People on New State Pension on track for monthly payments of £971 from next April
The annual uprating will be announced at the Autumn Budget but pensioners can start calculating the Triple Lock uplift now.
Income tax rises for Scots in April - how the changes affect you
Nearly 13 million State Pensioners across Great Britain, including over one million living in Scotland, should start to keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate as it forms part of the Triple Lock measure which determines the annual uprating for the contributory benefit.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show UK inflation decreased to 3.4 per cent in May, down from 3.5 per cent in April. Annual growth in employees' average wages for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 5.6 per cent and total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.5 per cent.
Under the Triple Lock measure, State Pensions increase each year in-line with whichever is the highest of average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September or 2.5 per cent.
The New and Basic State Pension increased by 4.7 per cent in April, which means someone on the full New State Pension currently receives £230.25 per week, or £921 every four-week pay period.
Those on the full Basic State Pension receive £176.45 each week, or £705.80 every four-week pay period.
State Pension uprating predictions for 2026/27
The Triple Lock is currently on track to be determined by the earnings growth element which is currently at 5.5 per cent. However, this figure may go up or down and isn't the final metric that will determine the level of uprating.
The next CPI figure will be published by the ONS on July 17.
That being said, a 5.5 per cent increase on the current State Pension would see people receive the following amounts.
Full New State Pension
Weekly: £242.90
Four-weekly pay period: £971.60
Annual amount: £12,630.80
Full Basic State Pension
Weekly: £186.25
Four-weekly pay period: £744.60
Annual amount: £9,679.80
The annual uprating won't be confirmed until the Autumn Budget, but pensioners - and those due to retire next year - can start to plan their finances by following the Triple Lock measurements. The September CPI figure will be published in mid-October, but the wages growth figure is usually published in August.
State Pension and tax
The Labour Government confirmed earlier this year that the Personal Allowance will remain frozen at £12,570 until April 2028.
If the New and Basic State Pension increased by the lower measure of the Triple Lock (2.5%), it would see the full New State Pension exceed the income tax threshold by nearly £79 in the 2027/28 financial year (£12,578.80).
While the amount of State Pension to be taxed may seem relatively small - tax is only paid on the amount over the Personal Allowance - older people with other income streams could find themselves having to part with more cash to pay a tax bill - if it's not automatically deducted from private or workplace pensions through PAYE.
And remember, that figure is based on the lower measure of the Triple Lock. Using the current projections, more pensioners could be dragged into the retirement tax net sooner, especially if they have additional income through a private or workplace pension.
What is taxed
Guidance on GOV.UK states: 'You pay tax if your total annual income adds up to more than your Personal Allowance. Find out about your Personal Allowance and Income Tax rates.
Your total income could include:
the State Pension you get - Basic or New State Pension
Additional State Pension
a private pension (workplace or personal) - you can take some of this tax-free
earnings from employment or self-employment
any taxable benefits you get
any other income, such as money from investments, property or savings
Check if you have to pay tax on your pension
Before you can check, you will need to know:
if you have a State Pension or a private pension
how much State Pension and private pension income you will get this tax year (April 6 to April 5)
the amount of any other taxable income you'll get this tax year (for example, from employment or state benefits)
You cannot use this tool if you get:
any foreign income
Marriage Allowance
Blind Person's Allowance
Use this online tool at GOV.UK to check if you have to pay tax on your pension.
The full guide to tax when you get a pension can be found on GOV.UK here.
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