Iran finds itself in difficult end game with Israel, Trump

Iran is finding itself in a difficult end game in its fight with Israel, with no calvary coming to support it.
Israel now has control of the skies over Tehran, and public discussions on an attack on the Fordow nuclear facility are moving to the mainstream.
Such an event would require the involvement of the United States and the consent of President Trump, as B-2 bombers dropping bunker-busting bombs are the only way to destroy the capabilities of a plant hidden deep in an Iranian mountain.
It's not clear Trump will authorize that kind of direct involvement, which would risk pulling the U.S. into a deeper conflict.
But either way, Iran's regime is being confronted with existential questions.
'There's got to be a kind of chaos in both the IRGC and the Army,' said Elliott Abrams, U.S. Special Representative for Iran in the first Trump administration and senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
'There's been a lot of high-ranking officers killed. I don't know what orders they're getting from the top— they're getting hit in very significant ways every day,' Abrams said. 'So, is the command and control structure loosely intact or is it falling apart?'
Iran's path out of a conflict with Israel is unclear, unless it comes to the negotiating table with the U.S. in a way that is satisfactory to Trump. Russia is unlikely to offer its assistance to Tehran, nor are other nations in the Middle East, wary of being drawn into a conflict against a top U.S. ally.
'Iran doesn't seem to have fast friends,' said Fred Fleitz, vice chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security.
'I fear that Iran's leaders are simply too ideological and stubborn to make a compromise to end this war,' Fleitz added. 'But we're in a situation that no one had anticipated.'
Much depends on Trump, who before the war began was trying to get the two sides to agree to a deal at the negotiating table.
The U.S. president has continued to make moves that could prevent things from spinning further out of control.
For example, Trump reportedly cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against targeting Iran's supreme leader, though the Israeli has refused to rule that out.
Trump on Monday issued a warning for Iranians to evacuate Tehran as he departed the Group of Seven (G7) summit a day early. On his way back to Washington, Trump said he was interested in a 'real end' to the conflict, not just a cease-fire.
In the meantime, Israeli leaders and some top allies of Trump have ratcheted up their rhetoric.
Trump has stressed Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and on Tuesday he warned Tehran against targeting U.S. assets, saying 'we'll come down so hard, it'd be gloves off.'
He said he was considering sending Vice President J.D. Vance and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to negotiate with Iranians leaders, adding it 'depends on what happens when I get back' but that he's looking for 'better than a ceasefire.'
Vance, like Trump, is known for wanting to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars, though in a statement on X he also emphasized the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
'POTUS has been amazingly consistent, over 10 years, that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Over the last few months, he encouraged his foreign policy team to reach a deal with the Iranians to accomplish this goal,' Vance said in the statement on X.
The White House on Tuesday morning also highlighted more than a dozen instances where Trump said Iran could not obtain a nuclear weapon, another rhetoric signal it may be laying the groundwork for more aggressive action.
Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Middle East in Trump's first term, said Trump may be thinking of regime change.
'I think it's clear that in order to achieve this… goal of the war, which is complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program, regime change might have to occur in order for that to happen,' she said.
'Their capabilities are certainly dramatically diminished, between the assassinations of a lot of the senior military leadership and intelligence leadership on the first night of the Israeli bombardment— they took out a lot of the leadership of the IRGC— just full stop,' she said. 'Those combination of things already has made it difficult for the command and control to function the way that it was meant to and by difficult, I mean sometimes insurmountable.'
Abrams predicted that 'the regime could collapse, but I think it's more likely that [it], in essence, gives up.'
He predicted the supreme leader realizes 'I've got to agree to the end of the nuclear weapons program or the whole thing will fall on our heads,' Abrams said.
'Trump is not saying ceasefire. Trump is saying we need a deal that solves this problem. And again, by that I think, does not mean regime change. He means the true end to the Iranian nuclear program,' he said. 'I don't think this war ends certainly until the end of the weekend… my guess is less than two weeks, another week or 10 days.'

