It Really Looks Like the U.S. Is Headed for War With Iran

Sign up for the Slatest to get the most insightful analysis, criticism, and advice out there, delivered to your inbox daily.
By the time you read this, the United States might be at war with Iran. If not, check back in a few hours or a couple of days, as President Donald Trump is giving every indication that he'll join the fighting soon.
True, Trump has gone back and forth on the issue of escalation vs. diplomacy in this war and in others, but his words and actions in the last 24 hours suggest that he's opted for escalation.
As recently as Monday, he was still holding out the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. On Tuesday, he gave Iran a very different demand—'unconditional surrender.' That was President Franklin D. Roosevelt's goal against Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War II: It meant the enemy's total defeat, abject disarmament, and what we now call 'regime change.'
Trump also posted on social media: 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.' We? He'd said on Monday that he might get involved in the war but hadn't done so yet. It seems that now he is involved, at least in his mind—and possibly in his orders—if not quite yet on or over the battlefield.
What has changed in 24 hours is that Israel seems to be on the upswing, pounding target after target, while Iran's efforts at striking back are less than stunning and its prospects for regime survival, much less victory, are dimming. Trump likes winners and wants to join their team. Or, as Charlie Stevenson, who teaches American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies put it in his Policy Matters Substack on Tuesday, 'I think he has FOMO [fear of missing out] and wants to be able to brag that he ended the Iran nuclear threat.'
Will he end the threat? Iran has two main uranium enrichment sites, Natanz and Fordo. Both are buried underground. Natanz is a bit more accessible; an Israeli barrage of bombs, on the first day of the war, reportedly did damage to the plant. However, Fordo is buried inside a mountain, almost 300 feet beneath the surface. The only 'bunker-busting' bomb that could destroy the site is the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which only the U.S. has; and the only plane heavy enough to carry the MOP across any distance is the B-2 bomber, which only the U.S. has. (Yes, the mountain could also be demolished by a nuclear weapon, which the U.S. and Israel possess; but I doubt even Trump or Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would go that far.)
What about regime change? Early on in the war, Netanyahu reportedly told Trump he wanted to kill Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but Trump vetoed the idea. Could he now be reconsidering? In World War II, 'unconditional surrender' meant, among other things, killing or at least removing Hitler and Hirohito. Trump said on Tuesday that he knows where 'the so-called Supreme Leader' is hiding, adding that he didn't want him killed—'for now.'
Regime change does seem to be on the agenda, given the types of targets Israel is hitting—not just nuclear infrastructure, but Iranian media, economic infrastructure, and top commanders. (Some call this expansion of targets 'mission creep,' but actually it seems this has been Netanyahu's mission since the campaign got underway.)
But then what? Who succeeds the ayatollah? If some Western-leaning, secular opposition figures are waiting in the wings, they haven't been identified. It's another question whether some Western intelligence agency is funding such figures, but it's hard to imagine them rising to the fore and commanding the loyalty or even the interest of Iran's masses without having carved out a public image well ahead of time. It's also worth distinguishing regime change mounted by a native Iranian movement from regime change launched by a foreign power, especially powers like Israel and the United States, which a fair number of Iranians still regard as the devil.
The current regime is deeply unpopular among many Iranians, especially young people in the cities, many of whom are pro-Western or at least desire to join the Western world. But even among those people, there is distrust of foreign meddlers, intensified by the 'Mossadegh complex'—memories of Mohammad Mossadegh, a popular Iranian prime minister, overthrown in 1953 by the CIA and British oil companies, which then installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (aka 'the Shah of Iran'), who ruled as a tyrant until the Islamist revolution in 1979.
Does Israel or the United States have a plan for a post-ayatollah Iran? Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lost its commander, but the corps itself survives, and it controls much of the country's economy and social structure. Would they sign the 'unconditional surrender' papers? If so, to whom would they surrender?
Iran is almost four times the size of Iraq, with a population of 92 million. Does Trump or Netanyahu imagine that the Iranian people will greet the foreign victors—especially American and Israeli victors—as their liberators? Some might, but it's worth recalling that Iraqis didn't roll over, despite the widespread hatred of Saddam Hussein. Iranians aren't likely to do so either. More likely, the aftermath of a coup, assassination, military decimation, or whatever method brings down the Iranian regime is likely to resemble post-Saddam Iraq—chaos, instability, and civil war, possibly infecting the entire region.
'Israel is good at winning battles but not at winning wars,' Stevenson, the Johns Hopkins foreign policy professor, observed in his Substack piece. The same has often been true of the United States. Winning battles is a function of military might. Winning wars—even absolute wars ended through unconditional surrender—requires political, strategic, and diplomatic acumen. The Allies didn't leave Germany and Japan to stew in their squalor; they had a plan not just for defeating the old regimes but helping to build new ones. Does Trump, Netanyahu, or anybody else have a plan for Iran? What, to them, does winning the war mean?

