Has Europe given Iran an impossible nuclear ultimatum?
European negotiators have insisted Iran must accept that it cannot enrich uranium as part of its nuclear programme, so that peace can return to the Middle East, experts told The National.
It is understood that Iran has been agreeable to limiting enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is the standard level required for civilian nuclear reactors and was part of the previous nuclear agreement.
But even this amount is unacceptable to the three European countries, Britain, France and Germany, currently holding talks with Iran in Geneva.
'The Europeans have now started insisting on zero as well, which the Iranians have said is going to be a non-starter,' said Darya Dolzikova, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Rusi think tank.
Iran has engaged in years of brinkmanship by defying international inspectors to enrich uranium to near weapons-grade level. Until the Israeli attacks of the last week, the threat of an assault on its installations seemed to have 'lacked some credibility for the Iranians'.
In recent days the regime has appeared to accept the 3.67 per cent figure as a negotiating position, the same amount agreed under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.
For any deal to last it will have to be signed off by US President Donald Trump who has also insisted on zero enrichment, said Richard Pater, director of Bicom, the Anglo-Israeli think tank.
'It all depends on whether 3.67 is acceptable to Trump or whether he's insisting on no enrichment whatsoever,' he said. 'But it's also this question of whether Trump will accept that [3.67 per cent] to get the big peace deal that he wants. Israel will then have no choice but to acquiesce to the American position.'
Ms Dolzikova also argued that the Iranians would not agree to a deal that 'doesn't involve the United States as they are the critical players'.
But Israel itself has insisted that it will not back down until Iran completely ends its nuclear programme and has made clear that any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is something that it will not accept.
Hasan Al Hasan, a nuclear expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that the 3.67 per cent figure was now redundant as 'there is no indication that Israel is in a mood to negotiate'.
Having achieved near total freedom of action in the skies, Israel was likely to 'press ahead with its maximalist war objectives of eliminating Iran's nuclear and missile programmes and perhaps even regime change'.
He added that Mr Trump's announcement that he would make no decision on joining the attacks - that would benefit from America's massive bunker-busting bombs - for the next two weeks was a signal for Israel to 'get the job done' in that period.
But there is also a question whether within that fortnight window Israel, without US bombs, has the capability to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
'Israel is obviously probably more bullish right now and looking for the removal of the whole nuclear project in its entirety, but it remains to be seen whether that's in their gift,' said Ms Dolzikova.
There is also a fear that if 3.67 per cent is agreed by Iran then it might in secret enrich uranium, and conduct a nuclear weaponisation programme viewing it as the only effective deterrent.
'If the regime survives this, then 3.67 per cent gives them another basis with which to start again,' said Mr Pater. 'Israel is under no illusion the Iranians given the chance, will do it all over again.'
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