No Canada! North-of-the-border buyers pull back as trade war heats up
Belligerent rhetoric from the White House about being annexed to the United States and combative trade negotiations are denting Canadian interest in owning American property, just as the housing market south of the shared border is starting to cool.
Canadians made up the biggest share of foreign buyers of U.S. residential real estate in 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors, with 13% of the foreign purchase market – followed by China and Mexico at 11% each. In five years out of the last decade, Canadians have led foreign purchases.
Miles Zimbaluk came to the Phoenix area from Saskatchewan in the wake of the 2008 subprime crisis, and 'fell in love' with Arizona, he said. A favorable exchange rate and low-priced properties helped convince him to stay, and he founded Canada to USA and Cross Border Insurance, real estate services firms that help north-of-the-border buyers and renters.
'I never expected to see anything like this,' Zimbaluk said in an interview. 'People have absolutely been turned off by the talk of annexation.' The rhetoric has pushed some people to sell the second homes they have owned in Arizona, and others are deciding to hold off rather than buy, he said.
In the first quarter of 2025, Canadians have listed more than 700 homes for sale in Maricopa County, compared to 100 homes in the same period last year, Zimbaluk said. Canadians own about 30,000 properties in the county, however.
Data from Realtor.com confirms that Canadian interest is waning. Canadians still made up the largest share of online home viewers in the first quarter, at 34.7%, but that's down sharply from 2024, when they represented 40.7% of house-hunters.
For now, the slowdown isn't a huge concern, said Jiayi Xu, a Realtor.com economist, but is definitely something to keep an eye on. For the most part, Canadians buy in warmer metros with lower taxes – like Arizona and Florida – and as second-home buyers, are more interested in higher-priced properties, so those are the market segments she's watching most closely.
Still, any slowdown in demand isn't helpful for the weakening U.S. housing market. In April, sales of previously-owned homes were at the slowest pace for any April since 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors. The pace of sales set that month was below the 4.06 million mark achieved in 2024, which was the worst year since 1995.
In South Florida, real estate agents are 'absolutely' seeing less demand from Canadians, said Jeff Lichtenstein, the owner and broker of Echo Fine Properties, headquartered in the greater Palm Beach area.
'Some of it is uncertainty, some of it is not feeling as welcome,' Lichtenstein told USA TDOAY. 'As a country, we're making a lot of news. We're in the news a lot. None of that is good for tourism or buying real estate."
To be sure, many Canadians are motivated by factors other than politics. Home prices have risen dramatically, particularly in the sunnier metro areas favored by snowbirds, making now a good time to cash out on a purchase made some time ago. It also makes buying an iffier proposition, particularly when coupled with an unfavorable exchange rate. The "loonie" has weakened compared to the U.S dollar in recent months, making it more expensive for Canadians to buy American goods.
'We think Canada's economy has slipped into a trade war-induced recession that will last through the end of 2025 unless a deal is reached to immediately reduce U.S. tariffs,' analysts at Oxford Economics wrote in a June 13 report. 'Job losses and higher prices due to the pass-through of tariffs and worsening supply chain strains will weigh on disposable income and consumer confidence. This will cause households to rein in spending and likely extend the recent weakness in the resale housing market.'
Read next The US is short millions of housing units. Mass deportations could make it worse.
What's more, the longstanding sense of America as a welcoming haven with friendly people has been damaged, real estate agents say. Lichtenstein notes that the White House's stance on South- and Central American immigrants is likely to be felt in the Miami area, making it a one-two punch for Florida real estate.
'A lot of people are saying they don't feel comfortable being in the U.S.,' Zimbaluk said. While no-one is concerned for their safety, per se, he has heard of some people with Canadian license plates having nasty notes left on their windshields. 'There's just so much uncertainty. Everyone is trying to find their own way.'
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: No Canada! Why fewer snowbirds are buying U.S. homes
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