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Newsweek

29 minutes ago

• Newsweek

Gavin Newsom Challenges JD Vance: 'How About Saying It to My Face?'

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. California Governor Gavin Newsom on Friday challenged Vice President JD Vance to a debate after the vice president visited Los Angeles and accused him of "egging on" violent disorder in the city. In a post on his X, formerly Twitter, account, the governor wrote: "...Since you're so eager to talk about me, how about saying it to my face?" Newsweek contacted Vance for comment on Saturday via email to the White House press office outside of regular office hours. Why It Matters U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have expanded their operations in Los Angeles and across the country as President Donald Trump seeks to deliver on his campaign promise to carry out the largest deportation operation in United States history. ICE conducted raids in Los Angeles and faced large protests in the city that largely remained peaceful with some instances of violence that prompted Trump to order the deployment of 4,000 members of California's National Guard and 700 U.S. Marines to assist in stopping violence, even as Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass insisted local law enforcement had the matter under control and a legal battle has pursued. The raids are following legal directive from federal authorities, but critics have raised concerns about the treatment of migrants by federal authorities as well as the tactics used by immigration agents during the raids. What To Know During his visit to Los Angeles on Friday to meet with troops, including Marines who have been deployed to protect federal buildings in the city, Vance said rioters had been "egged on" by Newsom and Bass, telling reporters: "The president has a very simple proposal to everybody in every city, every community, every town whether big or small. If you enforce your own laws and if you protect federal law enforcement, we're not going to send in the national guard because it's unnecessary. He added: "But if you let violent rioters burn great American cities to the ground, then of course we're going to send in federal law enforcement to protect the people the president was elected to protect." Vance also referred to Senator Alex Padilla, a California Democrat who was handcuffed and forcibly removed from a press conference DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was holding in Los Angeles earlier this month, as "Jose Padilla." Noem has said Padilla did not identify himself when he arrived at the conference, but Padilla disputes the claim. Responding on X, Newsom wrote: "Hey @JDVance — nice of you to finally make it out to California. Since you're so eager to talk about me, how about saying it to my face? Let's debate. Time and place?" In a separate X post, the governor shared a clip of Vance calling Padilla "Jose Padilla," adding: "JD Vance served with Alex Padilla in the United States Senate. Calling him 'Jose Padilla' is not an accident." California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks on March 26 in Los Angeles. Vice President JD Vance addresses the press following a tour of the multiagency Federal Joint Operations Center at the Wilshire Federal Building on June... California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks on March 26 in Los Angeles. Vice President JD Vance addresses the press following a tour of the multiagency Federal Joint Operations Center at the Wilshire Federal Building on June 20 in Los Angeles. More Frazer Harrison/WireImage/Scott Olson/GETTY What People Are Saying Referring to the Padilla incident, a Vance spokesperson previously told Newsweek that: "He must have mixed up two people who have broken the law." Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said: "Mr. Vice President, how dare you disrespect our senator. You don't know his name," Bass questioned. "But yet you served with him before you were vice president and you continue to serve with him today, because the last time I checked, the vice president of the United States is the president of the U.S. Senate." She added: "You serve with him today and how dare you disrespect him and call him 'Jose.' But I guess he just looked like anybody to you. Well, he's not just anybody to us. He is our senator." President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social last week: "I campaigned on, and received a Historic Mandate for, the largest Mass Deportation Program in American History. Polling shows overwhelming Public Support for getting the Illegals out, and that is exactly what we will do. As Commander-in-Chief, I will always protect and defend the Heroes of ICE and Border Patrol, whose work has already resulted in the Most Secure Border in American History. Anyone who assaults or attacks an ICE or Border Agent will do hard time in jail. Those who are here illegally should either self deport using the CBP Home App or, ICE will find you and remove you. Saving America is not negotiable!" What Happens Next? Vance has yet to respond to Newsom's offer of a debate and it remains to be seen if he will do so. In December 2023, Newsom debated against Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis after the two went back-and-forth on their policies. Meanwhile, a U.S. appeals court on Thursday unanimously blocked a lower court ruling that put Newsom back in control of National Guard troops that Trump deployed to Los Angeles. The appeals court ruled that the president can keep control of the guardsmen while legal proceedings in the case continue.

