‘There's a lot Iran can do to make the U.S. pay': Thompson on possible retaliation
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Former NATO Task Force Commander Maj.-Gen. (Ret'd) Denis Thompson gives his insight after U.S. airstrikes hit three Iranian nuclear sites.
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Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Tarnished by Oct. 7, Netanyahu's legacy may be reshaped by war with Iran
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed a shellshocked shadow of himself. He looked diminished and downtrodden by the surprise assault that created a national emergency and caused his public support to plummet. Now, as Israel faces another unprecedented crisis in a war with Iran, Netanyahu appears rejuvenated. With the U.S. lending its support against a threat he has devoted his life to confronting, Netanyahu is demonstrating a resurgent confidence that could signal a new turning point in his lengthy political career. Even as Iranian missiles pound Israeli cities, Netanyahu, 75, has the chance to salvage his sagging political fortunes and reshape a legacy punctured by Hamas' attacks, a corruption trial and a history of divisive rule. If he succeeds, it will cement his reputation within Israel as a political wizard who can rise from the ashes. 'Netanyahu has proven that he is a phoenix,' said veteran Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer Mazal Mualem. Netanyahu's troubled legacy is granted a lifeline The war is far from won. Israel is still vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and whatever political boost Netanyahu gains from the latest developments could dissipate by elections scheduled for next year. He is the same polarizing leader he was yesterday. Internationally, he faces an arrest warrant for charges of war crimes in Gaza. He is widely reviled across the Arab world. And after nearly two years of regionwide conflict, many critics see him as a warmonger responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza and elsewhere in the Middle East. But domestically, where Netanyahu's eyes are always focused, his legacy has been granted a lifeline. Many Israelis are attuned to Netanyahu's campaign against Iran's nuclear program, which they view as a major threat to their country and are therefore relieved by the direct involvement of the U.S. military. 'Netanyahu is seen as a very divisive and destructive leader. He is seen as someone who talks a lot and doesn't do anything,' said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu aide. 'Today, Netanyahu redeemed himself, big time.' In an early morning video statement after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Netanyahu could barely contain a smile as he thanked President Donald Trump. He said the intervention would 'change history.' It's a stunning turnaround for an Israeli leader who critics and analysts largely wrote off in the days after Oct. 7, when he presided over the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Many hold Netanyahu personally responsible for overseeing policies that enabled Hamas to retain power in Gaza for many years and build up a formidable arsenal. Netanyahu has been buoyed occasionally since then by military successes against Hamas and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. But with the Gaza war dragging on with no end in sight, and dozens of Israeli hostages still in captivity, his approval ratings have remained low. The week-old assault on Iran, highlighted by Sunday's U.S. attack, grants Netanyahu a chance for salvation. Netanyahu's yearslong focus on Iran The war caps a yearslong focus — some would say obsession — by Netanyahu on Iran and its nuclear program. Since his first term as prime minister in the 1990s, and throughout his current, nearly uninterrupted 16-year rule, he has made challenging Iran's nuclear program his life's work. Netanyahu has long portrayed Iran as an existential threat — pointing not only to its nuclear program, but also its development of long-range missiles aimed at Israel and support for hostile militant groups on Israel's borders. Iran became a repeated theme in his speeches to the Israeli and international public. He famously hoisted a cartoon bomb from the dais of U.N. General Assembly as he accused Iran of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran insists the program is for civilian purposes. At the same time, Netanyahu has made no mention of Israel's own widely suspected nuclear weapons arsenal. Netanyahu took significant diplomatic risks to pursue his crusade, including with a 2015 speech to Congress that was organized by Republican lawmakers, angering the Obama administration. During the speech, he railed against a U.S.-led deal on Iran's nuclear program just as negotiators were wrapping up its details. Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement during his first term. Some critics say that it was Netanyahu's laser focus on Iran, and the military and intelligence resources devoted to it, that blinded the Israeli leader and the defense establishment to the threat Hamas in Gaza. Hamas' attack is a stain on Netanyahu's legacy Hamas' attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage, blindsided Israel. Netanyahu, who likes to portray himself as a security hawk and the only true guardian of Israel, is seen by many as having promoted a failed strategy in the years preceding the Oct. 7 attack by sending huge amounts of aid into in Gaza under the misconception that Hamas was deterred. In fact, the Palestinian militant group would stage a brutal assault that would crush Israel's vaunted defenses and change the course of history. In the aftermath of Hamas' attack, Netanyahu's public support plummeted. Netanyahu shrugged off accountability for Hamas' attacks, pointing a finger at his security chiefs and rejecting demands for a public inquiry into the failures. He says he will answer tough questions about his role after the war, now in its 21st month. Any political boost from the war could fade by elections Netanyahu's work is not done. The war in Gaza grinds on, and Netanyahu still dreams of seeing a normalization deal between Israel and Arab powerhouse Saudi Arabia as part of his legacy. The question remains whether Netanyahu will rebound politically from the Iran war. Polls taken last week showed that Netanyahu would still struggle to form a coalition if elections were held today. Even if he gets a bump from Sunday's U.S. attack, it's not clear how long that might last. Bushinsky compared Netanyahu's potential political predicament to a world leader he likes to compare himself to, Winston Churchill, who, after leading the allies in triumphantly defeating the Nazis in World War II, did not get reelected in a 1945 vote in part because public priorities shifted dramatically. 'Bibi may be 'King of Israel,' Bushinsky said, using a nickname for Netanyahu popular among his supporters, 'but even a king has his limits.'
