logo

Gold Edges Higher as Global Trade War Prospects Grow

2349 GMT — Gold edges higher in the early Asian session. EU and Canada unveiled retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. on Wednesday, further increasing prospects of a global trade war after the U.S. imposed levies on global steel and aluminum imports. Such prospects could enhance the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal. There's uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy amid talk of a recession, XS.com's Samer Hasn says in an email. Market turmoil has also deepened due to President Trump's repeated 'start-and-stop' over tariffs, Hasn adds. Spot gold is 0.1% higher at $2,937.82/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

‘Uncertain' 2025, M&A Deadlock Freeze $1 Trillion in PE Assets
‘Uncertain' 2025, M&A Deadlock Freeze $1 Trillion in PE Assets

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

‘Uncertain' 2025, M&A Deadlock Freeze $1 Trillion in PE Assets

The word of the year on Wall Street, without a doubt, has been uncertainty. It's the catch-all to describe everything from the fog of trade to nonstop geopolitical tensions. The inherent uncertainty of uncertainty also makes it hard to put a price tag on its impact, but last week, accounting firm PwC offered up a number: $1 trillion. That's the value of unsold assets that would have been returned to investors if it weren't for private equity groups holding on to them while remaining in an uncertainty-driven holding pattern. READ ALSO: Amazon's Driverless Cab Company Zoox Revs Up 'Toaster Taxis' and Cybersecurity Giant Palo Alto Networks Caught Between Opportunity and Maturity With New Year's fireworks in January, Wall Street was full of hope for an M&A boom driven by an incoming Trump administration with deregulation at the heart of its agenda — and lighter scrutiny from regulators when rules come into play. You know the deal: President Trump has focused on other priorities to start his second term, and the resulting market limbo has put deals on hold. According to PwC analysts, plans for initial public offerings (IPOs) of companies worth a combined $120 billion were shelved in the first three weeks of April. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold off on rate cuts to wait for the potential impacts of tariffs has had a resulting domino effect: a lack of cheap debt, as higher interest rates make debt more expensive. PwC noted that 30% of the $3 trillion that private equity firms have invested in roughly 30,000 companies has been held for more than five years, an unusually long period compared with the typical timetable for PE shops to turn a profit on an investment. This, they surmised, is in part because they have been less able to finance growing companies without cheap debt. 'In a typical M&A cycle, $1 trillion would have already been put back into the market,' Josh Smigel, a PwC partner, said on a media call. The data, meanwhile, looks like a set of spinning wheels: Deal volume and value have been more or less flat year-over-year, PwC said, with roughly 4,500 deals worth a total of $567 billion through May. In response to PwC's May Pulse Survey, 30% of respondents said they have paused or revisited deals because of tariff concerns, which would delay investor returns. 'While nearly half (48%) of the business executives surveyed expect today's uncertainty to last less than a year, many anticipate it could extend through the next presidential election,' reads the report. Change Your Mind? With the possibility that the worst of the tariff warring is over, May data provides a more optimistic scenario. The number of deals worth more than $100 million climbed 6.1% from April, according to an EY-Parthenon analysis of Dealogic data, though overall deal volume fell 6.2% from May 2024. This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive delivering razor sharp analysis and perspective on all things finance, economics, and markets, subscribe to our free The Daily Upside newsletter. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise, oil falls as markets reverse course after US strikes on Iran
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise, oil falls as markets reverse course after US strikes on Iran

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise, oil falls as markets reverse course after US strikes on Iran