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

The Hill

35 minutes ago

• The Hill

The Latest: Macron says diplomats in Geneva will offer to negotiate with Iran

Israel and Iran exchanged strikes a week into their war Friday, while new diplomatic efforts appeared to be underway as Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Geneva for meetings with the European Union's top diplomat and counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Israel's military says it carried out airstrikes Friday targeting the areas around Kermanshah and Tabriz in western Iran. The military says 25 fighter jets struck 'missile storage and launch infrastructure components' Friday morning. A week of Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 657 people and wounded 2,037 others, the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists said Friday. Here's the latest: The British government says it is working with Israeli authorities to provide charter flights to evacuate U.K. nationals. The U.K. says the flights will leave from Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv once airspace reopens. The number of flights will depend on demand. Israel has closed the airport 'until further notice' amid its week-old war with Iran, stranding tens of thousands of Israelis abroad, and moved the jets of the country's three airlines to Cyprus. Britain has evacuated family members of embassy staff from Israel but has not advised U.K. nationals in Israel and the Palestinian territories to leave the country. Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that for those who want to leave, land routes out of Israel remain open and British staff will provide support, including transport to nearby airports for onward commercial flights. Hundreds of supporters of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah gathered in Beirut's southern suburbs after Friday afternoon prayers to demonstrate in support of Tehran in the ongoing Israel-Iran war. Demonstrators carried the Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian flags as well as that of Hezbollah, and chanted 'death to America' and 'death to Israel.' Some also chanted pledges of allegiance to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is revered as religious authority by many Shiite Muslims. Hezbollah suffered severe losses in a war with Israel that ended with a US-brokered ceasefire in November and has so far remained on the sidelines the Iran-Israel war. French President Emmanuel Macron said European top diplomats will make a 'comprehensive, diplomatic and technical offer of negotiation' to Iran in Geneva on Friday as a key response to the 'threat' represented by Iran's nuclear program. 'No one can seriously believe that this threat can be met with (Israel's) current operations alone. Why? Because there are some plants that are highly protected and because today, no one knows exactly where's the uranium enriched to 60%. So we need to regain control on (Iran's nuclear) program through technical expertise and negotiation,' Macron said. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot will coordinate with U.K. and German counterparts in Geneva before they meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. 'It's absolutely essential to prioritize a return to substantial negotiations, including nuclear negotiations to move towards zero (uranium) enrichment, ballistic negotiations to limit Iran's activities and capabilities and the financing of all terrorist groups and destabilization of the region that Iran has been carrying out for several years,' Macron insisted. Macron also reiterated his call for Israel's strikes on energy and civilian infrastructures and on civilian populations in Iran to be stopped. 'There's no justification for that,' he said. Thousands of supporters of the influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr took to the streets on Friday in Sadr City, on the outskirts of Baghdad, in response to a call by al-Sadr to show support for Iran in its conflict with Israel. The demonstration began after Friday prayers with protesters wearing white burial shrouds in a symbolic gesture of readiness to sacrifice. Some burned Israeli and U.S. flags. The protest comes during escalating regional tensions. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have so far largely stayed out of the fray in the Israel-Iran war but have threatened to attack U.S. forces and interests in Iraq and the region if Washington launches direct attacks on Iran. Italy is organizing special ground convoys and flights to help Italians leave Iran and Israel. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani convened Middle East ambassadors in Rome on Friday to discuss the safety and needs of Italian embassy personnel and other Italians in the region. The foreign ministry said ground convoys were being organized to bring Italians out of Iran to neighboring countries. A special charter flight was scheduled for Sunday to depart from Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt to bring out any Italians from Israel, where the main airport remains closed until further notice. Israel's military said it carried out airstrikes Friday targeting the areas around Kermanshah and Tabriz in western Iran. The military said 25 fighter jets struck 'missile storage and launch infrastructure components' Friday morning. There had been reports of anti-aircraft fire in the areas. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the losses, though it has not discussed the damage done so far to its military in the weeklong war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Moscow is 'extremely concerned' by the tensions in the Middle East. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the annual event designed to showcase Russia's economic prowess and court investors, Peskov said the Middle East 'right now is plunging into the abyss of instability and war.' 'And the war that we are witnessing is fraught with geographic expansion, the involvement of many participants and unpredictable consequences,' Peskov said. 'We are not on the other side of the ocean, this region is directly on our border. And in addition to the fact that this situation inevitably has a negative impact on the global economy, on energy markets and so on, it is, of course, potentially dangerous for us.' Peskov added 'there is always hope and always a possibility for diplomatic efforts,' and stressed Moscow has 'condemned the escalation of violence in the region' and called for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. He noted, however, that 'for now, Israel's desire is to continue the hostilities, at least that is how they officially declare their intentions.' Iran's capital experienced an unusually quiet weekend on Friday, as many residents had left the capital following the Israeli airstrikes that began last week. Streets were empty with little traffic. Shops stood closed. Those who remain in the city seem to largely be choosing to stay indoors as the war between Israel and Iran continues. Iran's foreign minister says his country is not seeking negotiations with anyone as long as Israel continues its strikes on Iran. 