Iran's Promise of Payback Keeps World Powers, Markets on Edge
(Bloomberg) -- Iran vowed retaliation and kept up attacks on Israel following the US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets.
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The Islamic Republic fired another missile against Israel on Monday, while Israeli forces kept up strikes on Iranian military sites and airports.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a news conference to continue Israel's military campaign in Iran as well as in the Gaza Strip.
Tehran has yet to announce whether or how it might strike American targets in the Middle East. President Donald Trump's decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs and cruise missiles on the country's three main nuclear sites on Sunday pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and boosted risks in a global economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade wars.
Oil rose by nearly 6% when markets opened in Asia before paring most of those gains, with Brent trading at $77.65 per barrel as of 8:37 a.m. in London. US stock futures initially declined as investors weighed retaliation scenarios and the risks to global energy supplies.
'An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,' said Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud.
The extensive US operation — which targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles from a submarine and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, the first time the large bunker busters were used in combat.
It also marked the US entry into the war that began on June 13 when Israel unleashed attacks on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and killed senior commanders and atomic scientists. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes had a 'limited' objective, focused on destroying Iran's atomic program.
At the United Nations on Sunday, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that the 'timing, nature and scale' of Tehran's response 'will be decided by its armed forces.'
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which answers to the Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it would continue targeting Israel and cited American bases in the region as a vulnerability for the US, without openly threatening them.
Trump said he would respond with 'far greater' force to any Iranian retaliation on US assets. He also floated the possibility of regime change in Iran, although US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have said it's not their objective.
Israeli officials have said while toppling Iranian government isn't a war objective, their attacks could undermine the government to the extent that that happens.
Fordow Damage
Trump said the three nuclear sites US bombers hit were 'totally obliterated.' Still, others were more cautious, especially in the case of the enrichment site at Fordow that's deep underground. Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were among the US officials who said the extent of the damage wasn't yet clear.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which officially has the task of monitoring Iran's program, told the UN Security Council on Sunday that no one yet knows the condition of Fordow, or the location of Iran's more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.
Hormuz Traffic
A key area of focus for global markets fretting about Iran's possible venues for retaliation is the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for the world's oil and gas.
Iran's parliament called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV on Sunday. But such a move — unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's nearly five-decade history — could not proceed though without the approval of Khamenei, the supreme leader. His office controls decisions of this magnitude, typically in coordination typically with the Supreme National Security Council.
Naval forces in the region warned that ships, especially US-linked ones, could be at heightened risk. Greece, home to more oil-tanker capacity than any other nation, cautioned its vessels owners to think again if they're considering entering the Persian Gulf.
Two supertankers both capable of hauling about 2 million barrels of crude U-turned in the strait on Sunday. They entered the waterway and then abruptly changed course.
One factor that may complicate Iran's decision on how to retaliate is that it is largely isolated on the world stage. Its top allies — Russia and China — are offering only rhetorical support, while the militia groups Tehran has armed and funded for years are refusing or unable to enter the fight.
Russian officials have made it clear that a cooperation treaty the two countries signed in January doesn't include mutual-defense obligations. And China, which gets many of its oil and liquefied natural gas imports from the Gulf, including Iran, would be loath to see energy prices soar because of a closure of or attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
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