What if Congress loses Tharoor? Rahul Gandhi is preparing for a re-do of Punjab in Kerala
The minister could have requested the Congress leadership to specifically nominate those four delegates if the government was so eager to have them onboard. Instead, Rijiju waited for Kharge and Gandhi to send their nominees. The government then announced its own choice of Congress nominees. The Bharatiya Janata Party leadership obviously expected Congress to not nominate Tharoor, Tewari and the other two. The Congress fell into the trap. The principal Opposition has now been left red-faced. The internal rift in the party is out in the open. But before we discuss further about how the Congress high command messed it up, let's be clear about the government playing the Opposition for political ends.
Yes, for sure. What's the point of parliamentary affairs minister Kiren Rijiju calling up Leaders of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha, Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, if the government had already decided on Congress delegates and the minister had even spoken to four of them – Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari, Salman Khurshid, and Amar Singh? It's a travesty of the 'all-party' nomenclature if the parties have no say in nominating their MPs.
One can't argue with the government's spin masters on the fact that Tharoor, as the chairman of the parliamentary standing committee on external affairs, and as someone who worked at the United Nations for nearly three decades, was eminently suited to lead a delegation to the United States and other countries. In 2019, he had refused to be a mere member of this parliamentary panel because he had headed it in the previous Lok Sabha. The Modi government didn't want him to head that committee again. The nature of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, however, forced the government to accept him as the external affairs committee chairman again. So, what do you think suddenly endeared Shashi Tharoor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had once referred to the former's wife as '50 crore-rupee girlfriend'?
Let's accept it. It's all politics. It's coming at a time when the principal Opposition party is seeking to puncture PM Modi's Vishwaguru slogan. On 18 May, Karnataka Congress posted on X: 'Over 11 years, 72 countries, and 129 visits, crores of taxpayers' money have been spent. The net outcome is zero. None of the countries supported #OperationSindoor #BJPFailsIndia.' Although it didn't name PM Modi, its list of all these visits left little for imagination.
PM Modi has visited the US 9 times since 2014, UAE, France, Japan, and Russia five times each, as per the Karnataka Congress' list. Other Congress handles and leaders have been posting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Abki baar, Trump sarkar' slogan of 2020, when the latter was seeking a re-election. With Trump making daily claims that embarrass India, the five-year-old slogan has come back to haunt the Modi government. The Congress is seeking to damage the Vishwaguru claims, asking why India abstained instead of voting against the bailout package for Pakistan at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board meeting. That India couldn't convince any other country to vote against this package for Pakistan has given the Opposition another handle to beat the BJP government with. The Opposition obviously senses an opportunity to bring down Modi's Vishwaguru image, a big electoral pull for the BJP.
The government has played it well. The optics of all-party delegations comprising 45 MPs and six senior leaders who will visit 33 world capitals are expected to dent the Opposition's onslaught on that count. There are 19 Opposition leaders in these delegations – most of them known to be very vocal and articulate. Come to think of it. Tharoor, Tewari and three other Congress leaders would be defending India's war against terror and the government's stance abroad while their party is attacking the government at home for its alleged failure to get international support. So, if and when there is a debate in Parliament, the Opposition parties would feel compelled to not field any of their MPs on these delegations.
BJP's political game
Modi government played Congress in selecting the all-party delegations. Alright, but isn't it par for the course in politics? Why did the Congress get played? People like Shashi Tharoor and Manish Tewari are known to speak their minds, especially when it comes to national security. They don't get safe seats to contest from—the way the Gandhis got minority-dominated Wayanad.
Manish Tewari contested three Lok Sabha elections from three different constituencies and won each time. Tharoor contested in 2009 for the first time from Thiruvananthapuram, where the Communist Party of India (CPI) had won twice previously. He has retained the seat since then. These leaders, who have to sweat it out in the constituency every day, have to be mindful of the public sentiments and respond accordingly.
So, while the BJP played politics in its selections for the all-party delegations, the principal Opposition was naive enough to get played. Tharoor and Tewari are respected, articulate voices on international geo-strategic fora. Salman Khurshid is the former minister of external affairs. They should have been the natural choices as Congress nominees for the all-party delegations. Why did the Congress snub them by excluding them from its list of nominees? A simple answer—pettiness and vested interests. The clique of sycophants surrounding Rahul Gandhi and his family make him insecure and won't let him see the reality that they are using him for their own vested interests.
Also read: 'Should've sought concurrence'—Congress miffed by Tharoor accepting govt invite for all-party delegations
Congress insults Tharoor
I will confine myself to Shashi Tharoor and Kerala politics here. Here is a situation where the Congress is virtually humiliating him. Think of the party's national general secretary (communications), Jairam Ramesh, publicly undermining Tharoor with a series of loaded comments. Ramesh said that whatever Tharoor spoke was his personal opinion, not the party's. Read the other remarks by Ramesh: There is a huge difference between being in the Congress and of the Congress; the Congress is like the mighty Ganga, which has many tributaries…some of them dry up and some get polluted. So, what's there for a 'polluted' Shashi Tharoor to keep being a Ganga tributary? He says he is not easily humiliated, but his party is testing his limits.
