Bursa Malaysia to remain cautious, CI to trade within 1,500-1,530 range
KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia is expected to remain cautious next week, tracking Wall Street's performance as markets digest signals from the United States (US) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said an analyst.
UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors Sdn Bhd's head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan noted that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) projections, characterised by slower growth, elevated inflation, and a higher unemployment trajectory for 2025–2027—suggest a stagflationary undertone, which could weigh on risk sentiment.
"Growth-sensitive sectors may face headwinds as the policy outlook remains uncertain. The split in the FOMC's dot plot, with members divided between no interest rates cuts and two cuts by year-end, implies limited near-term easing and reduces the likelihood of a July cut," he told Bernama.
Mohd Sedek also pointed out that the benchmark index is hovering near the psychological threshold of 1,500 points, adding that a breach of this level could trigger opportunistic buying by institutional investors, especially as the index nears its immediate support at 1,490 points.
"While the FOMC's guidance has introduced caution, markets may find support at lower levels, where valuations become more compelling. Geopolitical-driven volatility is often short-lived, and we expect a moderation in risk sentiment as these concerns subside," he said.
Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng market focus next week will shift to several key economic indicators, including the US quarterly gross domestic product and jobless claims.
"The FBM KLCI is currently priced at about 12 times the calendar year 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, notably below its long-term average of over 16 times, indicating potential for further appreciation.
"The subdued valuation may attract bargain hunters. For the week ahead, we expect the index to trade within the 1,500–1,530 points range," Thong added.
For the week just ended, Bursa Malaysia was mostly subdued as investors stayed on the sidelines due to ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict and the anticipated implementation of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the barometer index dropped 15.37 points to 1,502.74 from 1,518.11 a week earlier.
The FBM Emas Index fell 141.109 points to 11,228.99, the FBMT 100 Index was down 128.59 points to 11,015.45, and the FBM Emas Shariah Index declined 128.19 points to 11,201.34.
The FBM 70 Index decreased 250.96 points to 16,117.75 and the FBM ACE Index shrank 86.34 points to 4,400.85.
Across sectors, the Industrial Products and Services Index eased by 4.08 points to 147.27 and the Energy Index was 5.05 points lower at 735.71.
The Plantation Index slid 0.40 of-a-point to 7,220.52, the Healthcare Index dipped 85.83 points to 1,691.89, and the Financial Services Index tumbled 179.87 points to 17,468.38.
Turnover dropped to 13.72 billion units worth RM10.84 billion from 13.89 billion units valued at RM10.61 billion in the preceding week.
The Main Market volume fell to 6.29 billion units valued at RM9.63 billion against 6.42 billion units worth RM9.47 billion previously.
Warrants turnover expanded to 6.16 billion units worth RM845.61 million versus 5.97 billion units valued at RM687.92 million a week ago.
The ACE Market volume slipped to 1.25 billion units valued at RM361.21 million compared with 1.50 billion units worth RM458.75 million in the preceding week.
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The Star
3 hours ago
- The Star
Bursa Malaysia to remain cautious, CI to trade within the 1,500-1,500 range beginning from Monday (June 23)
KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama): Bursa Malaysia is expected to remain cautious from this Monday (June 23), tracking Wall Street's performance as markets digest signals from the United States (US) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said an analyst. UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors Sdn Bhd's head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan noted that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) projections, characterised by slower growth, elevated inflation, and a higher unemployment trajectory for 2025-2027-suggest a stagflationary undertone, which could weigh on risk sentiment. "Growth-sensitive sectors may face headwinds as the policy outlook remains uncertain. The split in the FOMC's dot plot, with members divided between no interest rates cuts and two cuts by year-end, implies limited near-term easing and reduces the likelihood of a July cut,' he told Bernama. Mohd Sedek also pointed out that the benchmark index is hovering near the psychological threshold of 1,500 points, adding that a breach of this level could trigger opportunistic buying by institutional investors, especially as the index nears its immediate support at 1,490 points. "While the FOMC's guidance has introduced caution, markets may find support at lower levels, where valuations become more compelling. Geopolitical-driven volatility is often short-lived, and we expect a moderation in risk sentiment as these concerns subside,' he said. Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng market focus next week will shift to several key economic indicators, including the US quarterly gross domestic product and jobless claims. "The FBM KLCI is currently priced at about 12 times the calendar year 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, notably below its long-term average of over 16 times, indicating potential for further appreciation. "The subdued valuation may attract bargain hunters. For the week ahead, we expect the index to trade within the 1,500-1,530 points range,' Thong added. For the week just ended, Bursa Malaysia was mostly subdued as investors stayed on the sidelines due to ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict and the anticipated implementation of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the barometer index dropped 15.37 points to 1,502.74 from 1,518.11 a week earlier. The FBM Emas Index fell 141.109 points to 11,228.99, the FBMT 100 Index was down 128.59 points to 11,015.45, and the FBM Emas Shariah Index declined 128.19 points to 11,201.34. The FBM 70 Index decreased 250.96 points to 16,117.75 and the FBM ACE Index shrank 86.34 points to 4,400.85. Across sectors, the Industrial Products and Services Index eased by 4.08 points to 147.27 and the Energy Index was 5.05 points lower at 735.71. The Plantation Index slid 0.40 of-a-point to 7,220.52, the Healthcare Index dipped 85.83 points to 1,691.89, and the Financial Services Index tumbled 179.87 points to 17,468.38. Turnover dropped to 13.72 billion units worth RM10.84 billion from 13.89 billion units valued at RM10.61 billion in the preceding week. The Main Market volume fell to 6.29 billion units valued at RM9.63 billion against 6.42 billion units worth RM9.47 billion previously. Warrants turnover expanded to 6.16 billion units worth RM845.61 million versus 5.97 billion units valued at RM687.92 million a week ago. The ACE Market volume slipped to 1.25 billion units valued at RM361.21 million compared with 1.50 billion units worth RM458.75 million in the preceding week. - Bernama
Barnama
4 hours ago
- Barnama
Economists Cautious On Malaysia's 2025 Trade Prospects Amid Tariff Uncertainty
UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors Sdn Bhd head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan said the evolving United States (US) trade tariff regime is poised to exert significant pressure on global trade dynamics, with notable implications for Malaysia's export-driven economy. KUALA LUMPUR, June 22 (Bernama) -- Economists are maintaining a cautious stance on Malaysia's trade outlook this year due to persistent global tariff uncertainty, which is expected to weigh on the country's trade and manufacturing performance. Mohd Sedek said data from May 2025 illustrates early effects. Malaysia's exports to the US declined by 2.8 per cent month-on-month to RM18.68 billion from RM19.22 billion in April, reflecting broader market adjustments. 'While global trade is unlikely to collapse, a moderation in export volumes is anticipated, with the full economic impact becoming clearer within three months of tariff implementation,' he told Bernama. He said that as a key player in ASEAN, Malaysia's trade-dependent sectors such as electronics, palm oil, and manufactured goods face both challenges and opportunities amid these disruptions. According to the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI), Malaysia's trade increased by 2.6 per cent in May 2025 to reach RM252.48 billion, marking the 17th consecutive month of year-on-year growth since January 2024. 'This aligns with global trends, as rising geopolitical frictions, particularly US-China trade tensions, prompt supply chain reconfigurations, including re-shoring (bringing production back to domestic markets), friend-shoring (relocating to allied nations), and near-shoring (shifting to geographically proximate countries),' he explained. Among Malaysia's top 10 export destinations, only four -- China, the European Union, Taiwan, and Vietnam -- recorded month-on-month export growth, underscoring uneven trade resilience. In a statement today, it said exports moderated 1.1 per cent to RM126.62 billion, while imports grew 6.6 per cent to RM125.86 billion. Trade surplus for the month stood at RM766.3 million, marking the 61st consecutive month of trade surplus since May 2020. Malaysia's Edge in ASEAN Supply Chain Realignment Mohd Sedek said Malaysia's strategic position within ASEAN positions it as a potential beneficiary of the shifts in production base. The region's growing role as a hub for friend-shoring and near-shoring, driven by its proximity to major markets like China and its relatively stable political environment, enhances Malaysia's appeal as an alternative manufacturing base. 'For instance, multinational corporations seeking to diversify away from China due to tariffs or geopolitical risks are increasingly eyeing ASEAN nations. 'Malaysia's robust electronics sector, which accounts for approximately 40 per cent of its exports, stands to gain from such reconfigurations, particularly as firms relocate semiconductor and component manufacturing to Penang and Johor,' he said. Moreover, Malaysia is leveraging its ASEAN membership to bolster trade diversification. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN and major economies like China, Japan, and South Korea, provides Malaysia with access to a market of 2.2 billion consumers, cushioning the impact of US tariffs. 'These gains reflect Malaysia's proactive pivot towards emerging markets, reducing reliance on traditional partners like the US,' he said. Tapping Semiconductor Growth Through Strategic Position Meanwhile, Mohd Sedek said, Malaysia can ride on the projected 12.5 per cent growth in global semiconductor sales by leveraging its strategic ASEAN position and aligning with friend-shoring trends. Deeper integration under RCEP and strengthened partnerships with Singapore and Vietnam will reinforce regional supply chain resilience. He advised that to attract firms shifting from China, Malaysia should build on the RM83 billion in electrical and electronic (E&E) foreign direct investment secured in 2024 and offer targeted incentives. Moving up the value chain into chip design and fabrication, backed by institutional support and workforce upskilling, is essential, he said. 'Although a potential 10 per cent US tariff may dampen exports and gross domestic product, diversifying into markets like India and Saudi Arabia, alongside investments in green manufacturing, Industry 4.0, and a gradual shift towards Industry 5.0, will position Malaysia as a neutral, high-tech hub in an increasingly fragmented global trade landscape,' he added. According to MITI, exports of E&E products continued to be resilient, registering an increase of nearly RM4 billion in May -- consistent with the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics forecast of an 11.2 per cent increase in global semiconductor sales in 2025. Echoing Mohd Sedek, RHB Investment Bank Bhd anticipates a slowdown in trade momentum as the effects of front-loading activities have dissipated. The investment bank said in the event of renewed tariff tensions following the expiration of the tariff pause, sectors heavily reliant on demand from the US and China -- as well as those with strong export orientation, such as E&E, crude materials, and machinery -- are expected to bear the brunt of both direct US tariffs on Malaysia and broader spillover effects from ongoing trade tensions. 'Furthermore, potential slower growth in major economies and lingering uncertainties over tariff tensions (especially after the pause period) pose significant downside risks to Malaysia's trade and growth outlook, reinforcing our cautious stance,' it added. -- BERNAMA BERNAMA provides up-to-date authentic and comprehensive news and information which are disseminated via BERNAMA Wires; BERNAMA TV on Astro 502, unifi TV 631 and MYTV 121 channels and BERNAMA Radio on FM93.9 (Klang Valley), FM107.5 (Johor Bahru), FM107.9 (Kota Kinabalu) and FM100.9 (Kuching) frequencies. Follow us on social media : Facebook : @bernamaofficial, @bernamatv, @bernamaradio Twitter : @ @BernamaTV, @bernamaradio Instagram : @bernamaofficial, @bernamatvofficial, @bernamaradioofficial TikTok : @bernamaofficial
New Straits Times
5 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Bursa Malaysia to remain cautious, CI to trade within 1,500-1,530 range
KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia is expected to remain cautious next week, tracking Wall Street's performance as markets digest signals from the United States (US) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said an analyst. UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors Sdn Bhd's head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan noted that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) projections, characterised by slower growth, elevated inflation, and a higher unemployment trajectory for 2025–2027—suggest a stagflationary undertone, which could weigh on risk sentiment. "Growth-sensitive sectors may face headwinds as the policy outlook remains uncertain. The split in the FOMC's dot plot, with members divided between no interest rates cuts and two cuts by year-end, implies limited near-term easing and reduces the likelihood of a July cut," he told Bernama. Mohd Sedek also pointed out that the benchmark index is hovering near the psychological threshold of 1,500 points, adding that a breach of this level could trigger opportunistic buying by institutional investors, especially as the index nears its immediate support at 1,490 points. "While the FOMC's guidance has introduced caution, markets may find support at lower levels, where valuations become more compelling. Geopolitical-driven volatility is often short-lived, and we expect a moderation in risk sentiment as these concerns subside," he said. Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng market focus next week will shift to several key economic indicators, including the US quarterly gross domestic product and jobless claims. "The FBM KLCI is currently priced at about 12 times the calendar year 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, notably below its long-term average of over 16 times, indicating potential for further appreciation. "The subdued valuation may attract bargain hunters. For the week ahead, we expect the index to trade within the 1,500–1,530 points range," Thong added. For the week just ended, Bursa Malaysia was mostly subdued as investors stayed on the sidelines due to ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict and the anticipated implementation of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the barometer index dropped 15.37 points to 1,502.74 from 1,518.11 a week earlier. The FBM Emas Index fell 141.109 points to 11,228.99, the FBMT 100 Index was down 128.59 points to 11,015.45, and the FBM Emas Shariah Index declined 128.19 points to 11,201.34. The FBM 70 Index decreased 250.96 points to 16,117.75 and the FBM ACE Index shrank 86.34 points to 4,400.85. Across sectors, the Industrial Products and Services Index eased by 4.08 points to 147.27 and the Energy Index was 5.05 points lower at 735.71. The Plantation Index slid 0.40 of-a-point to 7,220.52, the Healthcare Index dipped 85.83 points to 1,691.89, and the Financial Services Index tumbled 179.87 points to 17,468.38. Turnover dropped to 13.72 billion units worth RM10.84 billion from 13.89 billion units valued at RM10.61 billion in the preceding week. The Main Market volume fell to 6.29 billion units valued at RM9.63 billion against 6.42 billion units worth RM9.47 billion previously. Warrants turnover expanded to 6.16 billion units worth RM845.61 million versus 5.97 billion units valued at RM687.92 million a week ago. The ACE Market volume slipped to 1.25 billion units valued at RM361.21 million compared with 1.50 billion units worth RM458.75 million in the preceding week.
