MLB Notebook: What will it look like if the Red Sox are sellers at trade deadline?
It goes without saying that this was not how the Red Sox envisioned the 2025 season unfolding.
After showing a renewed aggressiveness last offseason in the free agent market (Alex Bregman, Aroldis Chapman, Walker Buehler and Justin Wilson) and trade market (Garrett Crochet), the Sox pushed past the first CBT (competitive balance tax) threshold for the first time in several years.
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And what hasn't it gotten them? An underperforming roster with multiple holes, some familiar shortcomings (errors, RISP issues), and a sub-.500 record.
Surely, at the start of the year, the Sox anticipated augmenting their roster at the trade deadline, armed with an overflow of desirable prospects who could fetch established major leagues to round out their roster with an eye toward the franchise's first playoff visit since 2021.
And now? The possibility exists, if the team doesn't rebound and soon, that the Sox may be reluctant sellers on July 31, focused on shedding veterans who could fetch still more prospects as the Sox continue their rebuild.
That wasn't the plan, of course. It could be argued that the Sox haven't been in full sell mode since 2014, when they auctioned off Jon Lester, just nine months after he had helped pitch them to another World Series title.
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(They probably should have been sellers more often, including 2015 when, on their way to a second-straight last place finish, they unloaded only outfielder Shane Victorino).
Obviously, the Red Sox don't wish to be sellers next month. The hope is that the team rights itself, gets improved performance from both the rotation and the lineup, and plays well enough to climb back into contention.
There are plenty of recent examples of teams rallying in mid-summer, including the 2019 Washington Nationals, the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, to name two.
As it is, the Sox enter their weekend series in New York just four games out of the last wildcard spot. That's hardly an insurmountable number.
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But what if there's no improvement coming? What if, high hopes and all, this is who the Red Sox are?
In that case, there would be an auction. Which players would become available and who would have the most value?
A look:
STARTING PITCHERS
At first glance, this would seem an unlikely place from which to deal since the rotation has been among the biggest weaknesses — Garrett Crochet aside.
But contending teams are desperate to bolster starting rotations every July, and just because a pitcher has failed to meet expectations doesn't mean there aren't teams still interested, believing that they can figure things out – if only for a few months.
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Walker Buehler would be the most sought-after, if mostly for his resume rather than his 2024 performance to date. Buehler has a ton of postseason experience, with 18 starts in either the NLDS, NLCS or World Series. As recently as last year, he won one game in the World Series and closed out the Dodgers' clinching game.
His 4.44 ERA may not be sterling this year, but there have been a few outings in which he's put everything together and showed flashes of his younger self. That will be enough for teams to have interest, especially since Buehler is on what is effectively a one-year deal. He would cost about $7 million for the final two months of the season, which is tantamount to chump change in today's marketplace.
Count Lucas Giolito in this category, too, with two important distinctions: 1) He doesn't have anywhere near Buehler's October track record and 2) He's coming off internal brace surgery in March of 2024 and, somewhat predictably, has struggled with consistency after missing all of last season.
Is Giolito the guy who has thrice pitched through the sixth inning or longer? Or is he the guy who's been shelled for six runs or more on three other occasions. Even the Red Sox are unsure about the answer to that one.
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But the mere fact that Giolito has even occasionally provided quality starts will attract suitors. Like Buehler, he's effectively on a one-year deal and would cost a little more than $6 million, with the potential for a small buyout ($1.5 million) for a team option in 2026 if he gets to 140 innings before the end of the season.
BULLPEN
Teams are also seemingly always looking to upgrade their bullpens, making Aroldis Chapman a very valuable piece. In fact, other than the Cardinals' Ryan Helsley, Chapman could be the most in-demand closer in the game in six weeks.
Chapman is having a fine season, having converted nine of 10 save opportunities. He still gets a lot of swing-and-miss (11.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), and is on track to post his lowest WHIP and lowest walk rate since 2020. At 37, Chapman remains a physical marvel.
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Add in the fact that he's lefthanded, offering matchup possibilities and there may be no end to potential teams with interest. Certainly, his salary obligations — he'll be due just $3.5 million for the final two months — won't scare anybody off.
Fellow bullpen southpaw Justin Wilson is another with value. Wilson doesn't close, but he has been terrific against lefty hitters, holding them to a .115 batting average. At a time of year when teams are searching for the smallest advantage, trading for a veteran who can get tough lefties out will create a strong market.
