Israel's war against Iran is a gamble - and to pay off it can't afford to miss
"You come at the king, you best not miss," says Omar Little, channelling Machiavelli, in the US crime series The Wire.
But the same principle applies to Israel's decision to attack Iran. It's war is a gamble - to pay off, it must be entirely successful. It cannot afford to miss.
That may seem a strange thing to say as things stand. Israel seems to be hitting its targets with devastating accuracy.
Take the stunning campaign of decapitation: Israeli intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman reports that Israel has developed the ability to monitor Iran 's top officials "in real time".
That fearsome power is being wielded with awesome effect. Iran's military and intelligence commanders are being traced and eliminated one by one - 20 of them in the first night alone.
The destruction of Iran's air defences is also on the mark. It has left Iran's skies open to Israeli jets to destroy target after target with pinpoint accuracy.
The mission is to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, but also it seems the regime's means of repression and control.
3:47
To be absolutely sure of success, Israel needs the regime to fall. It must destroy both Iran's ability to develop the bomb, but more importantly, its will to do so.
Fail on either front, and Iran's leaders will prioritise building a nuclear weapon. They will have to, so they can defend themselves better next time.
2:12
Their ability to build the bomb will be impossible to destroy completely, however massive the munitions Israel puts into the centrifuge halls of Natanz and Fordow.
The Iranian nuclear programme is too far developed. They have the knowledge and expertise. For as many nuclear scientists Israel kills, there are their students to replace them.
0:24
And the technology is in their favour. As one western source told the Israeli Haaretz newspaper over the weekend: "They have knowledge about the plant centrifuges.
"They don't need as many centrifuges as they used to. They can build a small plant somewhere, heavily fortified underground, maybe even in less than three years."
1:36
At some point, the Israelis will need to end their campaign. The Iranians' desire to build the bomb will then be redoubled among what's left of their regime.
The capacity to do so will have been degraded, but the know-how will remain. Toppling the regime will be the surest way of achieving Israel's aims if it ushers in a replacement not determined to go nuclear.
Israel knows that and has been going after people and places essential to the regime's apparatus of internal control and repression.
It has been attacking energy infrastructure, too, knowing soaring energy prices may fuel social unrest and dissent.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
22 minutes ago
- The Guardian
David Lammy repeatedly declines to say whether British government believes US strikes on Iran were illegal
Update: Date: 2025-06-23T07:53:06.000Z Title: Welcome and opening summary … Content: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of UK politics. Here are the headlines … Foreign secretary David Lammy has repeatedly declined to say whether the British government believes US strikes on Iran were illegal. Prime minister Keir Starmer has warned of a 'risk of escalation' in the Middle East and beyond, backing the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and calling on Tehran to return to negotiations The government has promised electricity costs for thousands of businesses will be cut by scrapping green levies as a key part of a 10-year industrial strategy. Starmer said the plan marks a 'turning point for Britain's economy' Reform UK are to offer wealthy foreigners and returning British expats a bespoke tax regime in exchange for a one-off payment of £250,000 with all funds collected redistributed to Britain's lowest-paid workers, the party claims There are quite a few things in the diary for the day. Chancellor Rachel Reeves and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds will be out promoting the government's industry strategy. Health secretary Wes Streeting is giving a speech in London, while opposition leader Kemi Badenoch is appearing at a Policy Exchange event at lunchtime. Minister Stephen Doughty will be appearing before the foreign affairs committee discussing the Chagos agreement, while Northern Ireland secretary Hilary Benn faces the Northern Ireland affairs committee. In the Commons there are questions on work and pensions and a general debate on Pride month. It is Martin Belam with you today. You can reach me at
Reuters
22 minutes ago
- Reuters
Any Iranian closure of Hormuz Strait would be 'extremely dangerous', EU's top diplomat says
BRUSSELS, June 23 (Reuters) - An Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be dangerous and "not good for anybody", the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday. "The concerns of retaliation and this war escalating are huge, especially closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is something that would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody," Kaja Kallas told reporters ahead of a meeting with EU foreign ministers. Iran's Press TV reported on Sunday that Iran's Supreme National Security Council needed to make a final decision on whether to close the strait, after parliament was reported to back the measure. About 20% of global oil and gas demand flows through the channel.
The Independent
33 minutes ago
- The Independent
David Lammy refuses to say whether US attack on Iran was ‘right' or ‘legal'
Foreign secretary David Lammy has refused to defend Donald Trump 's attack on Iran and confirm it was either legal or even 'the right thing to do'. In an awkward interview on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme, Mr Lammy was asked four times if the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities was legal. It comes after Donald Trump's regime conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, despite Sir Keir Starmer pushing for de-escalation in the preceding days. The questions followed reports that UK attorney general Lord Hermer has suggested it would not be legal for the UK to launch such attacks. Radio 4 Today presenter Justin Webb asked him four times if the attack was legal with the foreign secretary avoiding the answer. 'We were not involved, it is for the Americans to discuss those legal issues," he responded repeatedly. The issue is important because of fears that it undermines the case against Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. However, Mr Lammy was not even able to answer whether the attack by US B-2 stealth bombers was even 'the right thing to do'. Mr Webb asked him: "Was the (US) military action the right thing to do?" Mr Lammy avoided the question, answering: "I've said that we weren't involved in the military action." Webb asked again: "Was it the right thing to do?" Lammy responded: "What I've said is that ultimately this can only be dealt with in diplomacy." The foreign secretary was not the only senior minister to refuse to answer difficult questions about the rapidly changing international crisis in the Middle East. Earlier, armed forces minister Luke Pollard claimed it is 'not for [him] to comment' on US action in the Middle East, refusing to say whether Britain is supportive of US strikes in Iran. Asked whether the UK was disappointed or pleased about the military intervention, Luke Pollard told Sky News: 'Well, it's not for me to comment on the particular US action, but we're assessing the battle damage at the moment to understand the true extent of the strikes. 'But our focus and the work that we are doing in conjunction with our US allies as well as those across Europe, is to put the pressure on the Iranian regime to get back to negotiating because a diplomatic solution is how we bring this crisis to an end.' When it was put to Mr Pollard that it was specifically his role to comment on military action around the world, he replied: 'I'm not going to be able to comment on that question, but what we can say is that we were not involved in the military action that the US took.' He added that Britain's focus was also on putting 'pressure on the Iranian regime to get back to negotiations because a diplomatic solution is how we bring this crisis to an end, with Iran not able to create a nuclear weapon, handing over their nuclear materials that they possess, and giving commitments that they won't threaten regional stability by developing a nuclear weapon in the future'. Over the weekend, the US attacked Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz which are linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Ahead of the strikes, the prime minister had been calling for calm, saying he has 'no doubt' that Mr Trump backs the G7's call for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. It is understood there was no British involvement in the action but the government was informed before the US strikes. After the strikes took place, Sir Keir backed Mr Trump's administration describing Iran's nuclear programme as a 'grave threat to international security'. 'Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat', he added. But he later warned there was a risk of the Middle East crisis spiralling beyond the region and urged all sides to return to negotiations.