Fox News

34 minutes ago

• Fox News

Israeli hostage families make desperate plea to Trump as 'time is running out'

JERUSALEM—The family members of Israeli hostages held in captivity by the U.S.-designated terrorist movement Hamas published an open letter on Thursday to President Trump, urging him to intervene to help free the 53 remaining people held in Gaza. "As Iranian missiles streak across the sky above us, our hearts remain consumed by thoughts of our beloved family members enduring brutal Hamas captivity. 53 precious souls—our children, parents, siblings, and spouses—remain trapped in hell. "For over 620 endless days, they have had no shelter, no family's embrace, no whispered words of comfort. Their time is running out. We write to you united in this unique anguish, yet bound by unshakable faith in your leadership and commitment to bringing our loved ones home," wrote the Israeli group Hostages and Missing Families Forum on the social media platform Truth Social -Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) is the parent company of Truth Social. The family members urged the President to "seize the opportunity while Iran and Hamas are at their weakest point." President Trump secured the freedom of the 21-year-old American-Israeli Edan Alexander from Hamas captivity on May 12. Eden returned to his hometown in New Jersey on Thursday after nearly 600 days in captivity. Fox News Digital sent press queries to the White House and the U.S. State Department, seeking comment about the open letter published on Truth Social to President Trump. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters at Soroka Hospital in Be'er Sheva—the site of an Iranian missile strike—that "The real barrier of Hamas is Iran. It will bring down Iran . . . Hamas is dying, and it will undoubtedly help to return the hostages." Netanyahu said Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran is aiding the Jewish state's efforts to secure the release of hostages held by the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza. He added, "I do not close my eyes for a moment" about the hostages. Netanyahu told Isarel's Kan public broadcaster that "Hamas relies on Iran." Hamas' recalcitrance about agreeing to a ceasefire that would enable the hostages to be released has been the major obstacle for America's efforts to secure their freedom after 623 days of war. Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, and massacred over 1,200 people, including Americans. and kidnapped more than 250 people. Netanyahu stressed, with respect to the hostages and the war against Iran, that "I am determined to bring all of them home . . . I will not give up on this, and there are also steps that we will take in these moments for this goal. . . . The destruction of the nuclear weapons, the destruction of missiles, the elimination of our targets." The Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters released a statement from family members about the burial of murdered hostage Yair Yaakov on Friday, who was laid to rest at Kibbutz Nir Oz after 623 days in captivity. Or Yaakov, Yair's son, who was released from Hamas captivity as part of a deal, said, "Dad, you were such a special person. An exemplary father, a true friend. You left behind an enormous void that nothing will ever be able to fill. But I promise you, I will keep your memories alive within me. I will tell your stories, I will laugh at and with your jokes, and most importantly, I will live the way you would want me to live - with flow, simplicity, and contentment. Rest in peace, my dear father. You will always be in my heart, with every breath I take. I love you forever." The Times of Israel reported that the operation to recover Yair Yaakov was carried out by the army's 36th Division following precise intelligence from military and security intelligence. Reuters named Aviv Atzili as the second person recovered during the operation. Atzili, a warrant officer in the reserves and a member of Kibbutz Nir Oz's civil defense squad, was killed battling Hamas-led terrorists in the Gaza border community on October 7, 2023.

Buzz Feed

40 minutes ago

• Buzz Feed

Trump Asks White House Workers If They're Undocumented

This week, Donald Trump held a press conference on the White House South Lawn to show off his new gigantic American flag pole. While surrounded by a group of White House service workers, a reporter questioned Trump about his policies surrounding ICE raids at worksites, and that's when things got extremely awkward. "DHS said this week that worksite enforcement would remain in place, that it's a cornerstone, so what's your message to farmers?" a reporter asked Trump. "We gotta get the bad people out of here first. We're doing that. We're taking them out by the thousands. Murderers, drug dealers, uh, people that are mentally insane from insane asylums," Trump replied. He then turned around to face the service workers and asked: "Any illegal immigrants here? No? I'll tell you what, if they were, they'll find out," he said, gesturing towards the press. "They'll be checking you, you won't believe. You're whole life will be destroyed because of this press conference. They'll destroy these people." Some of the workers laughed as Trump continued: "I didn't want to tell them that before they stood out. They'll end up being, he's so-and-so, and this one is from you know where. Don't worry, I think you're going to be ok," Trump said, chuckling. "How the F*CK is this funny???" this person asked. "What a disgusting question. If someone had said yes, would #donaldtrump go and get Holman?" another person wrote. This person called Trump, "Fucking shameful." "Trump says the lives of the construction workers with him would have had their lives destroyed if they were 'illegal.' He knows he's destroying lives, and jokes about it. He's deporting working people and destroying their families. This BS about 'insane' immigrants is disgusting," another person wrote. What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments.