Did the US strikes succeed, and how will Iran respond?

The US said the strikes 'devastated' Iran's nuclear programme, but some are skeptical of this.
This satellite picture taken on June 22, 2025, shows a close-up view of craters after US strikes on Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the city of Qom. Picture: Satellite image 2025 Maxar Technologies / AFP
The United States' strikes on Sunday on Iranian nuclear sites raised two major questions: how effective were they, and what will Iran do next?
US President Donald Trump said the air raids 'totally obliterated' the main nuclear sites, calling them a 'spectacular military success'.
So far, Tehran has given little away about its response, although Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the United States had 'crossed a very big red line'.
ALSO READ: US joins Israel-Iran conflict with overnight bombing campaign
AFP looks at the impact of the attacks and the possible next steps.
What was the effect of the strikes?
The United States targeted Iran's three main nuclear sites including Fordo, a uranium enrichment facility buried 90 metres underground.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes 'devastated the Iranian nuclear programme'.
The extent of the damage has not been confirmed, but there is speculation nuclear material had already been moved away.
Heloise Fayet, a nuclear expert at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales, said satellite images showing activity around Fordo 'suggest enriched uranium stock may therefore have been transferred to sites not monitored by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)'.
'We previously had knowledge, albeit imperfect, of the programme thanks to the agency's inspections; now no inspections are possible,' she told AFP.
'As for Iran's technical expertise, it cannot be destroyed, knowing that thousands of people have participated in Iran's nuclear programme.'
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, called the US action a 'high-risk operation that delivers unpredictable outcomes', given the facility was deep underground.
'Trump has been using OSINT (open-source intelligence) accounts to say Fordo is gone while the Iranians claim there is only surface-level destruction.'
ALSO READ: Iran threatens 'more devastating' response to Israel's attacks
Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, said destroying Fordo 'won't necessarily end Iran's nuclear programme.
'Tehran has produced hundreds of advanced centrifuges in the past few years that are stored in unknown locations,' he said.
What is Iran's next move?
According to Krieg, Iran will seek a 'calibrated response – loud enough to resonate, but measured enough to contain'.
Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitics and security analyst, said its options included attacking US assets, closing the Strait of Hormuz – a vital conduit for the world oil trade – or even attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, which hosts several US military bases.
'None of those are good options that achieve anything – this is mostly about saving face,' he posted on X.
'The risks, on the other hand, are great.'
However, Horowitz said there were other ways to respond, including a limited retaliation against the US before returning to strikes against Israel and finally negotiating a settlement.
The Iranian government now realises its very existence is at stake, said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at the Chatham House think-tank, casting it back to the days of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
'It's survival mode,' he said, predicting 'more violence' in the short term with the prospect of a 'managed de-escalation' and eventual negotiations.
ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy
Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Iran might allow Trump a 'symbolic win' and retaliate against Israeli targets instead.
'This keeps Washington out of the war while intensifying pressure on Tel Aviv. The risk of drawing the US further in would now rest on Trump's next move,' he posted on X.
'If Trump continues to strike Iran without new provocation, it looks more like going to war on Israel's behalf. That's politically costly, given domestic opposition to war with Iran.'
Meanwhile, Iran could deny knowledge of what happened to its enriched uranium, avoiding IAEA inspections, and later leave the Nuclear Non-Profiferation Treaty.
'Trump may have scored a tactical win, but if Iran plays this smart, they hand him a political grenade,' Azizi wrote.
'All while shifting the nuclear game into murkier, more dangerous territory.'

