How does Switzerland predict landslides?
Blatten: The destructive landslide in the Swiss village of Blatten is the latest natural disaster to hit valley communities in the Alpine nation.
While Blatten was engulfed by a slick of icy sediment this week, early warnings of a potential landslide gave residents time to evacuate. Only one person — who chose to remain in his home — is currently unaccounted for. The search for him has been suspended.
Switzerland is an early warning success story.
Government agencies there use a broad range of technologies and methods to assess risks that could threaten lives and property.
This includes terrain mapping and continuous monitoring of rainfall, permafrost melt, groundwater levels, tectonic shifts and ground movement.
This data allows authorities to maintain hazard risk maps across the country.
"Every community in Switzerland that's affected by a hazard has a hazard map. They're federally mandated for the areas where people live," said Brian McArdell, a geomorphologist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL).
In Blatten's case, officials issued alerts after a nearby rockfall destabilised the Birch Glacier.
Combined with warming summer temperatures, the glacier fractured. A slurry of ice, sediment and mud then roared down the mountain to the village below.
World's mountainous regions most at risk
Steep slopes, unstable terrain and exposure to high rainfall or permafrost melt put mountain regions more at risk of landslides and avalanches.
For valley communities in Switzerland, the potential for a landslide can mean entire towns need to be evacuated.
Following the Blatten landslide, several nearby communities remain on alert, including for potential flooding.
Brienz, a village around 25 miles (41 km) north of Blatten, is also preparing for possible evacuation. The town has faced repeated warnings and "near miss" rockslide events since 2023.
"In general, debris flow is a mixture of coarse and fine sediment — so everything from boulders, to mud, to very fine sediments and water," said McArdell.
"These events can occur quite suddenly and they're quite, quite dangerous."
Regions with the highest landslide-related fatalities globally include the Himalayas, parts of Central and South America, Italy and Iran.
The International Conference on Glaciers' Preservation is currently being held in Tajikistan, where Farinotti expects the release of a "Glacier Declaration" urging greater action to protect ice masses from the effects of climate change.
"[It will] call for various actions and, among others, it will call for increased preparedness against risk deriving from cryospheric hazards, so avalanches," he said.
Guzzetti also highlighted the UN's Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to establish a global early warning system by 2027. If achieved, this could be a major step toward saving lives from natural hazards.
While wealthy nations like Switzerland have reliable infrastructure to warn communities of potential disasters, many others are still playing catch-up. According to UN figures, only 108 countries had the capacity for "multi-hazard early warning systems" last year though that is more than double the number from 2015.
The benefits are clear, said Guzzetti, pointing to the Blatten evacuation: "It seems that they were very good at evacuating the town in time, so that fatalities were nil, or very small."
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Times of Oman
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- Times of Oman
How does Switzerland predict landslides?
Blatten: The destructive landslide in the Swiss village of Blatten is the latest natural disaster to hit valley communities in the Alpine nation. While Blatten was engulfed by a slick of icy sediment this week, early warnings of a potential landslide gave residents time to evacuate. Only one person — who chose to remain in his home — is currently unaccounted for. The search for him has been suspended. Switzerland is an early warning success story. Government agencies there use a broad range of technologies and methods to assess risks that could threaten lives and property. This includes terrain mapping and continuous monitoring of rainfall, permafrost melt, groundwater levels, tectonic shifts and ground movement. This data allows authorities to maintain hazard risk maps across the country. "Every community in Switzerland that's affected by a hazard has a hazard map. They're federally mandated for the areas where people live," said Brian McArdell, a geomorphologist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). In Blatten's case, officials issued alerts after a nearby rockfall destabilised the Birch Glacier. Combined with warming summer temperatures, the glacier fractured. A slurry of ice, sediment and mud then roared down the mountain to the village below. World's mountainous regions most at risk Steep slopes, unstable terrain and exposure to high rainfall or permafrost melt put mountain regions more at risk of landslides and avalanches. For valley communities in Switzerland, the potential for a landslide can mean entire towns need to be evacuated. Following the Blatten landslide, several nearby communities remain on alert, including for potential flooding. Brienz, a village around 25 miles (41 km) north of Blatten, is also preparing for possible evacuation. The town has faced repeated warnings and "near miss" rockslide events since 2023. "In general, debris flow is a mixture of coarse and fine sediment — so everything from boulders, to mud, to very fine sediments and water," said McArdell. "These events can occur quite suddenly and they're quite, quite dangerous." Regions with the highest landslide-related fatalities globally include the Himalayas, parts of Central and South America, Italy and Iran. The International Conference on Glaciers' Preservation is currently being held in Tajikistan, where Farinotti expects the release of a "Glacier Declaration" urging greater action to protect ice masses from the effects of climate change. "[It will] call for various actions and, among others, it will call for increased preparedness against risk deriving from cryospheric hazards, so avalanches," he said. Guzzetti also highlighted the UN's Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to establish a global early warning system by 2027. If achieved, this could be a major step toward saving lives from natural hazards. While wealthy nations like Switzerland have reliable infrastructure to warn communities of potential disasters, many others are still playing catch-up. According to UN figures, only 108 countries had the capacity for "multi-hazard early warning systems" last year though that is more than double the number from 2015. The benefits are clear, said Guzzetti, pointing to the Blatten evacuation: "It seems that they were very good at evacuating the town in time, so that fatalities were nil, or very small."
