Iran strikes mark Trump's biggest foreign policy gamble

With his unprecedented decision to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, directly joining Israel's air attack on its regional arch-foe, US President Donald Trump has done something he'd long vowed to avoid - intervene militarily in a major foreign war.
The dramatic US strike, including the targeting of Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear installation deep underground, marks the biggest foreign policy gamble of Trump's two presidencies and one fraught with risks and unknowns.
Trump insisted on Saturday that Iran must now make peace or face further attacks.
But the strikes could provoke Tehran into retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil artery, attacking US military bases and allies in the Middle East, stepping up its missile barrage on Israel and activating proxy groups against US and Israeli interests worldwide, analysts said.
Such moves evoke echoes of the "forever wars" the US fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Trump had derided as "stupid" and promised never to be dragged into.
In the lead-up to the bombing, the US President had vacillated between threats of military action and appeals for renewed negotiation to persuade Iran to reach a deal to dismantle its nuclear program.
A senior White House official said that once Trump was convinced that Tehran had no interest in reaching a nuclear agreement, he decided the strikes were "the right thing to do."
Trump gave the go-ahead once he was assured of a "high probability of success," more than a week of Israeli air attacks on Iran's nuclear and military facilities had paved the way.
But some experts suggested that while Iran's nuclear program may have been set back for many years, the threat may be far from over.
Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, saying its program is for purely peaceful purposes.
"In the long term, military action is likely to push Iran to determine nuclear weapons are necessary for deterrence and that Washington is not interested in diplomacy," the Arms Control Association, a non-partisan US-based organisation that advocates for arms control legislation, said in a statement.
In the immediate aftermath of the US strikes, Iran showed little appetite for concessions.
Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation said it would not allow development of its "national industry" to be stopped, and an Iranian state television commentator said every US citizen or military member in the region would now be legitimate targets.
Some analysts suggested that Trump, whose administration has previously disavowed any aim of dislodging the Iranian leadership, could be drawn into seeking "regime change" if Tehran carries out major reprisals or moves to build a nuclear weapon.
"Beware mission creep, aiming for regime change and democratisation campaigns," said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. "You'll find the bones of many failed US moral missions buried in Middle East sands."
Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy intelligence officer for the Middle East, said Iran's leadership would quickly engage in "disproportionate attacks" if it felt its survival was imperilled.
But Tehran will also have to be mindful of the consequences, he said. While actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz would pose problems for Trump with the resulting higher oil prices and potential US inflationary impact, it would also hurt China, one of Iran's few powerful allies.
At the same time, Trump is already facing strong push-back from congressional Democrats against the Iran attack and will also have to contend with opposition from the anti-interventionist wing of his Republican MAGA base.
Trump's slogan of "peace through strength" will certainly be tested as never before, especially with his opening of a new military front after failing to meet his campaign promises to quickly end wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

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Mitch McConnell weighs in on U.S. strikes in Iran

HENDERSON, Ky (WEHT) – Indiana Governor Mike Braun and Senator Todd Young gave their thoughts on the U.S. strikes in Iran, and now, Senator Mitch McConnell has given his thoughts. McConnell 'commends' President Donald Trump for using 'decisive action' and standing with Israel. His full statement can be read below. 'Israel's bold response to the war thrust upon it by Iran's proxies has created a unique opportunity to cripple Iran's nuclear ambitions and strike a lasting blow to its hegemonic aggression. Seizing this opportunity is not an escalation toward war — it is a prudent response to the warmongers in Tehran. Iran would be foolish to misunderstand American resolve. I commend the President for authorizing decisive action and all U.S. servicemembers responsible for carrying it out. The United States' interest in denying Iran a nuclear weapon, in standing with our ally, Israel, and in reestablishing credible deterrent power is undeniable and urgent.' Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

CNN

10 minutes ago

• CNN

Strike US assets, disrupt global trade, race for a bomb: How will Iran respond to Trump's attacks?