The fact that he'll be owed less than $1 million for the final third of the season only increases his attractiveness.
POSITION PLAYERS
It will be fascinating to see how they handle the Alex Bregman situation. (This presumes, of course, that Bregman is back well before the deadline and fully recovered from his significant quad injury).
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Bregman's deal with the Red Sox was a three-year deal, but it really translates into three one-year contracts, since he has opt-out language after this year and next.
If things continue to go sideways and the Red Sox think that Bregman is going to opt-out anyway, they could move him at the deadline and then try to re-sign him over the winter — albeit to a longer pact than last time.
Imagine the amount of interest at the deadline from the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers — two teams that unsuccessfully pursued Bregman last offseason – since both are expected to be very much in playoff contention.
Given Bregman's impact both on and off the field, it's entirely feasible that the Sox could approach him in the coming weeks with a longer extension and remove the chance of moving him next month.
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If not, Bregman's trade value will by sky high if the Sox are forced to sell.
Rob Refnsyder may 'only' be a role player, but that doesn't mean he's without a market. Refnsyder typically mashes lefties (.962 OPS this season) and would be an attractive pickup as a platoon player or pinch-hitter. It's not out of the realm of possibility that some team may see him as an everyday option, too, given that he's got an .875 OPS against righties this season in an admittedly small sample size.
The Sox value Refsnyder's role as a clubhouse voice and leader and might want to bring him back for 2026, but given his age (34) and the fact that he contemplated retirement at recently as the end of last season, it's unclear how much longer he intends to keep playing.
At the start of the year, Connor Wong was the team's primary option behind the plate, and with the loss of Kyle Teel, that status seemed to provide him with some job security on the roster.
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But things can change quickly in baseball, and just a few months later, Carlos Narvaez as emerged as the catcher of the present and future. That makes Wong expendable, and with three full seasons of control, he wouldn't be just a short-term rental.
It's unlikely that many other teams view Wong as a No. 1 catcher at this point, but he could certainly fill that role for a short period of time if injuries strike. Also, his athleticism and versatility (he's capable of at least filling in at a few infield spots) could up his value.
____________
The Colorado Rockies are flirting with history this season – and not in a good way.
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The Rockies entered Thursday with a 12-50 record, and that came after they swept a series from the Miami Marlins, constituting their longest winning streak of the season.
Earlier, they became the first franchise to lose 50 games before winning their 10th game of the season. They're on pace to obliterate the ineptitude of last year's Chicago White Sox, who set a modern record in 2024 with 121 losses.
All of which can't help but make Ellis Burks, the former Red Sox outfielder and TV analyst, sad.
'It's unfortunate,' said Burks, 'I have no idea what the problem is. I don't know if it's scouting or player development. I've talked to some people there and they can't figure it out. But they're spiraling in the wrong direction. I don't know if they're trying to rebuild and it's going to take a few years, but it's unfortunate what's happened. It's tough to watch.
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'They do have a great fan base. Fans were hungry for a team, so it was great to place a franchise there. But it hasn't gone well for a while there.'
Burks spent almost five seasons with the Rockies in the 1990s when the club annually drew almost four million fans and set offensive records with their powerful lineup.
The 'Blake St. Bombers' featured, among others, Burks, Dante Bichette, Andres Galarraga, Vinny Castilla and Larry Walker. They would bludgeon teams to death and provide high-scoring action on a nightly basis.
Even when they didn't win, fans at Coors Field got their money's worth.
'We knew it was going to be a track meet every night,' recalled Burks. 'We knew we had to score nine and hope the pitching staff held them to eight. The atmosphere in those years was electric every night. We knew whoever was coming into Coors Field were already thinking about what they were going to be facing.
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'I used to say it was a 'Nightmare on Blake St' for pitchers. I don't care who it was — I guarantee you, they had nightmares before games. It was one of those situations where we knew we were good. We knew we were going to score runs. We would tell the pitching staff, even if they gave up three or four runs in the first inning, 'Don't worry – we got you.' And the fans knew that as well That brought a lot of excitement to the Denver region where they came out in bundles to watch us play."
Now, however, the Rockies can neither hit nor pitch, and the losses are stacking up at a record pace.
'They're going to have to figure it out and figure it out fast,' said Burks. 'Otherwise they're going to become the worst team in major league history and that's one title you don't want.'
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