Trump trade, immigration policies clouding World Cup preparations
When the United States, Mexico and Canada launched their joint bid for the 2026 World Cup in the shadow of the Statue of Liberty, the prevailing mood was unmistakeably upbeat.
Peace, love and harmony: three countries joining forces in a "United Bid" to roll out the welcome mat for the most popular sporting carnival on the planet, a beacon of hope in a polarised world.
"We don't believe sport can solve all the issues in the world," US Soccer chief Sunil Gulati told an audience at a Manhattan skyscraper.
"But ... we believe this is a hugely positive signal and symbol of what we can do together in unifying people, especially in our three countries."
Fast forward eight years, and the soaring optimism that accompanied the bid's launch in 2017 has run into some stiff geopolitical headwinds, the re-election of President Donald Trump casting a pall of uncertainty over preparations for the event in ways that few could have imagined.
While Trump has been a staunch backer of the World Cup from the outset, the US leader has nevertheless taken a combative stance to co-hosts Mexico and Canada since returning to the White House, from trade wars to border crackdowns, while simultaneously calling for Canada to become the "cherished 51st state" of the US.
That in turn has led to Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney vowing to pivot away from the US, declaring in March that "the old relationship we had with the United States -- based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation — is over."
- 'Tension's a good thing' -
Trump, who enjoys a close friendship with Gianni Infantino, the president of world football's governing body FIFA, the organisers of the World Cup, has laughed off suggestions that trade turmoil could impact the tournament.
"Tension's a good thing, I think it makes it much more exciting," Trump said in March when asked how his administration's tariffs against Canada and Mexico might affect the World Cup.
Trump's policies, though, already appear to be hurting US tourism, with hotel search site Trivago last month reporting double-digit percentage declines in bookings to the US from visitors from Japan, Canada and Mexico.
Figures from the US government's National Travel and Tourism Office released in April found an 11.6% decline in visits to the US from overseas in March compared to a year earlier.
Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College in Northampton, Massachussetts whose books include "Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup", believes Trump's economic policies could reduce the number of international fans travelling to the World Cup.
But, Zimbalist added, "in terms of the actual playing of the games, the tariffs don't affect athletes."
"So unless the political situation internationally deteriorates further and people decide to boycott the games in large numbers, I wouldn't anticipate a very large impact," he told AFP.
- 'Seamless experience' for fans? -
Other commentators have questioned whether World Cup fans will be deterred by the Trump administration's hardline border crackdown, which has seen visitors from countries including France, Germany, Australia and Canada either turned away at the border or subjected to harsh interrogation and detention.
"Will soccer fans really want to crisscross our borders right now — and be squinted at by guards simply because they speak a Romance language or risk being held on a cold floor in a detention cage?," Washington Post columnist Sally Jenkins asked recently.
The Trump administration's 2026 World Cup Task Force last month insisted all fans would be welcome, saying football supporters could look forward to a "seamless experience" when visiting the US.
Vice President JD Vance though cautioned that foreign visitors would have to leave at the end of the tournament.
"We'll have visitors, probably from close to 100 countries," said Vance, the vice-chair of the World Cup task force.
"We want them to come. We want them to celebrate. But when the time is up, they'll have to go home."
John Zerafa, a Britain-based sports communications strategist, believes the Trump administration may need to "short circuit" current visa processing wait times in order to facilitate large numbers of foreign fans at the World Cup.
"I think the US and the Trump administration will go out of their way to try and make that process as smooth as possible," Zerafa told AFP.
"But there's also the other part of how that stacks with the MAGA agenda and closing borders. There's a real dichotomy there for Trump and the MAGA base -- you're letting the world in but at the same time you're trying to shut the world out," Zerafa added.
"Those two things are very difficult to co-exist, and which one is going to win the day? I can certainly envisage examples of fans applying for tickets, but not being granted visas. And you only need a couple of those stories to emerge in the runup to the World Cup to start painting a difficult backdrop for FIFA and the US."