Toronto Star
2 hours ago
- Toronto Star
NATO leaders gather Tuesday for what could be a historic summit, or one marred by divisions
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump and his NATO counterparts are due to gather Tuesday for a summit that could unite the world's biggest security organization around a new defense spending pledge or widen divisions among the 32 allies. Just a week ago, things had seemed rosy. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was optimistic the European members and Canada would commit to invest at least as much of their economic growth on defense as the United States does for the first time.
Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
NATO leaders gather Tuesday for what could be a historic summit, or one marred by divisions
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump and his NATO counterparts are due to gather Tuesday for a summit that could unite the world's biggest security organization around a new defense spending pledge or widen divisions among the 32 allies. Just a week ago, things had seemed rosy. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was optimistic the European members and Canada would commit to invest at least as much of their economic growth on defense as the United States does for the first time. Then Spain rejected the new NATO target for each country to spend 5% of its gross domestic product on defense needs, calling it 'unreasonable.' Trump also insists on that figure. The alliance operates on a consensus that requires the backing of all 32 members. The following day, Trump said the U.S. should not have to respect the goal. 'I don't think we should, but I think they should,' he said. Trump lashed out at Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government, saying: 'NATO is going to have to deal with Spain. Spain's been a very low payer.' He also criticized Canada as 'a low payer.' Spain was the lowest spender in the alliance last year, directing less than 2% of its GDP on defense expenditure, while Canada was spending 1.45%, according to NATO figures. Then Trump ordered the bombing of nuclear installations in Iran. In 2003, the U.S.-led war on Iraq deeply divided NATO, as France and Germany led opposition to the attack, while Britain and Spain joined the coalition. European allies and Canada also want Ukraine to be at the top of the summit agenda, but they are wary that Trump might not want President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to steal the limelight. A short summit, decades of mutual security The two-day summit in The Hague involves an informal dinner Tuesday and one working session Wednesday morning. A very short summit statement has been drafted to ensure the meeting is not derailed by fights over details and wording. Indeed, much about this NATO summit is brief, even though ripples could be felt for years. Founded in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed by 12 nations to counter the threat to security in Europe posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, notably via a strong U.S. presence on the continent. Dealing with Moscow is in its DNA. Keeping the peace outside the Euro-Atlantic area is not. NATO's ranks have grown to 32 countries since the Washington Treaty was signed 75 years ago. Sweden joined last year, worried by an increasingly aggressive Russia. NATO's collective security guarantee — Article 5 of the treaty — underpins its credibility. It's a political commitment by all countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory might be under attack. Trump has suggested he is committed to that pledge, but he has also sowed doubt about his intentions. He has said the U.S. intends to remain a member of the alliance. A civilian runs NATO, but the U.S. and its military hold power The United States is NATO's most powerful member. It spends much more on defense than any other ally and far outweighs its partners in terms of military muscle. Washington has traditionally driven the agenda but has stepped back under Trump. The U.S. nuclear arsenal provides strategic deterrence against would-be adversaries. NATO's day-to-day work is led by Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister. As its top civilian official, he chairs almost weekly meetings of ambassadors in the North Atlantic Council at its Brussels headquarters. He chairs other 'NACs' at ministerial and leader levels. Rutte runs NATO headquarters, trying to foster consensus and to speak on behalf of all members. NATO's military headquarters is based nearby in Mons, Belgium. It is always run by a top U.S. officer. Ukraine's role at the summit is unclear With Trump demanding greater defense spending, it's unclear what role Ukraine will play at the summit. Zelenskyy has been invited, but it's unclear whether he will have a seat at NATO's table, although he may take part in Tuesday's dinner. Russia's war in Ukraine usually dominates such meetings. More broadly, NATO itself is not arming Ukraine. As an organization, it possesses no weapons of any kind. Collectively, it provides only non-lethal support — fuel, combat rations, medical supplies, body armor, and equipment to counter drones or mines. But individually, members do send arms. European allies provided 60% of the military support that Ukraine received in 2024. NATO coordinates those weapons deliveries via a hub on the Polish border and helps organize training for Ukrainian troops. NATO's troop plans A key part of the commitment for allies to defend one another is to deter Russia, or any other adversary, from attacking in the first place. Finland and Sweden joined NATO recently because of this concern. Under NATO's new military plans, 300,000 military personnel would be deployed within 30 days to counter any attack, whether it be on land, at sea, by air or in cyberspace. But experts doubt whether the allies could muster the troop numbers. It's not just about troop and equipment numbers. An adversary would be less likely to challenge NATO if it thought the allies would use the forces it controls. Trump's threats against U.S. allies — including imposing tariffs on them — has weakened that deterrence. The U.S. is carrying the biggest military burden Due to high U.S. defense spending over many years, the American armed forces have more personnel and superior weapons but also significant transportation and logistics assets. Other allies are starting to spend more, though. After years of cuts, NATO members committed to ramp up their national defense budgets in 2014 when Russia illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the NATO allies agreed to make 2% of GDP the minimum spending level. Last year, 22 countries were expected to hit that target, up from only three a decade ago. In The Hague, the allies were expected to up the ante to 3.5%, plus a further 1.5% for things like improving roads, bridges, ports and airfields or preparing societies to deal with future conflicts. Whether they will now remains an open question.