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IOL News

an hour ago

• IOL News

US says strikes 'devastated' Iran's nuclear program

Smoke rises above buildings in Tehran following an Israeli strike Image: AFP Unprecedented US strikes have wrecked Iran's nuclear program, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Sunday, though other officials cautioned the extent of damage at the three sites was unclear. Iran's leaders struck a defiant tone and vowed to respond, while an advisor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed their stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. International concern intensified over the surprise attacks deepening conflict in the Middle East after Israel launched its bombing campaign against Iran earlier this month. President Donald Trump said he wanted peace and urged Iran to end the conflict after he launched massive overnight strikes on a key underground uranium enrichment site at Fordo, along with nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz. "We devastated the Iranian nuclear program," Hegseth told a Pentagon press briefing, adding that the operation "did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people." Standing beside Hegseth, top US general Dan Caine said "it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there." "Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction." Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading Protests in Tehran People gathered Sunday in the center of Tehran to protest against US and Israeli attacks, waving flags and chanting slogans, state TV showed. Trump claimed total success for the operation in an address to the nation hours after the attack, and Vice President JD Vance followed up on Sunday morning. "We know that we set the Iranian nuclear program back substantially last night, whether it's years or beyond," he told ABC. But he also suggested Iran still had its highly enriched uranium. "We're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel," he said. "They no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium." In Tehran, AFP journalists said aircraft had roared over the city for the first time since Israel's initial attacks. "Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, game isn't over, enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain," Khamenei advisor Ali Shamkhani said in a post on X. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed that the United States would "receive a response" to attacks during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the official IRNA news agency. Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told CNN that there were clear signs of the hit on Fordo. But "no one, neither us (or) nobody else could be able to tell you how much it has been damaged," he said. The IAEA said it had not detected any increase in radiation levels at the nuclear sites and Tehran said Sunday there were no signs of contamination. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prayed for Trump at the Western Wall in Jerusalem on Sunday, after hailing the strikes as a move that would "change history." Retaliation risk The Israeli military was also checking the results of the US raid on the deeply buried nuclear facility in Fordo, with a spokesman saying it was "too soon" to know if Iran had removed enriched uranium from the site. The main US strike group was seven B-2 Spirit bombers that flew 18 hours from the American mainland to Iran, Caine said. In response to the attack, which used over a dozen massive "bunker buster" bombs, Iran's armed forces said they targeted multiple sites in Israel including Ben Gurion airport, the country's main international gateway near Tel Aviv. Israeli rescuers said at least 23 people were wounded. In Jerusalem, Claudio Hazan, a 62-year-old software engineer, said he hoped the US intervention would hasten an end to the Iran-Israel war. "Israel by itself would not stop... and it would take longer," he said. At least nine members of the Revolutionary Guards were killed Sunday in Israeli attacks on central Iran, local media reported, as fighting between the two foes continued. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, which had been mediating Iran-US nuclear talks, criticized the US move and called for de-escalation. The leaders of France, Germany and Britain on Sunday urged Iran "not to take any further action that could destabilise the region." Following his address, Trump warned Iran against retaliation. Iran and its proxies have previously attacked US military bases in Iraq and elsewhere in the region. Iran's Huthi allies in Yemen on Sunday repeated their threat to resume attacks in the Red Sea if Washington joined the war, saying they were ready to target US ships and warships. The US president had stepped up his rhetoric against Iran since Israel first struck the country on June 13, repeating his insistence it could never have nuclear weapons. AFP

IOL News

2 hours ago

• IOL News

US attacks on Iran put Middle East on knife edge

Protesters in support of Iran and Palestinians in Gaza hold flags and placards during a demonstration against the actions of Israel and the US in Sydney, Australia. Similar protests were held in India, South Korea, Pakistan among other countries on Sunday. Image: AFP THE US's surprise strikes on Iran at the weekend threaten to deepen the conflict in the Middle East after Israel also launched its own bombing campaign against Iran, with Tehran vowing to retaliate against US involvement. In response to the US attack, Iran's armed forces said they targeted multiple sites in Israel including Ben Gurion airport, the country's main international gateway near Tel Aviv. Israeli rescuers said at least 23 people were wounded. Iran's Huthi allies in Yemen repeated their threat on Sunday to resume attacks in the Red Sea if Washington joined the war, saying they were ready to target US ships and military warships. This was after President Donald Trump claimed total success for the operation in an address to the nation just hours after the attack, and Vice President JD Vance said: "We know that we set the Iranian nuclear program back substantially last night, whether it's years or beyond," he told ABC. "We're not at war with Iran -- we're at war with Iran's nuclear program," he added. "The president took decisive action to destroy that program." The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency said it had not detected any increase in radiation levels at the nuclear sites and Tehran said there were no signs of contamination. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the US strikes, saying Trump's decision to "target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history." The Israeli military was also checking the results of the US raid on the deeply buried nuclear facility in Fordo, with a spokesperson saying it was "too soon" to know if Iran had removed enriched uranium from the site. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump "seeks peace, and Iran should take that path. "This mission was not, and has not been, about regime change." "We devastated the Iranian nuclear program," Hegseth told a Pentagon press briefing, adding that the operation "did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people." People gathered in the centre of Tehran to protest against US and Israeli attacks, waving flags and chanting slogans, state TV showed. Israel said it had launched fresh strikes on western Iran and in Qom, south of Tehran. Iran's official IRNA news agency reported four Revolutionary Guard members were killed in strikes on a military base in the city's north. Video Player is loading. 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Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the US attacks as "outrageous" and said his country had a right to defend its sovereignty. "The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences," he posted on social media, calling the attacks "lawless and criminal" behaviour. Araghchi later said the United States and Israel crossed "a very big red line" with the attacks, and said he would head to Moscow later Sunday for talks with President Vladimir Putin. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, which had been mediating Iran-US nuclear talks, criticised the US move and urged de-escalation. The European Union called on all sides "to step back," while stressing Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on Iran to "return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis". "Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat," Starmer said on X, adding that "stability in the region is a priority". French President Emmanuel Macron called a meeting of the country's defence council on Sunday, with his office saying he had spoken with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Oman. France urged "all parties to exercise restraint to avoid any escalation that could lead to an extension of the conflict", Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot posted on X. Russia "strongly condemned" the bombings, calling them "irresponsible" and a "gross violation of international law". "A dangerous escalation has begun, fraught with further undermining of regional and global security," the Russian foreign ministry added. China's foreign ministry also condemned the US strikes, warning that they "escalate tensions in the Middle East". "China calls on all parties to the conflict, especially Israel, to cease fire as soon as possible," the ministry said. President Cyril Ramaphosa called on the US, Israel, and Iran to give the United Nations the opportunity and space to lead on the peaceful resolution of the matters of dispute, including the inspection and verification of Iran's status of uranium enrichment, as well as its broader nuclear capacity. The UN was set to meet over the latest attacks on Sunday. THE MERCURY