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The collapse of the Swiss Birch glacier serves as a chilling warning of the escalating dangers faced by communities worldwide living under the shadow of fragile ice, particularly in Asia, experts say. Footage of the May 28 collapse showed a huge cloud of ice and rubble hurtling down the mountainside, into the hamlet of Blatten. Ali Neumann, disaster risk reduction advisor to the Swiss Development Cooperation, noted that while the role of climate change in the specific case of Blatten "still needs to be investigated", the wider impacts were clear on the cryosphere -- the part of the world covered by frozen water. "Climate change and its impact on the cryosphere will have growing repercussions on human societies that live near glaciers, near the cryosphere, and depend on glaciers somehow and live with them," he said. The barrage largely destroyed Blatten, but the evacuation of its 300 residents last week averted mass casualties, although one person remains missing. "It also showed that with the right skills and observation and management of an emergency, you can significantly reduce the magnitude of this type of disaster," Neumann said at an international UN-backed glacier conference in Tajikistan. Stefan Uhlenbrook, Director for Hydrology, Water, and Cryosphere at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said it highlighted the need for vulnerable regions, such as the Himalayas and other parts of Asia, to prepare. "From monitoring, to data sharing, to numerical simulation models, to hazard assessment, and to communicating that, the whole chain needs to be strengthened," Uhlenbrook said. "But in many Asian countries, this is weak, the data is not sufficiently connected." - 'Not enough' - Swiss geologists use various methods, including sensors and satellite images, to monitor their glaciers. Asia was the world's most disaster-hit region due to climate and weather hazards in 2023, according to the United Nations, with floods and storms being the chief causes of casualties and economic losses. But many Asian nations, particularly in the Himalayas, lack the resources to monitor their vast glaciers to the same degree as the Swiss. According to a 2024 UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction report, two-thirds of countries in the Asia and Pacific region have early warning systems. But the least developed countries, many of whom are in the frontlines of climate change, have the worst coverage. "Monitoring is not absent, but it is not enough," said geologist Sudan Bikash Maharjan of the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). "Our terrains and climatic conditions are challenging, but also we lack that level of resources for intensive data generation." That gap is reflected in the number of disaster-related fatalities for each event. While the average number of fatalities per disaster was 189 globally, in Asia and the Pacific, it was much higher at 338, according to the Belgium-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters' Emergency Events Database. Geoscientist Jakob Steiner, who works in climate adaptation in Nepal and Bhutan, said it is not as simple as just exporting the Swiss technological solutions. "These are complex disasters, working together with the communities is just as, if not much more, important," he said. - 'Sad disparity' - Himalayan glaciers, providing critical water to nearly two billion people, are melting faster than ever before due to climate change, exposing communities to unpredictable and costly disasters, scientists warn. Hundreds of lakes formed from glacial meltwater have appeared in recent decades. They can be deadly when they burst and rush down the valley. The softening of permafrost increases the chances of landslides.
