Climate change: New study reveals alarming flood and storm patterns in KwaZulu-Natal
The April 2022 floods left hundreds dead and caused a trail of destruction to infrastructure, businesses, homes, and communities.
Image: Doctor Ngcobo / Independent Media
In a stark revelation about climate challenges facing South Africa, a comprehensive study analysing weather-related disasters over the past 43 years has identified floods and storms as the most pervasive threats, particularly impacting KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
This was announced just days before severe weather struck, causing at least 90 deaths due to flooding in the Eastern Cape. Torrential rains and freezing temperatures also lashed KZN, where flooding events have become a tragic norm following the tragic devastation of the April 2022 floods.
With research led by Mary-Jane Bopape, managing director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), the study sheds light on the urgent need for enhanced climate resilience strategies in a province grappling with the devastation of heavy rainfall.
The research, utilising extensive data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), along with information from the South African Weather Service and European weather forecasting systems, has highlighted KZN's position as the most disaster-prone area, specifically the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, which has recorded the highest number of these weather-related events.
Flood-related events were the most common during this period, occurring 49 times, followed by storms, which were reported 33 times.
The study noted that this pattern is consistent with global disaster trends, where hydrological and meteorological hazards are the most frequently recorded natural disasters, according to the EM-DAT methodology.
Weather-related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023 were published in the Environmental Development journal by Mary-Jane Bopape, managing director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), and her team.
Image: Supplied
Flooding includes riverine floods, which occur when rivers overflow, and flash floods, which are caused by intense, short-duration rainfall. Storms are diverse events, such as landfalling ex-tropical cyclones (frequently bringing floods and high winds), convective storms with tornadoes, lightning, and severe thunderstorms, as well as winter storms.
'With these insights, we can better inform climate resilience strategies and proactive disaster management efforts. This important contribution to the field paves the way for more effective responses to climate challenges and disaster preparedness in our communities,' Bopape remarked, emphasising the research's potential impact.
The study found that, although KZN receives substantial rainfall, no evidence suggests that eThekwini experiences more rainfall than other districts in the province, which 'suggests human influences associated with urbanisation in disaster patterns'.
KwaZulu-Natal is bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east and the Drakensberg Mountains to the west. The province has experienced numerous flood-related disasters, it said.
Tropical cyclones have caused some of the most damaging events in the region. For example, Domoina in January 1984 brought extreme rainfall to northern KwaZulu-Natal, Swaziland, and eastern Mpumalanga. Analysis of events from 1984 to 2019 indicates that most of these were due to tropical lows.
The region is also highly susceptible to severe convective storms, with the eastern coastal zone as a hotspot for these events due to its proximity to the Agulhas Current, which provides significant latent heat for convection.
Cut-off low systems, known for causing prolonged heavy rainfall, have been linked to major floods like the April 2022 disaster and other historical flood events in the country.
'The catastrophic April 2022 floods in Durban caused extensive damage to infrastructure and claimed over 430 lives, making it the worst flood disaster in South Africa's history,' stated the study.
It also found that the Cape Town metro reports the highest number of disasters in the western part of the country, associated with more rainfall, yet human factors may also contribute.
Weather Systems responsible for floods and storms in SA from 1980 to 2023 with abbreviations indicated as follows: cut-off lows (CoL), upper troughs (UT), surface troughs (ST), ex tropical cyclones (ETC), upper perturbations (UP), surface lows (SL) and continental low (CTL).
Image: Supplied
It emerged that cut-off low systems and upper troughs, which are classified as mid-troposphere mid-latitude systems, triggered the most floods and storms, while ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) caused only four disasters during the study period.
However, the study noted that upper perturbations, which are disturbances in the upper atmospheric flow pattern usually associated with clouds and precipitation, also resulted in floods and storm disasters, indicating a need for forecasters to also pay attention to smaller-scale processes, the study found.
'These findings enhance our understanding of weather-related disaster risks in South Africa, providing valuable insights for climate resilience and proactive disaster management.'
It stated that South Africa is among the most disaster-prone countries on the African continent and ranks among the nations with the highest exposure to extreme weather events.
South Africa and Libya experience the most significant economic losses from disasters in Africa, according to further economic analyses.
The study indicates that coastal cities in South Africa have experienced a statistically significant increase in flooding. This rise is attributed to a combination of natural occurrences and human-induced factors such as insufficient urban drainage systems, rapid population expansion, and improper land-use strategies.