The South African

3 hours ago

• The South African

'Change history', 'declaration of war': World reacts to US attack on Iran

The United States struck three nuclear sites in Iran on Sunday, joining Israel's bombing campaign after days of speculation over Washington's involvement in the conflict. 'Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,' US President Donald Trump said after the strikes. Here is a roundup of the key reactions: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the US attacks as 'outrageous' and said his country had a right to defend its sovereignty. 'The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences,' he posted on social media, calling the attacks 'lawless and criminal' behaviour. Araghchi later said the United States and Israel crossed 'a very big red line' with the attacks, and said he would head to Moscow later Sunday for talks with President Vladimir Putin. Israel: 'Change history' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump, saying the attacks would 'help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace'. 'Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history,' Netanyahu said in a video message, adding that the attacks demonstrated 'America has been truly unsurpassed'. He also told Israelis that his promise to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities had been 'fulfilled'. The European Union's top diplomat Kaja Kallas called for de-escalation and a return to negotiations. 'I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,' Kallas wrote on X, adding that Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and that EU foreign ministers would discuss the situation on Monday. Russia 'strongly condemned' the bombings, calling them 'irresponsible' and a 'gross violation of international law'. 'A dangerous escalation has begun, fraught with further undermining of regional and global security,' the Russian foreign ministry added. Ukraine's foreign ministry said the strikes were justified to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, praising them as a 'clear signal'. 'Ukraine is convinced that Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped so that it never again poses a threat to the countries of the Middle East or any other state,' it said. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the strikes a 'dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge'. 'There is no military solution. The only path forward is diplomacy. The only hope is peace,' Guterres said in a statement. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation warned that the strikes could lead to 'heightened tensions and threaten regional security, peace, and stability'. It called for 'de-escalation and self-restraint, and for resorting to dialogue and returning to negotiations and peaceful means.' UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on Iran to 'return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis'. 'Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat,' Starmer said on X, adding that 'stability in the region is a priority'. French President Emmanuel Macron has called a meeting of the country's defence council for Sunday, with his office saying he had spoken with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Oman on Sunday. France is urging 'all parties to exercise restraint to avoid any escalation that could lead to an extension of the conflict', Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot posted on X. China's foreign ministry said it 'strongly condemns' the US strikes, warning that they 'escalate tensions in the Middle East'. 'China calls on all parties to the conflict, especially Israel, to cease fire as soon as possible,' the ministry said. Pope Leo XIV said after the strikes that 'humanity is crying out for peace' and called for an end to all wars. 'Each member of the international community has the moral responsibility to end the tragedy of war, before it becomes an irreparable chasm,' Leo said during his weekly Angelus prayer at the Vatican. Saudi Arabia expressed 'great concern' after the strikes on its neighbour, the 'sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran'. 'The Kingdom underscores the need to exert all possible efforts to exercise restraint, de-escalate tensions, and avoid further escalation,' the foreign ministry posted on X. Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim country and a longtime Washington ally, said the US attacks 'violate all norms of international law'. 'We are gravely concerned at the possible further escalation of tensions in the region,' Pakistan's foreign ministry said, adding that Iran had the 'right to defend itself under the UN Charter'. The Palestinian militant group Hamas condemned the 'blatant US aggression against the territory and sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran'. 'This brutal aggression is a dangerous escalation,' Hamas said, calling the attack 'a flagrant violation of international law, and a direct threat to international peace and security'. Yemen's Houthi rebel government, which is backed by Iran, condemned the US attacks and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people. 'The Trump administration's reckless aggression… is a blatant declaration of war against the brotherly Iranian people. We declare our full support for the brotherly Iranian people,' it said. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1. 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