Would you hail a 'robotaxi'? Musk bets cabs will give Tesla a lift after boycotts and sales plunge
Elon Musk promised in 2019 that driverless Tesla 'robotaxis' would be on the road 'next year,' but it didn't happen. A year later, he promised to deliver them the next year, but that didn't happen either.
Despite the empty pledges the promises kept coming. Last year in January, Musk said, 'Next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis.'
Would you settle for 10 or 12?
Musk appears to be on the verge of making his robotaxi vision a reality with a test run of a small squad of self-driving cabs in Austin, Texas, starting Sunday. Reaching a million may take a year or more, however, although the billionaire should be able to expand the service this year if the Austin demo is a success.
The stakes couldn't be higher, nor the challenges.
While Musk was making those 'next year' promises, rival Waymo was busy deploying driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities by using a different technology that allowed it to get to market faster. It just completed its 10 millionth paid ride.
Boycotts related to Musk's politics have tanked Tesla's sales. Rival electric vehicle makers with newly competitive models have stolen market share. And investors are on edge after a $150 billion stock wipeout when Musk picked a social media fight with a U.S. president overseeing federal car regulators who could make the robotaxi rollout much more difficult. The stock has recovered somewhat after Musk said he regretted some of his remarks.
Tesla shareholders have stood by Musk over the years because he's defied the odds by building a successful standalone electric vehicle company — self-driving car promises aside — and making them a lot of money in the process. A decade ago, Tesla shares traded for around $18. The shares closed Friday at $322.
Musk says the Austin test will begin modestly enough, with just 10 or 12 vehicles picking up passengers in a limited area. But then it will quickly ramp up and spread to other cities, eventually reaching hundreds of thousands if not a million vehicles next year.
Some Musk watchers on Wall Street are skeptical.
'How quickly can he expand the fleet?' asks Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA. 'We're talking maybe a dozen vehicles initially. It's very small."
Morningstar 's Seth Goldstein says Musk is being classic Musk: Promising too much, too quickly.
'When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don't think that will happen until 2028," he says. 'Testing is going to take a while.'
Musk's tendency to push up the stock high with a bit of hyperbole is well known among investors.
In 2018, he told Tesla stockholders he had 'funding secured' to buy all their shares at a massive premium and take the company private. But he not only lacked a written commitment from financiers, according to federal stock regulators who fined him, he hadn't discussed the loan amount or other details with them.
More recently, Musk told CNBC in May that Tesla was experiencing a 'major rebound' in demand. A week later an auto trade group in Europe announced sales had plunged by half.
Musk has come under fire for allegedly exaggerating the ability of the system used for its cars to drive themselves, starting with the name. Full Self-Driving is a misnomer. The system still requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road because they may need to intervene and take control at any moment.
Federal highway safety regulators opened an investigation into FSD last year after several accidents, and the Department of Justice has conducted its own probe, though the status of that is not known. Tesla has also faced lawsuits over the feature, some resulting in settlements, other dismissed. In one case, a judge ruled against the plaintiffs but only because they hadn't proved Musk 'knowingly' made false statements.
Musk says the robotaxis will be running on an improved version of Full Self-Driving and the cabs will be safe.
He also says the service will be able to expand rapidly around the country. His secret weapon: Millions of Tesla owners now on the roads. He says an over-the-air software update will soon allow them to turn their cars into driverless cabs and start a side business while stuck at the office for eight hours or on vacation for a week.
'Instead of having your car sit in the parking lot, your car could be earning money,' Musk said earlier this year, calling it an Airbnb model for cars. 'You will be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet.'
Musk says Tesla also can move fast to deploy taxis now because of his decision to rely only on cameras for the cars to navigate, unlike Waymo, which has gone a more expensive route by supplementing its cameras with lasers and radar.
'Tesla will have, I don't know,' Musk mused in an conference call with investors, '99% market share or something ridiculous.' Given Waymo's head start and potential competition from Amazon and others, dominating the driverless market to that extent could be a reach.
But Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst and big Musk fan, says this time Musk may actually pull it off because of Tesla's ability to scale up quickly. And even skeptics like Morningstar's Goldstein acknowledge that Musk occasionally does gets things right, and spectacularly so.
He upended the car industry by getting people to buy expensive electric vehicles, brought his Starlink satellite internet service to rural areas and, more recently, performed a gee-whiz trick of landing an unmanned SpaceX rocket on a platform back on earth.
