NBA Finals Game 7 keys to victory: It all starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The 2024-25 NBA season – through the promise of a fresh start in October to the dog days of late January to the late-season push for the postseason in late March, early April to the two-month playoffs schedule to determine a champion – comes down to one more game.
Game 7 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals on Sunday, June 22 (8 p.m. ET, ABC). Forty-eight minutes – possibly more – between two talented, deep, well-coached and exhausted teams.
"One game for everything you ever dreamed of," Thunder star and this season's MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said. "If you win it, you get everything. If you lose it, you get nothing. It's that simple."
Simple in theory. Difficult in practice.
Because winning a championship isn't easy. It shouldn't be.
One more game. The 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history. Pacers-Thunder.
Indiana has never won an NBA title; since relocating to Oklahoma City from Seattle in 2008, the Thunder have never won a title.
"Just really focused on Game 7 and trying to take it just a moment at a time," Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton said. "Really enjoying what we're doing. Understanding this is going to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, game most of us ever play in in our lives, and for our organization from a historical standpoint, as well. That's something that you don't take for granted and you enjoy as a competitor."
Here's how each team can win Game 7:
How Thunder can win NBA Finals Game 7
The MVP needs to play like the MVP, and he can't have more turnovers than made shots as he did in Indiana's Game 6 victory. Making mid-range shots, getting to the rim and free throw line, knocking down the occasional 3-pointers and making sure his teammates are involved. The Thunder are at their best when Gilgeous-Alexander scores around 30 points, five assists, two steals and attempts 10 free throws and has no more than three turnovers.
In Indiana's Game 3 victory, the Thunder committed 19 turnovers, and in Indiana's Game 6 victory, the Thunder turned the ball over 21 times. It's one thing if shots are falling, it's another to have that many possessions with a field goal attempt.
The Thunder don't need 40 points from Williams like they got from him in Game 5. However, an efficient Jalen Williams who is attacking the basket off the dribble and in transition and scoring 20-plus points while rebounding and collecting assists gives the Thunder a much better chance of winning.
It's clear Holmgren needs to be involved offensively. He had just six points in the Game 1 loss and four points in the Game 6 loss and was 4-for-18 from the field in those two games. He's averaging 12.7 points and 10.7 rebounds in Finals victories and 10 points and 7.3 rebounds in Finals losses.
The Thunder have used depth to their advantage all season. Getting 3s from Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins is important. Caruso has scored just two points in the past two games and was scoreless in Game 6. Wallace, Caruso and Wiggins were 1-for-6 on 3s in Game 6 and 7-for-14 in Game 5 and 14-for-26 in Game 2.
The Thunder are not immune to home losses – they lost Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals to Denver and Game 1 of the NBA Finals to Indiana at home. However, they were 35-6 at home during the regular season and 10-2 during the playoffs. Oklahoma City provides one of the best home crowds in the league, and the Thunder can use that energy. LeBron James often said home-court advantage doesn't mean anything until a Game 7.
How the Pacers can win Game 7
Haliburton has a strained calf, and if this were the regular season and even earlier in the playoffs, he might not be playing. But in Game 6 and Game 7 of the Finals, he is. He only played 23 minutes in the Pacers' Game 6 blowout victory and had 14 points, five assists and two steals. That kind of per-minute production should keep the Pacers in the game with a chance to win.
The Pacers' improved defense is a major reason they are in this position. They like to pressure the basketball, sometimes full court, and that kind of intensity for four quarters wears down an opponent. Indiana wants to force turnovers, limit Oklahoma City's offensive opportunities and keep Gilgeous-Alexander from dominating with his scoring. In Game 6, the Pacers held the Thunder to 91 points, which is the Thunder's lowest-scoring game of the playoffs and just the second time they didn't reach 100 this postseason.
The Pacers have been the best 3-point shooting team percentage-wise in the playoffs (.390) and have made 36.4% against the Thunder in the Finals. In their three Finals victories, they have outscored the Thunder 126-87 on 3-pointers. Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, Obi Toppin and Haliburton need to combine for about 15 3-pointers. The Pacers average 14 made 3s in their Finals victories and 12 in their Finals losses.
When T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and Toppin are providing quality minutes, the Pacers are tough to beat. McConnell's bulldog mentality is an important part of Indiana's success.
Siakam is the only Pacers player with championship experience (Toronto Raptors, 2019), and he has been a fantastic two-player in this series. If the Pacers win the title, he just might be Finals MVP. He's averaging 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks and shooting 46.4% from the field and 82.5% on free throws.
Carlisle has extracted the maximum from this roster. Can he yield another victory? He has a great coaching staff, and Carlisle and his assistants have assembled outstanding game plans for this series. He has found ways to get points against Oklahoma City's top-rated defense and slow down the Thunder's No. 3 offense. It's no secret he's one of the league's best coaches over the past two decades, and he has been at the top of his game during the past two seasons with Indiana.
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