India vs the oil choke point: How we're dodging the Strait of Hormuz fallout amid the Israel–Iran war
Military conflict in the Middle East is intensifying. Following US airstrikes on three of Iran's nuclear sites, Tehran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but essential maritime passage between Iran and Oman that handles about 20 per cent of the world's daily oil consumption.
Iranian lawmaker and Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari stated that closure "is on the agenda and will be done whenever necessary." Press TV reported that Iran's Parliament has approved the proposal and the Supreme National Security Council will take the final call.
This has raised alarms globally. Oil tankers are already hesitating to enter the region. Around 50 large tankers are currently navigating out of the strait, according to media reports.
What the Strait of Hormuz means for India
This 33-kilometre-wide passage links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. India, the world's third-largest oil importer, gets over 40 per cent of its crude and about half its gas from countries whose shipments pass through this strait. That means around 2 million barrels per day of Indian imports move through this bottleneck.
"If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, India will definitely suffer," said Robinder Sachdev, a foreign affairs expert, in an interview with ANI. "About 20 per cent of the world's crude oil and 25 per cent of the world's natural gas flow through these."
Live Events
For every $10 rise in oil prices, India's GDP takes a hit of 0.5 per cent, he warned.
India's diversification: Why panic may be premature
Despite the Strait's significance, India may not feel the full brunt of its closure. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told NDTV, "We have enough diversified supplies of crude, and even if there were to be a disruption, we can source it from alternative suppliers. I don't think this is something we are unduly worried about."
Russia has become India's top crude supplier, overtaking the Middle East. According to Kpler data, Indian refiners imported 2.1–2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in June—more than from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait combined. Imports from the US also rose to 439,000 bpd in June, up from 280,000 bpd in May.
These imports do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. Russian crude flows via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or the Pacific Ocean.
India also draws LNG from Australia, Russia, and the US, and Qatar's LNG for India avoids the strait altogether. That limits gas supply exposure as well.
Market volatility: A real concern
Geopolitical risk is already fuelling
oil price spikes
. Brent crude has jumped to $77 per barrel following Iran's missile retaliation against Israel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say prices could exceed $90 if tensions escalate. Citigroup estimates prices could reach that mark specifically if the Strait is shut.
"Oil markets remain adequately supplied," said Jain from Yes Securities. He cited OPEC's 4 million bpd spare capacity and US shale oil as stabilising forces.
But not everyone is reassured. Credit agency
ICRA
warned that higher oil prices would erode the profits of Indian state-run retailers like IOC, BPCL and HPCL, which have kept domestic prices steady despite falling global benchmarks.
Strategic backstops in place
India has buffers. It holds strategic reserves covering 9 to 10 days of oil imports. It also exports petroleum products, primarily through private refiners like
Reliance
and Nayara, giving it some flexibility in domestic fuel management.
If needed, the government could limit exports and introduce price subsidies for diesel and LPG to contain inflation.
Could Iran really shut it down? History says no
Iran has threatened to close the strait before but never followed through. During the 1980s Tanker War, the strait remained operational despite missile attacks and naval confrontations.
In 2011 and again in 2019, Iran made similar threats in response to sanctions. Each time, the route stayed open.
Shweta Singh of South Asian University explained why. "It will hurt Iran's friend, China, the world's second-largest economy, and Iran's largest trading partner," she wrote in Mint. China buys nearly 75 per cent of Iran's oil exports.
It would also strain ties with Oman and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and fuel domestic unrest due to inflation. "Any economic hits or closure of its oil exporting terminal will see a surge in prices and fuel popular discontent," Singh added.
Steven Schork of the Schork Group echoed this: "I do not think Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz because it would hurt India and China, two of their biggest oil export clients."
So far, supplies remain intact. However, data from Kpler shows a drop in Middle East tanker activity. The number of empty tankers headed into the Gulf has dropped from 69 to 40. Signals bound for the region from the Gulf of Oman have halved.
"Vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, told PTI.
India will need to watch closely, and adapt fast if the situation worsens. But for now, thanks to a broad and nimble import strategy, it stands more prepared than many.
The Strait of Hormuz may be heating up, but India isn't yet sweating.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
India.com
18 minutes ago
- India.com
Iran-Israel War: ‘Chernobyl in the Making?' Explosions Rock Iran's Nuclear Plant After US Strikes
Iran-Israel War: Tensions in the Middle East soared further on June 22 as explosions echoed through Iran's southern port city of Bushehr, home to the country's only operational nuclear power plant. The Israeli military claimed responsibility for the strike, saying it also targeted missile launchers in Isfahan and Ahvaz. The timing of the attack – barely hours after the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites – has raised serious fears of a looming nuclear crisis. While Iranian officials have yet to confirm any damage to the nuclear plant itself, concerns are mounting. Built with Russian assistance, the facility operates using nuclear fuel supplied by Moscow. The same fuel is shipped back to Russia after use to mitigate proliferation risks. As of now, Iranian authorities report no radiation leaks. But the attack is being viewed in international circles as a dangerously provocative move. Rafael Grossi, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), had previously warned that a direct strike on the Bushehr plant could trigger catastrophic consequences. 'A hit on the facility could lead to a massive release of radioactivity, affecting not just Iran but its neighbours as well,' he had said while addressing the UN Security Council. Experts agree that if a direct strike compromises the reactor, the fallout could mirror nuclear disasters of the past. The comparison many are drawing is to Chernobyl. In that 1986 tragedy, a botched test led to an explosion and fire at a reactor in Ukraine, spreading radioactive contamination across Europe and causing long-term health damage to thousands. According to international nuclear safety protocols, any such incident at Bushehr would demand swift protective actions. These would likely include mass evacuations, iodine distribution, food and water restrictions and large-scale radiation monitoring across several hundred kilometres. Russia has issued its own warnings. With more than 600 personnel, including 250 permanent staff, stationed at the Bushehr facility, Moscow had reportedly sought assurances from Israel for their safety. Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev said any damage to the site could unleash a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl. The Israeli military had previously claimed its mention of Bushehr as a target was a mistake. But the latest strikes tell a different story. As images of smoke rising over Bushehr surface on social media and satellite data, the world is left to reckon with the possibility that a new chapter in warfare – one where nuclear power plants become battlefronts – may be closer than ever imagined. For now, the region holds its breath. Radiation levels remain normal. But questions remain – how close did the world come to a nuclear nightmare? And what happens if the next missile does not miss?
Deccan Herald
19 minutes ago
- Deccan Herald
Shah's anti-English position harms India
Union Home Minister Amit Shah's denunciation of the English language is ill-conceived and uninformed, and will only work against the country's unity and development. Speaking at the launch of a book by a former civil servant in Delhi on Thursday, Shah said, ''The time is not far away for people speaking in English in the country to feel ashamed'. The prejudice against English is part of the ideology and politics of his party, and Shah has only given expression to it. He is right in saying that the languages of our country are the jewels of our culture, but wrong in dismissing the role of English as a linking and unifying language. He is also right in saying that we should take pride in our languages, but pride in one's own language need not translate into shame about another language. Languages are not zero sum games, and the knowledge of another language does not mean degradation or devaluation of the mother tongue. Languages gain by interaction. All Indian languages have enriched themselves from their interaction with English. .English not a shame but power: Rahul Gandhi hits back at Amit Shah's remarks, says discouraging it to deny opportunities .English is spoken by over 100 million people in the country, and the number exceeds the number of speakers of most other languages. It is the official language in many states. India is also said to have the second largest English-speaking population in the world. English has served as the official and link language for centuries in our country, which speaks richly diverse languages. It is difficult to imagine English losing its status in the near future, going by the people's attitude towards it. The usefulness and popularity of a language don't always depend on government policies. People's relationship with language is a sensitive matter and governments should handle it with care and caution. .Shah's tirade against English should also be seen in context of the efforts of the central government and the BJP to promote Hindi aggressively. This has resulted in apprehensions about domination of Hindi in non-Hindi states. English was the language of power in India during colonial times but after the British left, it serves as a link language, with an equal relationship with all languages of the country. The replacement of English would lead to its place being taken up by Hindi, which comes with political baggage. English is also India's window to the world in every respect, and closing that window would hurt and set the country back. Shah says India cannot be imagined with a foreign language. But the idea of India is not static--it has room for English, which is no longer considered a foreign language.
Hindustan Times
19 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Oil soars as Trump's attack on Iran ramps up risks to supplies
Oil surged after the US struck Iran's three main nuclear sites and threatened further attacks, exacerbating a crisis in the Middle East and stoking concerns that energy supplies from the region could be disrupted. A map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is seen behind a 3D printed oil pipeline in this illustration taken June 22, 2025.(Reuters) Global benchmark Brent rallied as much as 5.7% to $81.40 a barrel, extending three weeks of gains. Timespreads widened. In a weekend address, US President Donald Trump said air attacks had 'obliterated' the trio of targets, and threatened more military action if Iran didn't make peace. In its initial reply, Tehran warned the strikes would trigger 'everlasting consequences.' The US assault — which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — dramatically raises the stakes in the confrontation and increases the premium that traders are pricing into the global energy market. Still, the extent of the gains will hinge on how Tehran opts to respond to the US moves. The global oil market has been gripped by the crisis since Israel attacked Iran more than a week ago, with futures pushing higher, options volumes spiking along with freight rates, and the futures curve shifting to reflect tensions about tighter near-term supplies. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude output, and higher, sustained prices would boost inflationary pressures worldwide. 'This could set us on a path toward $100 oil, if Iran responds as they have previously threatened to,' said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. 'This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict.' There are multiple, overlapping risks for physical crude flows. The biggest centers on the Strait of Hormuz, should Tehran seek to retaliate by attempting to close the chokepoint. About a fifth of the world's crude output passes through the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iran's parliament has called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV. Such a move, however, could not proceed though without the explicit approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rival Suppliers In addition, Tehran could opt to target crude infrastructure in rival suppliers in the Middle East, such as fellow OPEC producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates. After the US attack, both Riyadh and Baghdad expressed concern about the targeting of the nuclear facilities. Elsewhere, Tehran could orchestrate attacks on ships on the other side of the Arabian peninsula in the Red Sea, encouraging Yemen-based Houthi rebels to harass vessels. After the US attacks, the group threatened retaliation. If the hostilities escalate, Tehran's own oil-producing capabilities could be targeted, including the key export hub at Kharg Island. Such a move, however, could send crude prices soaring, an outcome that America might want to avoid. So far, Kharg Island has been spared, with satellite imagery pointing to a drive by Iran to expedite its exports of oil. The crisis will also throw a spotlight onto the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies including Russia. In recent months, OPEC has been relaxing supply curbs at a rapid clip seeking to regain market share, and yet members still have substantial idled capacity that could be reactivated.