In 2022, according to the study, there was a doubling in the record number of reported flood disasters, amounting to a total of eight incidents, giving a record number of disasters reported in a year.
'Four flood disasters were documented in 2019 and 2023, with three occurrences in 2000. It is noteworthy that until 1996, the number of reported flooding disasters did not exceed one.'
Droughts ranked third, with a total of 11 reported events. Unlike floods and storms, droughts do not have subcategories in EM-DAT. It was reported that all municipalities in South Africa experienced drought over the past three decades, with rain-fed farming suffering more than irrigated farming.
Climate change projections indicate an increased risk of drought due to reduced mean precipitation across much of southern Africa, attributed to global warming, it stated.
Consequently, proactive measures such as reducing land degradation and enhancing dam and irrigation capabilities are essential.
Wildfire disasters were reported 10 times, nearly as frequently as droughts. These have been associated with droughts and the proliferation of invasive alien plants. During the analysis period, only three temperature-related disasters were reported, comprising two cold spells (July 1996 and May 2007) and one heatwave (January 2016).
The cold spells are generally associated with mid-latitude systems, including cold fronts, cut-off low (CoL) systems, and upper troughs and occasionally Type S ridging Atlantic high-pressure system, which all act as mechanisms to transport cooler air from the poles to the north impacting the subcontinent.
Both cold spells were associated with a CoL system, while the May 2007 event is also associated with a Type S ridging high. South Africa has experienced numerous environmental disasters in the past three decades, including droughts, wildfires, geological events such as earthquakes/tremors and temperature extremes.
'Droughts have been the most frequent, significantly impacting agriculture and likely to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are often linked to droughts and exacerbated by invasive plants.'
Geological events, though less frequent, have caused damage and casualties while temperature extremes have been less reported but show a trend towards more frequent heatwaves.
Overall, the study found that South Africa faces increasing disaster risks due to climate change, requiring proactive measures such as infrastructure strengthening, sustainable land management, improved public health, and better early warning systems.
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IOL News
a day ago
- IOL News
Climate change: New study reveals alarming flood and storm patterns in KwaZulu-Natal
The April 2022 floods left hundreds dead and caused a trail of destruction to infrastructure, businesses, homes, and communities. Image: Doctor Ngcobo / Independent Media In a stark revelation about climate challenges facing South Africa, a comprehensive study analysing weather-related disasters over the past 43 years has identified floods and storms as the most pervasive threats, particularly impacting KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). This was announced just days before severe weather struck, causing at least 90 deaths due to flooding in the Eastern Cape. Torrential rains and freezing temperatures also lashed KZN, where flooding events have become a tragic norm following the tragic devastation of the April 2022 floods. With research led by Mary-Jane Bopape, managing director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), the study sheds light on the urgent need for enhanced climate resilience strategies in a province grappling with the devastation of heavy rainfall. The research, utilising extensive data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), along with information from the South African Weather Service and European weather forecasting systems, has highlighted KZN's position as the most disaster-prone area, specifically the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, which has recorded the highest number of these weather-related events. Flood-related events were the most common during this period, occurring 49 times, followed by storms, which were reported 33 times. The study noted that this pattern is consistent with global disaster trends, where hydrological and meteorological hazards are the most frequently recorded natural disasters, according to the EM-DAT methodology. Weather-related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023 were published in the Environmental Development journal by Mary-Jane Bopape, managing director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), and her team. Image: Supplied Flooding includes riverine floods, which occur when rivers overflow, and flash floods, which are caused by intense, short-duration rainfall. Storms are diverse events, such as landfalling ex-tropical cyclones (frequently bringing floods and high winds), convective storms with tornadoes, lightning, and severe thunderstorms, as well as winter storms. 'With these insights, we can better inform climate resilience strategies and proactive disaster management efforts. This important contribution to the field paves the way for more effective responses to climate challenges and disaster preparedness in our communities,' Bopape remarked, emphasising the research's potential impact. The study found that, although KZN receives substantial rainfall, no evidence suggests that eThekwini experiences more rainfall than other districts in the province, which 'suggests human influences associated with urbanisation in disaster patterns'. KwaZulu-Natal is bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east and the Drakensberg Mountains to the west. The province has experienced numerous flood-related disasters, it said. Tropical cyclones have caused some of the most damaging events in the region. For example, Domoina in January 1984 brought extreme rainfall to northern KwaZulu-Natal, Swaziland, and eastern Mpumalanga. Analysis of events from 1984 to 2019 indicates that most of these were due to tropical lows. The region is also highly susceptible to severe convective storms, with the eastern coastal zone as a hotspot for these events due to its proximity to the Agulhas Current, which provides significant latent heat for convection. Cut-off low systems, known for causing prolonged heavy rainfall, have been linked to major floods like the April 2022 disaster and other historical flood events in the country. 