In climate of conflicts, a corridor of necessity
With the airspace closed over Iran and denied over Pakistan, the Air India flight from Frankfurt to Delhi last weekend flew southeast over Athens, crossed the Mediterranean to Cairo, turned east to fly across the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula to Oman and then over the sea to enter India in the Kutch region. Nearly 12,000 metres above sea level, it traced the path of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). I was returning from the inaugural edition of the Raisina Mediterranean Dialogue, where every session turned into a discussion on IMEC. The flight was evidence of both its existence and necessity.
Few positive ideas have energised the world in recent times as much as IMEC after it was unveiled in September 2023 in Delhi at the G20 Summit of the Indian presidency. There have been competing claims on its provenance, with western literature often describing it as a US-led initiative. However, it was initially conceived as a post-Covid project for a strategic India-Middle East corridor by India's national security advisor. It was later extended to Israel's Mediterranean port of Haifa and onwards to Europe to serve multiple Indian geopolitical and economic goals.
In IMEC, the Gulf seeks to reprise its historical role in trade, diversify its economy and markets and pursue its geopolitical ambitions. The US entered the project, drawn by regional competition with China and hope of normalising Arab-Israel relations; however, conditions and US relevance may have changed now. Geopolitical, economic, energy, and digital connectivity interests attracted Europe, seeking to rebalance relations amidst structural external shocks. Following France, Italy, Germany and the EU became members. The raging and expanding conflicts in the Middle East since IMEC's launch have raised grave doubts about the initiative. To the contrary, the developments only reinforce the need for resilient corridors that connect India and Europe and, more broadly, the Indo-Pacific with the Euro-Atlantic.
IMEC is often imagined as a mega infrastructure project along a single multimodal route entailing hundreds of billion dollars in investments with its attendant challenges of financing, risk mitigation and timelines. However, almost 90% of the infrastructure already exists — sea connectivity between India and the Gulf; the growing rail network across the Gulf; and world-class ports that dot the Mediterranean coasts. The rail link between Saudi Arabia and Haifa remains to be built. But, if that gap remains too politically difficult to bridge at the moment, there are alternatives through Egypt, Lebanon and, if it stabilises, through Syria.
In any case, just as redundancies are built into strategic telecommunication networks, shippers should have the flexibility to switch between alternative nodes for secure, quick and competitive logistics. It is, therefore, important to think of IMEC as a network rather than a single route. The Suez, too, will continue to remain the key shipping route, especially for bulk cargo. IMEC will, however, reduce the relevance of the circuitous route around the African continent.
Multiple submarine cables carrying data already link India to Europe. The data capacity is set to grow with Blue-Raman. In Marseille, emerging as a major submarine cable junction, India accounts for a significant share of the capacity of data centres. The pipelines and submarine cables transmitting clean hydrogen and electricity from the Gulf in either direction may seem overly ambitious. But such submarine projects already exist in the world. New ones are already gaining attention and financing. The 2,000-km EastMed-Poseidon gas pipeline to transport Israeli/Cypriot gas to Greece, the Euro-Asia connector linking their electricity grid or the hydrogen pipeline from Tunisia-Algeria to Italy and onwards are examples of new projects. The IMEC should get higher priority under the European Union's Global Gateway.
What is needed most is connecting the dots for coordinated development of the infrastructure being established nationally or by a group of countries along the corridor; an agreement between governments on the seamless and smooth transit of goods on a multimodal, multi-country network; harmonisation of standards and governance; enabling framework for accelerating trade, such as the conclusion of the EU-India free trade agreement; industrial acceleration in India; security cooperation; and, coordinating mechanisms involving participating governments and the private sector. Many companies operate across the corridor.
IMEC has generated strong interest across Europe and triggered a deeper conversation on Mediterranean connectivity and integration. While ports in Greece, Croatia, Italy and France are vying to be the main terminal points, each would serve specific destinations in Europe. North African ports such as Alexandria and Port Said in Egypt and Tangiers in Morocco wish to be connected. A more integrated Mediterranean network would increase IMEC's value. Indeed, the M in IMEC could well stand for MENA (Middle East-North Africa). Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Cyprus and Croatia this week as also his earlier visits to Egypt, Greece, Italy and France, and possibly to Morocco in the near future, indicate an integrated vision of the Mediterranean basin — from the northern-most palm grove to the northern-most olive grove — for its own potential but also as a gateway to the vast African and European continents and beyond.
The seas are one. Trouble in any maritime domain has global impact. The Mediterranean connects the East and the West. Not just the Middle East, the calm azure waters of the Mediterranean also carry challenges. Politics of immigration and security threatens Europe's links with North Africa. There are regional rivalries involving Turkey, Greece and Cyprus and the unstable eastern seaboard of the Mediterranean from Gaza to Syria. The spillover of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the growing Chinese economic and naval presence bring strategic competition to the region. A broader regional engagement by India and closer coordination among Mediterranean countries will help advance IMEC. The MENA region has multiple sources and layers of competition and conflict that are not easy to resolve. As Europe, India and the region seek deeper partnership, IMEC is a necessity. It is not one grand greenfield infrastructure project with an inauguration day. It is an evolving project that must be guided by realistic goals and concomitant design. Beyond political commitment and coordination, involvement of companies, including infrastructure, logistics, shipping, energy and digital, with operational experience along the route in shaping IMEC is vital. That is essential for IMEC to succeed and not go the way of several other corridors conceived with great enthusiasm.
Jawed Ashraf is a retired Indian ambassador. The views expressed are personal.
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