India–Pakistan nuclear conflict won't just be a border issue: 2019 'Nostradamus' study warns it could starve the world

In 2019, researchers from the University of Colorado and Rutgers University issued a stark warning: a war between India and Pakistan was possible by 2025, and it could go nuclear. Published in Science Advances, the study combined insights from major institutions including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Federation of American Scientists, and the Natural Resources Defense Council. Now, in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, their prediction feels chillingly prescient.
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The study aimed not to speculate, but to urge global action. It stressed the need for international agreements like the 2017
UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
to prevent such catastrophes. Using computer simulations, the researchers showed just how quickly a regional conflict could spiral into a global disaster.
Nuclear war projections: Tens of millions dead, globally affected
According to the study, if India were to use 100 nuclear strategic weapons and Pakistan 150, the immediate death toll could reach 100 million. Another 50 to 125 million might die in the aftermath—through radiation exposure, injuries, famine, and environmental collapse.
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The co-author of the report, Alan Robock of Rutgers University's Department of Environmental Sciences, made the global stakes clear: 'A war like that would threaten not just the areas where bombs would be dropped but the whole world.'
Black carbon, lost sunlight, and global famine
But it doesn't end with blasts. The research also warned of massive environmental consequences. The detonation of nuclear weapons would likely ignite firestorms, releasing 16 to 36 million tonnes of black carbon into the upper atmosphere. This soot would block sunlight, causing a drop in global temperatures by up to 5°C. Sunlight levels could fall by 35%, and precipitation by 30%.
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The knock-on effects? Crops would fail. Ocean ecosystems would suffer. Global food supplies would collapse. The study predicted that plant growth could decrease by up to 30%, while ocean productivity might drop by 15%. These disruptions would linger for a decade, if not longer, as the soot would remain suspended in the upper atmosphere.
2025 Nuclear arsenal estimates raise alarm
The researchers also projected the possible growth of both nations' nuclear arsenals by 2025. India's stockpile was estimated to reach 400 to 500 warheads, each capable of destruction similar to the Hiroshima bomb of 1945, which had a yield of 15 kilotonnes. Pakistan's nuclear stockpile was also expected to grow significantly.
The fact that both countries are nuclear-armed and within close range of one another only amplifies the risk. Experts have long viewed South Asia as one of the most volatile nuclear flashpoints on the planet.
The study didn't just raise alarms—it called for action. It highlighted the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as a vital global instrument. Despite not being signed by nuclear powers like India or Pakistan, the treaty stands as a symbolic and political tool to stigmatise and eventually eliminate nuclear weapons.
As tensions between the two neighbours rise again in 2025, the voices of those researchers from 2019 echo louder. Their message was clear then, and even more urgent now: a nuclear war in South Asia would not stay in South Asia. It would touch every life on this planet.

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