US stock futures turned higher on Monday, with oil prices paring gains as markets grew cautiously optimistic over Iran's next move after the US entered the Middle East conflict at the weekend. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) climbed 0.3%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) rose roughly 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) edged up 0.1%. Stocks are reversing course after President Trump's decision to join Israel's attacks on Iran threw a fresh bout of uncertainty into the market. Futures on the major US gauges initially retreated, while oil jumped over 4% as investors rushed to grapple with the aftereffects of the weekend strikes. "Markets appear to be treating the US strikes on Iran as a contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war. The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply or trade," Saxo strategist Charu Chanana told Reuters. Trump said late Saturday that the US had struck Iran's three main nuclear enrichment facilities, claiming the sites had been "totally obliterated" — a claim that has since been questioned. He threatened Iran with more attacks if the country did not quickly seek peace talks. The focus now is on Iran's next step — both militarily and diplomatically. Its foreign minister on Sunday said it reserves "all options," while its parliament has reportedly voted to block the Strait of Hormuz — though Iran's leaders have yet to make a final decision. The spike in crude prices is now unwinding as jitters about disruption to energy supplies ease. Experts are skeptical that Iran will follow through on its threat to close the waterway, through which around one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Brent crude (BZ=F) futures pulled back on Monday, trading at near $77 a barrel after jumping over $80 after the US strikes. US benchmark WTI crude futures (CL=F) also lost hold of gains, slipping to below $74 a barrel. Wall Street is watching oil prices closely, given a shock could have ramifications for the US economy, potentially triggering higher inflation that could spur the Federal Reserve to delay interest-rate cuts. Elsewhere in markets, bitcoin (BTC-USD) retreated, last under the $100,000 level, and gold (GC=F) ticked lower amid a softening in the haven demand that has driven this year's sharp rally. Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oils prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oils prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Iran's Promise of Payback Keeps World Powers, Markets on Edge
Iran's Promise of Payback Keeps World Powers, Markets on Edge

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Iran's Promise of Payback Keeps World Powers, Markets on Edge

(Bloomberg) -- Iran vowed retaliation and kept up attacks on Israel following the US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports The Islamic Republic fired another missile against Israel on Monday, while Israeli forces kept up strikes on Iranian military sites and airports. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a news conference to continue Israel's military campaign in Iran as well as in the Gaza Strip. Tehran has yet to announce whether or how it might strike American targets in the Middle East. President Donald Trump's decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs and cruise missiles on the country's three main nuclear sites on Sunday pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and boosted risks in a global economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade wars. Oil rose by nearly 6% when markets opened in Asia before paring most of those gains, with Brent trading at $77.65 per barrel as of 8:37 a.m. in London. US stock futures initially declined as investors weighed retaliation scenarios and the risks to global energy supplies. 'An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,' said Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud. The extensive US operation — which targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles from a submarine and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, the first time the large bunker busters were used in combat. It also marked the US entry into the war that began on June 13 when Israel unleashed attacks on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and killed senior commanders and atomic scientists. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes had a 'limited' objective, focused on destroying Iran's atomic program. At the United Nations on Sunday, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that the 'timing, nature and scale' of Tehran's response 'will be decided by its armed forces.' The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which answers to the Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it would continue targeting Israel and cited American bases in the region as a vulnerability for the US, without openly threatening them. Trump said he would respond with 'far greater' force to any Iranian retaliation on US assets. He also floated the possibility of regime change in Iran, although US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have said it's not their objective. Israeli officials have said while toppling Iranian government isn't a war objective, their attacks could undermine the government to the extent that that happens. Fordow Damage Trump said the three nuclear sites US bombers hit were 'totally obliterated.' Still, others were more cautious, especially in the case of the enrichment site at Fordow that's deep underground. Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were among the US officials who said the extent of the damage wasn't yet clear. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which officially has the task of monitoring Iran's program, told the UN Security Council on Sunday that no one yet knows the condition of Fordow, or the location of Iran's more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Hormuz Traffic A key area of focus for global markets fretting about Iran's possible venues for retaliation is the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for the world's oil and gas. Iran's parliament called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV on Sunday. But such a move — unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's nearly five-decade history — could not proceed though without the approval of Khamenei, the supreme leader. His office controls decisions of this magnitude, typically in coordination typically with the Supreme National Security Council. Naval forces in the region warned that ships, especially US-linked ones, could be at heightened risk. Greece, home to more oil-tanker capacity than any other nation, cautioned its vessels owners to think again if they're considering entering the Persian Gulf. Two supertankers both capable of hauling about 2 million barrels of crude U-turned in the strait on Sunday. They entered the waterway and then abruptly changed course. One factor that may complicate Iran's decision on how to retaliate is that it is largely isolated on the world stage. Its top allies — Russia and China — are offering only rhetorical support, while the militia groups Tehran has armed and funded for years are refusing or unable to enter the fight. Russian officials have made it clear that a cooperation treaty the two countries signed in January doesn't include mutual-defense obligations. And China, which gets many of its oil and liquefied natural gas imports from the Gulf, including Iran, would be loath to see energy prices soar because of a closure of or attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store