'Maybe his timelines aren't realistic," Goldstein says, 'but he can develop futuristic technology products.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
2 hours ago
- The Guardian
Oil prices expected to rise after US attack on Iran
Oil prices are expected to rise as the trading week starts, after the US attack on Iran stoked fears of an escalating regional conflict that could shut down the vital strait of Hormuz shipping route. A barrel of Brent crude was selling for about $77 on Friday, having risen by more than 10% since mid-June, when Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites prompted missile strikes from Tehran against Tel Aviv. President Donald Trump's decision to follow Israel in launching an attack on Iran over the weekend could drive prices up by a further $5 when markets open, according to forecasts from oil market analysts. Trading for the week begins at 11pm UK time on Sunday. 'An oil price jump is expected,' said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at the energy intelligence firm Rystad and a former official at Opec, the group of major oil-producing nations. 'In an extreme scenario where Iran responds with direct strikes or targets regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge sharply. 'Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.' Brent crude, the traditional benchmark global oil price, could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said in a note. Wall Street bank JP Morgan has previously forecast that the oil price could rise as high as $130 in the event that a sustained Middle East conflict closes the strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have previously threatened to block the Strait, the conduit for a fifth of global oil consumption, if Tehran's interests are threatened. Any such retaliation could have huge knock-on effects for the global economy, with the resulting oil price shock risking a period of high inflation, as motorists pay more for petrol and the cost of transporting goods soars. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Brent crude settled at $77.01 a barrel on Friday, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark was at $73.84. Some analysts played down the risk of long-term disruption to shipping routes, pointing out that most of Iran's oil exports to China pass through the strait of Hormuz. If oil prices were to rise to $130, that would exceed levels reached in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The all-time high for Brent crude is $147.50, set in July 2008 just before the global financial crisis sent prices plunging.
Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
The tax-friendly state in America where ultra-wealthy flock to
Wyoming is rapidly establishing itself as a top destination for ultra-wealthy individuals and businesses, drawn by its tax advantages and high-end real estate market. As one of nine US states with no state income tax , Wyoming offers significant financial incentives for affluent residents. Additionally, the state's Dynasty Trust laws allow families to transfer wealth across generations while avoiding estate, inheritance and state income taxes - further solidifying its status as a tax shelter. The state's appeal is amplified by its business-friendly environment and low property taxes, attracting both individuals and companies seeking to minimize their tax burdens. 'Wyoming is the most tax-friendly state,' Latham Jenkins, a real estate agent with Live Water Jackson Hole told . 'Retirement benefits are not taxed at the state level, and it's one of the most business-friendly states in the nation.' Wyoming's luxury real estate market is also thriving. Although the state's overall housing inventory is limited, its high-end listings stand out. Approximately three percent of active listings in Wyoming are priced over $5 million - ranking significantly higher than neighboring states such as Idaho at 1.3 percent and Montana at 1.9 percent. The Teton County area - home to Jackson Hole, a world-class skiing destination - dominates the high-priced market, with 57 of the 69 listings above $5 million, reported. Aside from its proximity to the top-rated Jackson Hole Mountain resort, the region's appeal to the ultra-wealthy is driven by its exclusivity, stunning landscapes, and celebrity presence, with A-listers like Harrison Ford, Sandra Bullock, and Kanye West reportedly owning property in the area. The median listing price in Teton County sits at $2.95 million, while the state's median is $495,000. The area's limited land availability, with 97 percent of Teton County federally protected, further drives up demand, making it an attractive option for wealthy buyers. Despite strong demand, luxury homes in Wyoming tend to stay on the market longer than in other states. Properties priced at $5 million or more have a median listing period of 187 days, compared to 81 days in Idaho and 114 days in Montana, according to the real estate outlet. The state's extended timeline reflects a market where sellers, often without mortgages, are less inclined to lower prices, leading to a more patient and strategic selling process. Margi Barrie, associate broker with Prugh Real Estate, notes that sellers are in no rush. 'People are more bullish in their prices, and more confident. A lot of people aren't leveraged on their property so that they can sell them, or not,' she explained to In Teton County, 33.1 percent of listings were priced above $5 million as of May, suggesting a growing influx of high-net-worth individuals. However, the lack of price reductions indicates that many sellers are not eager to exit the market quickly. The northwestern state's combination of tax advantages, business-friendly policies, and a high-demand luxury real estate market make it an increasingly attractive destination for the ultra-wealthy. Its limited land availability and unique legal structures further enhance its appeal, positioning Wyoming as a key player in the ultra-high-net-worth market.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Bitcoin falls 4% to $99,237
June 22 (Reuters) - Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, was down by 4.13% at $99,237 at 10:52 a.m. ET (1452 GMT) on Sunday. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, was down by around 8.52% at $2,199.