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Mr. Trump's implication was that unlike Mr. Kennedy, Ms. Gabbard did not have what it took to succeed in politics. Image Ms. Gabbard with Mr. Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tucker Carlson during a campaign event in Georgia in October. Credit... Kenny Holston/The New York Times And soon after her swearing-in, he began to complain about her effectiveness. At the same time, Mr. Trump — long mistrustful of the intelligence community — questioned whether there needed to be an Office of the Director of National Intelligence at all. A senior intelligence official said Ms. Gabbard had overseen a 25 percent cut in the size of her office. And Ms. Gabbard has repeatedly told people in the White House that she is willing to be the last director of national intelligence, according to an official. The office, Ms. Gabbard said, could be reabsorbed into the C.I.A., or become something akin to the National Security Council, a bare-bones oversight group. At least for a time, the kind of foreign policy restraint Ms. Gabbard favors appeared to gain traction this spring. In White House discussions about Israel and Iran, Ms. Gabbard raised the range of possible consequences of an Israeli strike against Iran, saying it could trigger a wider conflict that brought in the United States. Vice President JD Vance, at times also a skeptic of military intervention, made similar arguments and was among those who supported Mr. Trump's impulse to initially try to negotiate a deal with Iran. As the C.I.A. delivered intelligence reports that Israel intended to strike Iran regardless, Mr. Trump and senior aides became more publicly supportive of the Israeli campaign. Ms. Gabbard did not attend a key meeting at Camp David, where Mr. Ratcliffe presented assessments about Iran's nuclear program. Ms. Gabbard, according to officials, was on Army Reserve duty. Other people with knowledge of the matter have said she was not invited. (Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Ms. Gabbard had met daily with Mr. Trump and his team.) Then on Tuesday, Mr. Trump contradicted Ms. Gabbard in public. After the Israeli strikes began, a journalist on Air Force One asked Mr. Trump about Ms. Gabbard's testimony in March that Iran had not decided to make a nuclear bomb. 'I don't care what she said,' Mr. Trump said. 'I think they were very close to having it.' He made similar comments on Friday. Image Mr. Trump, aboard Air Force One this week, contradicted Ms. Gabbard's assessment of Iran's nuclear program. Credit... Kenny Holston/The New York Times An official from Ms. Gabbard's office said her position was not at odds with Mr. Trump's. In her testimony, Ms. Gabbard reported the consensus opinion of the intelligence community: that Iran's supreme leader had not authorized the country to build a nuclear weapon. But Ms. Gabbard had also noted Iran's large stocks of enriched uranium and a shift in tone that was 'likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus.' But Mr. Trump's Air Force One remark came off as a rebuke. To a certain extent, some officials said, courting Mr. Trump's displeasure is a hazard of any intelligence job in his administration. Mr. Trump believes the intelligence community undermined him in his first term, and his long-held skepticism that it is part of a disloyal deep state continues. Ms. Gabbard, when briefing Mr. Trump, presents a range of options and assessments. But it is difficult to talk about the findings of spy agencies and not raise Mr. Trump's ire, the official said. Ms. Gabbard's most important job as director of national intelligence is overseeing, and delivering, the president's daily intelligence brief. But the brief is actually produced a few miles from her office at the C.I.A., and many of those working on the document are detailed from the agency. Ms. Gabbard announced internally last month that she would physically move the production of the brief to her headquarters, known as Liberty Crossing. Within the administration, several senior officials saw it as a way to try to enhance her own relevance at a time when Mr. Trump was questioning the relevance of the office. Others said it was an expensive decision that would be logistically difficult to carry out. Ultimately, the White House put the move on pause, according to multiple people briefed on the matter. Ms. Gabbard has influential defenders inside and outside the government. Mr. Vance, seen as the most senior voice for a less hawkish, more restrained foreign policy, issued a long social media post defending the administration's support of Israel's attack on Iran. He added to that a message supporting Ms. Gabbard. He also released a statement calling her a 'patriot.' Her supporters insist that she remains relevant and that, over time, her skepticism of American intervention in Ukraine and caution on military action against Iran will once more prevail. The possible delay of any decision by Mr. Trump to strike Iran represents an opportunity for diplomacy and critics of American military intervention to make the case for restraint, some of Ms. Gabbard's supporters said. Olivia C. Coleman, a spokeswoman for Ms. Gabbard's office, dismissed the reports of dissatisfaction or tensions with the White House as 'lies made up by bored, irrelevant anonymous sources with nothing better to do than sow fake division.' 'The director,' Ms. Coleman said, 'remains focused on her mission: providing accurate and actionable intelligence to the president, cleaning up the deep state and keeping the American people safe, secure and free.'
