 1977 agreement. The letter went on to say the Canada Infrastructure Bank is providing the ferry operator with a $75-million loan to finance the purchase of four zero-emission ferries and install charging infrastructure Freeland asked Farnworth to confirm "with utmost certainty" that no federal funding would be used to acquire the new ferries. In an emailed statement late Friday, Farnworth said he has spoken to Freeland about the need to bolster the province's shipbuilding sector. "B.C. has the skilled labour — a partnership with the federal government, provincial governments, and industry is essential for Canadian shipyards to expand physical capacity to build commercial vessels on both coasts," he said. The B.C. Ministry of Transportation said it is reviewing Freeland's letter. Jeff Groot, executive director of communications with B.C. Ferries, said Weihai Shipyards was selected following a rigorous and transparent procurement process. "It was the strongest bid by a significant margin," he said in an emailed statement. Groot said Canadian companies have acquired around 100 vessels built at Chinese shipyards over the last decade. "Globally, only a few shipyards have the capacity to deliver complex passenger ferries on the timelines and budgets required." Groot said B.C. Ferries has been working with Transport Canada since before the contract was signed, and with Public Safety Canada on safety and security issues. "Also, sensitive systems will be sourced separately and independently certified before the vessels enter service. B.C. Ferries intends that all of our IT networks will be procured from within Canada and installed on the ship by B.C. Ferries' own personnel," Groot said. He added a full-time B.C. Ferries oversight team will be on site at the shipyard.