'The catastrophic April 2022 floods in Durban caused extensive damage to infrastructure and claimed over 430 lives, making it the worst flood disaster in South Africa's history,' stated the study. It also found that the Cape Town metro reports the highest number of disasters in the western part of the country, associated with more rainfall, yet human factors may also contribute. Weather Systems responsible for floods and storms in SA from 1980 to 2023 with abbreviations indicated as follows: cut-off lows (CoL), upper troughs (UT), surface troughs (ST), ex tropical cyclones (ETC), upper perturbations (UP), surface lows (SL) and continental low (CTL). Image: Supplied It emerged that cut-off low systems and upper troughs, which are classified as mid-troposphere mid-latitude systems, triggered the most floods and storms, while ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) caused only four disasters during the study period. However, the study noted that upper perturbations, which are disturbances in the upper atmospheric flow pattern usually associated with clouds and precipitation, also resulted in floods and storm disasters, indicating a need for forecasters to also pay attention to smaller-scale processes, the study found. 'These findings enhance our understanding of weather-related disaster risks in South Africa, providing valuable insights for climate resilience and proactive disaster management.' It stated that South Africa is among the most disaster-prone countries on the African continent and ranks among the nations with the highest exposure to extreme weather events. South Africa and Libya experience the most significant economic losses from disasters in Africa, according to further economic analyses. The study indicates that coastal cities in South Africa have experienced a statistically significant increase in flooding. This rise is attributed to a combination of natural occurrences and human-induced factors such as insufficient urban drainage systems, rapid population expansion, and improper land-use strategies. In 2022, according to the study, there was a doubling in the record number of reported flood disasters, amounting to a total of eight incidents, giving a record number of disasters reported in a year. 'Four flood disasters were documented in 2019 and 2023, with three occurrences in 2000. It is noteworthy that until 1996, the number of reported flooding disasters did not exceed one.' Droughts ranked third, with a total of 11 reported events. Unlike floods and storms, droughts do not have subcategories in EM-DAT. It was reported that all municipalities in South Africa experienced drought over the past three decades, with rain-fed farming suffering more than irrigated farming. Climate change projections indicate an increased risk of drought due to reduced mean precipitation across much of southern Africa, attributed to global warming, it stated. Consequently, proactive measures such as reducing land degradation and enhancing dam and irrigation capabilities are essential. Wildfire disasters were reported 10 times, nearly as frequently as droughts. These have been associated with droughts and the proliferation of invasive alien plants. During the analysis period, only three temperature-related disasters were reported, comprising two cold spells (July 1996 and May 2007) and one heatwave (January 2016). The cold spells are generally associated with mid-latitude systems, including cold fronts, cut-off low (CoL) systems, and upper troughs and occasionally Type S ridging Atlantic high-pressure system, which all act as mechanisms to transport cooler air from the poles to the north impacting the subcontinent. Both cold spells were associated with a CoL system, while the May 2007 event is also associated with a Type S ridging high. South Africa has experienced numerous environmental disasters in the past three decades, including droughts, wildfires, geological events such as earthquakes/tremors and temperature extremes. 'Droughts have been the most frequent, significantly impacting agriculture and likely to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are often linked to droughts and exacerbated by invasive plants.' Geological events, though less frequent, have caused damage and casualties while temperature extremes have been less reported but show a trend towards more frequent heatwaves. Overall, the study found that South Africa faces increasing disaster risks due to climate change, requiring proactive measures such as infrastructure strengthening, sustainable land management, improved public health, and better early warning systems. [email protected]
IOL News
12-06-2025
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Floods and climate resilience: key findings from South Africa's weather-related disasters study
File image of damages caused by the April 2024 flash flood in Margate on the KZN South Coast. Image: Johan Steyn As the death toll rises to 67 from the recent floods in the Eastern Cape, Dr Mary-Jane Bopape., Managing Director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), along with her research collaborators, just released a comprehensive analysis of weather-related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023. The research, utilising data from respected sources such as the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and synoptic charts provided by the South African Weather Service, offers critical insights that are set to transform our understanding of climate resilience and disaster management. The study, which draws on sophisticated meteorological reanalyses such as the fifth generation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis (ERA5) and data from the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), identifies floods and storms as the most recurrent weather-related disasters faced in South Africa. Notably, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province is highlighted as the most affected region, with the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality emerging as the area with the highest number of recorded disaster events across the entire country. Remarkably, while KZN is known for its high rainfall, the research indicates that eThekwini does not necessarily experience more rainfall compared to other districts within the province. This surprising outcome suggests that human factors tied to urbanisation may exacerbate the impacts of weather-related disasters in these metropolitan areas. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ The Managing Director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF- SAEON), Dr Mary-Jane Bopape Image: Supplied "With these insights, we can better inform climate resilience strategies and proactive disaster management efforts. This important contribution to the field paves the way for more effective responses to climate challenges and disaster preparedness in our communities," says Dr Bopape. Her vision is clear: to leverage this study's findings for the benefit of future policies and community safety. Across South Africa, the research highlights that major urban centres, particularly the eThekwini, Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Cape Town metropolises, report significant occurrences of weather-related disasters. Notably, Johannesburg has been identified as a hotspot for floods, while Ekurhuleni leads in storm incidents within Gauteng province. However, urbanisation patterns may play a pivotal role in shaping disaster outcomes, with Gauteng noted for reporting the fewest droughts, likely due to its urban character.
