What the US could benefit from Iran oil sanctions removal

Nearly all sales are to China and Iran incurs some discounts and risk to export its 'dark fleet' of tankers

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Zawya

5 hours ago

• Zawya

Octa's oil outlook: Middle East tensions threaten global supply

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 21 June 2025 - Crude oil, which is arguably the world's most important commodity, is on everybody's mind right now. The flared up conflict in the Middle East is increasing risks of a major oil supply shock, potentially pushing the price of 'black gold' into the stratosphere and completely derailing the global economy. In this article, Octa, a global retail broker, shares its expert opinion on the unfolding situation and outlines possible scenarios for the global oil market. As it often happens, the market started to price in the possibility of a new conflict in the Middle East well in advance. On 11 June, oil prices rose more than 4% after reports surfaced that the U.S. was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security concerns in the region. Two days later, Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, pushing both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the world's two major oil benchmarks, to five-month highs as investors anticipated potential supply disruptions from an open conflict. To this day, the conflict continues without resolution and oil prices remain elevated even as there are some telltale signs that the parties may be willing to negotiate. 'This burgeoning unrest introduces an unprecedented degree of volatility, significantly amplifying the specter of a catastrophic oil supply shock', argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, adding that the conflict between Israel and Iran 'carries ominous potential to propel crude prices to unprecedented levels, thereby unleashing a cascade of detrimental effects that could, in the most dire of scenarios, cause a major global economic crisis'. Indeed, the Middle East in general and Iran in particular play a pivotal role in global energy markets. A substantial portion of the world's crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) is produced and exported in this region. Iran itself, despite the existing sanctions on exports, remains an important supplier of oil—notably, for China. Furthermore, a vast number of ships carrying crude oil and LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet vital chokepoint that Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. Should Iran act on this threat and block the strait, the repercussions would be quite severe, likely pushing global crude oil prices well above $100 per barrel, or even higher, due to the significant disruption of supply. Technically, if we look at a broader, long-term picture, WTI crude oil seems to be moving sideways with a minor bearish tilt. On a daily chart (see below), the price still has not escaped from the bearish parallel channel. However, due to the latest geopolitical news, the price has managed to rise above the 200-day moving average (MA) and seems poised to break above the critically important 77.60-78.00 area. 'Breaching the $80 handle should not be difficult if the current situation deteriorates sharply', says Kar Yong Ang. 'Continuing destruction of oil infrastructure in Iran, potential U.S. involvement in the war, countries' unwillingness to negotiate and, above all else, Iran's attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, all of this will have a bullish impact on prices'. Indeed, a break above 80 level, would open the way towards 83.40, 85.20, 87.30, and 90.00 area. Alternatively, in case the hostilities moderate somewhat, other countries—particularly the U.S.—refrain from directly participating in the conflict, and both Israel and Iran express willingness to negotiate, bearish sentiment will immediately kick in. 'I think WTI oil may lose as much as 5 dollars per barrel in the blink of an eye should we see some progress in nuclear negotiations between Europeans and Iranians, which are due to commence in Geneva this Friday', concludes Kar Yong Ang. In this scenario, a break below 71.50 level would allow bears to target 67.80, 64.80 and 61.70. Overall, WTI crude price is now stuck in a broad range between $70 and $80. The move above and below these two levels will essentially indicate if the situation in the region is getting worse or is getting better. The chart below shows potential bullish and bearish targets, marked in green and red, respectively. NYMEX light sweet crude oil (WTI) daily chart ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively. Octa

The National

13 hours ago

• The National

Has Europe given Iran an impossible nuclear ultimatum?

European negotiators have insisted Iran must accept that it cannot enrich uranium as part of its nuclear programme, so that peace can return to the Middle East, experts told The National. It is understood that Iran has been agreeable to limiting enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is the standard level required for civilian nuclear reactors and was part of the previous nuclear agreement. But even this amount is unacceptable to the three European countries, Britain, France and Germany, currently holding talks with Iran in Geneva. 'The Europeans have now started insisting on zero as well, which the Iranians have said is going to be a non-starter,' said Darya Dolzikova, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Rusi think tank. Iran has engaged in years of brinkmanship by defying international inspectors to enrich uranium to near weapons-grade level. Until the Israeli attacks of the last week, the threat of an assault on its installations seemed to have 'lacked some credibility for the Iranians'. In recent days the regime has appeared to accept the 3.67 per cent figure as a negotiating position, the same amount agreed under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement. For any deal to last it will have to be signed off by US President Donald Trump who has also insisted on zero enrichment, said Richard Pater, director of Bicom, the Anglo-Israeli think tank. 'It all depends on whether 3.67 is acceptable to Trump or whether he's insisting on no enrichment whatsoever,' he said. 'But it's also this question of whether Trump will accept that [3.67 per cent] to get the big peace deal that he wants. Israel will then have no choice but to acquiesce to the American position.' Ms Dolzikova also argued that the Iranians would not agree to a deal that 'doesn't involve the United States as they are the critical players'. But Israel itself has insisted that it will not back down until Iran completely ends its nuclear programme and has made clear that any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is something that it will not accept. Hasan Al Hasan, a nuclear expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that the 3.67 per cent figure was now redundant as 'there is no indication that Israel is in a mood to negotiate'. Having achieved near total freedom of action in the skies, Israel was likely to 'press ahead with its maximalist war objectives of eliminating Iran's nuclear and missile programmes and perhaps even regime change'. He added that Mr Trump's announcement that he would make no decision on joining the attacks - that would benefit from America's massive bunker-busting bombs - for the next two weeks was a signal for Israel to 'get the job done' in that period. But there is also a question whether within that fortnight window Israel, without US bombs, has the capability to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. 'Israel is obviously probably more bullish right now and looking for the removal of the whole nuclear project in its entirety, but it remains to be seen whether that's in their gift,' said Ms Dolzikova. There is also a fear that if 3.67 per cent is agreed by Iran then it might in secret enrich uranium, and conduct a nuclear weaponisation programme viewing it as the only effective deterrent. 'If the regime survives this, then 3.67 per cent gives them another basis with which to start again,' said Mr Pater. 'Israel is under no illusion the Iranians given the chance, will do it all over again.'

Khaleej Times

13 hours ago

• Khaleej Times

Nepal: Methane gas reserves discovered in Himalayan nation

Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli welcomed as "good news" on Friday the discovery of large methane gas reserves in the Himalayan nation in a joint study with China. "The news that there are 112 billion cubic metres of gas... is good news," Oli said in a Facebook post. The Department of Mines and Geology said the gas was discovered in the western district of Dailekh. "This is an initial estimate. Lab tests of the samples will give more information on the characteristics of the reserve," Prakash Luitel, a geologist at the department, told AFP. The study was conducted with the government-run China Geological Survey. "The final report is expected in December. We will then get better information for the next stage," said the mines and geology department's spokesman Mukunda Bhattarai. He said drilling was done at a depth of up to 4,013 metres (13,166 feet). Petroleum products remain landlocked Nepal's top import despite Kathmandu boosting energy production in recent years through a dam-building spree. Nepal spent more than $1.5 billion on petroleum products over the past 10 months, accounting for nearly 16 percent of total imports, according to central bank data.