US President Donald Trump's decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position, with all eyes now on Tehran's next move. Speaking in Istanbul, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday his country has 'a variety of options' when deciding how to respond to the US attacks. From striking US bases in the region, to possibly closing a key waterway to global shipping, Iran is likely mulling its next moves. All carry inherent risks for the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States. Here's what to know: Direct US involvement in the conflict could see Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) activate what remains of its proxies across Iraq, Yemen and Syria, groups which have previously launched attacks on American assets in the region. While Iran's strongest ally in the region was once Lebanon's Hezbollah, that group has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) says the US maintains a presence at 19 sites in total across the region, with eight of those considered by analysts to have a permanent US presence. As of June 13, the CFR estimated some 40,000 US troops were in the Middle East. In Iraq, for example, there were 2,500 US troops as of late last year. An Iranian attack on these forces is not inconceivable. In 2020, an Iranian missile attack on a US garrison left more than 100 soldiers with traumatic brain injuries. The Iranians have said 'several times' that if the US 'joins this war and attacks their nuclear facilities, they will retaliate against US forces in the region, against US interests, and there are a lot of those,' CNN political and global affairs analyst Barak Ravid said. A resurgence of attacks from Yemen against US assets is already on the table. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels previously vowed to attack American ships in the Red Sea should the US join Israel's conflict with Iran. A prominent Houthi official said in a social media post early Sunday that 'Trump must bear the consequences' of the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. It is unclear if this marks the end of a US-Houthi ceasefire struck in May, in which Washington said it would halt its military campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the group stopping its attacks on US interests in the region. Knowing that it can't outright win a conflict against Israel and the US, experts have said that Tehran could seek to engage in a war of attrition, where it tries to exhaust its adversary's will or capacity to fight in a drawn-out and damaging conflict, which Trump at the outset of his presidency said he wanted to avoid. Iran also has the power to influence the 'entire commercial shipping in the Gulf,' Ravid said, should it decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route. There have so far been no material disruptions to the global flow of oil. But if oil exports are disrupted, or if Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market could face an existential crisis. The strait links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is a key channel for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East to the global market. About 20 million barrels of oil flow through the strait each day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. A prominent adviser to Iran's supreme leader has already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 'Following America's attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,' warned Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who has previously identified himself as a Khamenei 'representative.' Geographic leverage over global shipping gives Iran the 'capacity to cause a shock in oil markets, drive up oil prices, drive inflation, collapse Trump's economic agenda,' Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran expert and editor of the Amwaj news outlet, told CNN. Some experts say that Iran is very likely to race for a nuclear bomb now, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders come in place. 'Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years,' Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said on X. 'Particularly if the regime changes.' Parsi has said that even if the regime collapses and new military elements assume power, they are likely to be much more hawkish than the current regime and race toward a nuclear weapon as their only deterrent. Experts have previously said that Iran likely moved its stocks of enriched uranium from its key nuclear facilities amid Israeli strikes.. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity for civil purposes use uranium that is enriched to between 3.5% and 5%. When enriched to higher levels, uranium can be used to make a bomb Israel and the US accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons; Tehran insists its program is peaceful. Iran is also likely to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or the NPT, under which it has pledged not to develop a bomb. 'Iran's response is likely not just limited to military retaliation. NPT withdrawal is quite likely,' Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said on X. Iran's first response to the US' attack on its nuclear sites was to attack Israel, not US bases. Iranian missiles hit a group of buildings in Tel Aviv, where 86 people were admitted to hospital with injuries overnight and on Sunday morning, according to Israel's ministry of health. Knowing it may not be able to sustain a full-on confrontation with the US, and hoping that Trump will scale back on his involvement following Sunday's strike, Iran may merely seek to perpetuate the status quo, fighting only Israel. Trump may follow the same playbook as in the 2020 attack that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, Shabani told CNN's Becky Anderson. Trump at the time wanted to 'send a big message, get the headlines, show US resolve, but then avoid a wider war,' Shabani said. While Iran may feel it has to retaliate to save face, it may be a bloodless response, similar to what happened in 2020, when it launched a barrage of missiles at US bases in Iraq, which resulted in traumatic brain injuries to personnel but no deaths. Two military analysts have said Iran could resort to 'asymmetric' measures – such as terrorism or cyberattacks – to retaliate against the US because Israeli attacks have reduced Iran's military capabilities. 'I think the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is probably trying to figure out what capabilities it has left' as its missile stockpile dwindles, said CNN national security analyst David Sanger. 'I think (the IRGC is) going to be a little bit careful, and I suspect that's going to take us to all of the asymmetric things they can do: cyber, terrorism. I think that they're probably going to be looking for things where the US cannot just put up the traditional defenses,' he added. Similarly, retired Maj. Gen. James 'Spider' Marks, head of geopolitical strategy at Academy Securities, an investment bank, told CNN that Israel 'did a pretty good job of damaging Iran's capacity to launch its rather robust missile inventory.' But, 'albeit wounded,' the IRGC still has 'some tremendous capacity,' he said. 'It has capabilities that are already within the region and then outside the region. We are vulnerable… around the world, where the IRGC has either influence or can make things happen asymmetrically.' Iran has refused to return to the negotiating table while under Israeli attacks. On Sunday, Araghchi said he does not know how 'much room is left for diplomacy' after the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. 'They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. … We have to respond based on our legitimate right for self-defense,' Araghchi said. Parsi said that by doing so, 'the Iranians have cornered themselves.' 'Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu's war, and by that show his ability and willingness to use American leverage against Netanyahu,' Parsi wrote. 'But the flip side is that Tehran has given Israel a veto on US-Iran diplomacy – by simply continuing the war, Israel is enabled to block talks between the US and Iran.' Iranian and European officials met Friday in Geneva for talks, which an Iranian source said started out tense but became 'much more positive.' Speaking Sunday, Araghchi said the US had decided to 'blow up' diplomacy. 'Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3 (group of European ministers)/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy,' Araghchi said on X. Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, told CNN's Christiane Amanpour that the 'Iranians were reluctant to negotiate with a gun to their head, and that gun has already been triggered. 'The more likely situation is that the talks are over for now.' CNN's Eve Brennan, Brad Lendon and Mostafa Salem contributed reporting.