Everybody knows who's behind this humiliation. It's KC Venugopal, the powerful general secretary (organisation) who has total control over Rahul Gandhi. Venugopal's chief ministerial ambition is hardly a secret. So he has to get every competitor—the biggest being Tharoor—out of the way. Knowing Venugopal's complete hold over Rahul, everyone else close to the Gandhis—say, Jairam Ramesh—must smear Shashi Tharoor. Well, Modi government saw an opportunity and jumped in. Why blame the BJP then?
Let's go back to how the Gandhis humiliated Punjab's then-chief minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, in the run up to the 2022 assembly election – just because the blue-blooded ex-royal who was a friend of Rajiv Gandhi from Doon School days didn't bring himself to flatter the latter's children. The Gandhi siblings also developed a liking for Singh's detractor, Navjot Sidhu, the cricketer-turned-politician who had quit the BJP to join the Congress. The Congress lost the 2022 Punjab assembly election, but the Gandhis won as they became instrumental in Capt. Amarinder Singh's political retirement.
A similar plot is unfolding in Kerala, because Rahul Gandhi is so enamoured with KC Venugopal. Congress leaders don't know why, but Tharoor must go. The high command humiliated Amarinder Singh enough for him to resign and part ways. And KC-Jairam & Co is doing enough for Tharoor to do the same sooner or later. Who cares if the Congress wins or loses in Kerala?
Also read: Excluded by Congress, Shashi Tharoor says 'honoured' by govt's invitation to join all-party delegation
Tharoor's options
What are Tharoor's options? He has chief ministerial ambitions, for sure. Why not? A four-term MP with so much following across Kerala and the rest of the country can't be faulted for this ambition. After all, he is someone that the youth across caste lines adore. The two dominant minorities in Kerala, the Christians and the Muslims who constitute 45 per cent of the population, love his liberal views and outlook. The Nair Service Society, an organisation claiming to represent the second most dominant community in Kerala, is willing to embrace him.
Meanwhile, the Ezhavas, the most dominant Hindu community in Kerala who have been traditionally aligned with the Left, are showing signs of change in loyalty. According to a CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey conducted during the 2021 assembly elections, 23 per cent of Ezhavas voted for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—up from 18 per cent in 2016. According to the post-poll survey in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, 32 per cent Ezhavas voted for the NDA. So, the Left voters are already splitting. As for the Nairs, their votes for the BJP went up from 27 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections to 45 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
So, those who think that Tharoor doesn't have the option of switching to the BJP are wrong. This data should come as a reality check. Look at the difference in the vote shares of Tharoor and his closest rival, BJP's Rajiv Chandrashekhar, in Thiruvananthapuram in the 2024 Lok Sabha constituency. There is a difference of 16,000 votes or so. And a significant number of Congress voters were actually Tharoor voters. So, when we start talking about how Tharoor can't go with the BJP in Kerala, here is a clear answer, in a question: why not? His parliamentary constituency will be safe. The Congress is not making him the CM face anyway. So, if he becomes the BJP's CM candidate, what does he have to lose? Look at the possible scenarios. First, a large section of the Hindu voters – with a significant section among Nairs and Ezhavas already veering toward the BJP – go with Tharoor.
Second, Tharoor may still enjoy popularity among minorities—something that happened in the case of BJP's successful Thrissur candidate, Suresh Gopi.
This opens up the game. I am certainly not suggesting that Tharoor is going to the BJP. I am talking hypothetically. If he decides to quit the Congress — given how determined KC Venugopal and Jairam Ramesh are to push him out — he has many options. The Left will also embrace him, for sure. I remember the day he had come to visit the AKG Bhawan, headquarters of the Communist Party of India – Marxist (CPI-M) in New Delhi, in 2006.
Back then, he wanted India to back his candidature for the UN secretary-general's post, and the Left wielded a lot of power in that government. I still remember how the comrades were so excited about that visit. Recently appointed CPI(M) general secretary, MA Baby, has said that CM Pinarayi Vijayan, 79, will lead the poll campaign in the 2026 elections, but that the CM will be elected after the elections if the Left wins. Basically, Vijayan is not necessarily the next CM if the Left wins again. So, does Tharoor have an option to realise his dreams in the Left? They would love to welcome him for sure. But a non-Comrade has no chance at claiming the coveted seat. KC Venugopal's Congress won't give it to him anyway. So, if Tharoor has to realise his ambitions and implement his vision for the state, the BJP remains a choice— given that Rahul Gandhi & Co are doing their best to push him out.
Tharoor would, of course, remember how the Gandhis finished Captain Amarinder Singh through a thousand cuts, humiliating him on a daily basis. As it is, the Gandhis seem to be preparing for a re-do of Punjab in the Kerala assembly elections early next year.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
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