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Runners taking part in the 2019 Comrades Marathon. Image: Leon Lestrade / Independent Media As thousands of runners and spectators make their way home after the 98th edition of the Comrades Marathon, KwaZulu-Natal Cogta MEC Thulasizwe Buthelezi has announced a comprehensive action plan in preparation for a cold front expected to sweep across the province. Beginning Sunday evening and lasting through Tuesday, the cold front threatens to bring extreme weather conditions, impacting not just the participants of the 89.98km down run from Pietermaritzburg to Durban, but also residents and motorists across the region. Scheduled to begin with two start times at 5.45am and 6am at Pietermaritzburg City Hall, the Comrades Marathon down run will conclude 12 hours later near Durban's People's Park. In a special briefing held on Friday, MEC Buthelezi relayed critical information from the South African Weather Service (Saws), highlighting that KZN is among eight provinces predicted to experience disruptive snowfall, particularly affecting traffic flow over mountain passes like the N3 highway at Van Reenen's Pass. The MEC said strong, damaging surface winds are expected over large parts that may cause a high risk of wildfires, especially in grazing land and densely populated areas. 'These extreme conditions will persist across various parts of our province, with strong winds expected along the coast until Tuesday.' Buthelezi said as the department responsible for disaster management in the province, it is important to provide an update on the state of preparedness for the extreme weather conditions expected over the weekend as the hosts of thousands of runners and spectators for the Comrades Marathon. He said soon after receiving alerts from Saws, all disaster management centres were activated to ensure a coordinated response and issued the early warning notifications. 'As a department, we would like to reassure all runners, spectators, visitors, businesses, motorists, and residents that our disaster management teams are fully prepared to respond to any incidents that may result from the extreme weather.' Buthelezi said the Joint Operations Cluster (JOC), comprising law enforcement agencies, emergency services, municipalities, and social partners, has also been activated. 'Our teams will be closely monitoring all routes, especially as runners and spectators begin their return journeys from Sunday evening after the conclusion of the race.' The MEC said the department is relieved that Saws has forecast predominantly mild to warm and windy conditions with partly cloudy to cloudy skies for the duration of the Comrades Marathon itself. He added that through the department's partnerships with non-governmental organisations, the private sector, and sister departments, relief supplies including blankets, mattresses, and non-perishable food items have been stockpiled. All centres and public facilities stand prepared to offer temporary shelter should the need arise, he stated. Buthelezi appealed to all road users to exercise extreme caution this weekend, especially when driving in windy, rainy, or snowy conditions. 'Municipalities will continue to monitor road conditions, and where necessary, closures will be announced, with traffic redirected to safer routes. Our social partners are also ready to deploy relief to strategically identified high-risk areas, especially along major travel routes.' Saws stated on Thursday that while these predominantly mild to warm and windy conditions are expected during the race, runners should be aware of a cool change in the weather later in the day, when a coastal low and cold front are expected to move northwards up the KwaZulu-Natal coast, introducing colder, more moist conditions to the coast and adjacent interior. 'Moreover, there will be a risk of showers or thunderstorms developing over the Drakensberg, spreading to the coast in the evening,' warned Saws. The MEC said the department is not only responding to an immediate cold front but also extending the focus to the broader winter season, encompassing all potential eventualities.