New York Times

13 minutes ago

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The Consequences of U.S. Strikes in Iran

To the Editor: Re 'U.S. Attacks Iran's Nuclear Sites' (front page, June 22): Whether President Trump's bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities has postponed one danger or not, it has surely destroyed the effort to limit nuclear proliferation. The damage is incalculable. The physicists Lise Meitner and Otto Frisch published their paper on nuclear fission energy in 1939. My physicist father delivered a special order of radiation-absorbing glass from Corning Glass to the Manhattan Project's secret site in Oak Ridge, Tenn., during World War II. He said its purpose was obvious. After the war, America and others worked persistently to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. The rush to control nuclear material after the Soviet Union's breakup worked. An intense effort by many, including brave Iranian diplomats, succeeded with the 2015 agreement to limit Iran's nuclear activities. It was not enough for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Saturday began a new era. Since World War II we have striven to limit proliferation by voluntary cooperation. Now President Trump has put America at war with all nuclear-hopeful nations. Making nonproliferation a matter of force, instead of persuasion and enticement, will fail disastrously. Phil HockerAlexandria, Va. To the Editor: By striking Iran's nuclear sites, the United States has done what was both necessary and inevitable. This was never just Israel's war. For 45 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has targeted the United States — killing American troops in Beirut, arming insurgents in Iraq, launching cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure and plotting assassinations on American soil. The war didn't begin with Israel's recent missile strike. It began decades ago with Iran's campaign against the West. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.