'In the current situation, as the Zionist regime's attacks continue, we are not seeking negotiations with anyone,' said Abbas Araghchi during an interview aired Friday by Iranian state television. He added: 'I believe that as a result of this resistance (by Iran), we will gradually see countries distancing themselves from the aggression carried out by the regime, and calls for ending this war have already begun, and they will only grow stronger.' Spanish citizens who requested to be evacuated from Iran landed safely in Armenia, Spain's Foreign Minister José Albares said Thursday night. They would soon be flown to Spain, Albares said on X. Israeli airstrikes reached into the Iranian city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early Friday, Iranian media reported. Social media video posted online appeared to show explosions around the city. The semiofficial Fars news agency reported local air defense systems were firing into the night sky against the Israelis. Ahead of the strikes, the Israeli military put out a warning urging the public to flee the area around Rasht's Industrial City, which sits a few kilometers (miles) southwest of the city's downtown. The Israelis did not immediately describe what they sought to destroy in the area. However, with Iran's internet being shut off to the outside world, it was unclear how many people in Iran would be able to see the message. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot spoke by phone with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday evening. A French diplomatic official said Barrot detailed the purposes of the Geneva meeting and Rubio 'stressed the U.S. was ready for direct contact with the Iranians at any time.' The official, who was not allowed to speak publicly on the issue, said they 'jointly stressed the threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program to Israel, the region and Europe.' Anti-aircraft batteries began firing Friday morning in Iran's capital, Tehran. It wasn't immediately clear what they were firing at. A key security adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now in stable condition, a week after being seriously wounded in an Israeli airstrike, a media outlet close to him reported Friday. Nour News quoted Rear Adm. Ali Shamkhani as saying: 'I am alive and ready to give my life away.' The International Atomic Energy Agency, in an update Friday, said an Israeli strike at the Arak heavy water reactor also damaged key buildings there, 'including the distillation unit' there. That makes the heavy water at the site. An Iranian aircraft bearing a call sign associated with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is now airborne over Turkey. The Airbus A321 of Meraj Airlines took off from the Turkish city of Van, near the Iranian border, flight-tracking data from FlightRadar24 showed. It bore the call sign IRAN05, which Araghchi uses on his official travel. Iran did not immediately acknowledge his departure, though it typically only does so hours later. Araghchi is due for talks with European diplomats in Geneva on Friday, the first face-to-face negotiations he has conducted since the Israeli airstrikes began June 13. Germany's foreign minister says there is a chance of avoiding further escalation in the conflict if Tehran shows 'serious and transparent readiness' to refrain from developing nuclear weapons. 'It is our commitment once again to undertake a very intensive attempt to dissuade Iran permanently from pursuing such plans,' Johann Wadephul said in a podcast released by broadcaster MDR Friday. 'If there is serious and transparent readiness by Iran to refrain from this, then there is a real chance of preventing a further escalation of this conflict, and for that every conversation makes sense.' Wadephul plans to meet Iran's foreign minister in Geneva Friday along with his French, British and EU counterparts. Wadephul said U.S. officials support the plan to hold talks, 'so I think Iran should now know that it should conduct these talks with a new seriousness and reliability.' The Israeli military said it has destroyed missile systems and radar installations around Isfahan. That corresponds to the sound of anti-aircraft fire heard in the area of Isfahan into Friday morning. Iran has not offered any acknowledgment so far of its military losses in the war. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Australia say they have closed their embassies in Tehran. The Slovak Foreign Ministry said any remaining diplomats and staffers of the embassy are leaving Iran on Friday. Australia's Foreign Ministry said it was evacuating staff and their families due to the 'deteriorating security environment.' It also urged Australian citizens still in Iran to leave quickly. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and they agreed to work 'closely' to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and to pursue peace. 'There is an opportunity … over the next two weeks for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy,' Wong said from Adelaide on Friday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims the U.S. might use nuclear weapons in Iran as 'speculation' in comments to state news agency Tass on Friday morning. 'There is a lot of speculation now,' Tass quoted Peskov as saying. 'Such a turn of events would be catastrophic, but there is so much speculation that it is impossible to really comment on it.' British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the 'situation in the Middle East remains perilous,' after meeting Thursday at the White House with his U.S. counterpart, Marco Rubio, and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. 'We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon,' Lammy wrote in a post on X.

Boston Globe

39 minutes ago

• Boston Globe

Pro-Palestinian activists say they damaged planes on a UK air force base

The activists left the base without being detained, Palestine Action said. The group said in a statement that 'despite publicly condemning the Israeli government, Britain continues to send military cargo, fly spy planes over Gaza and refuel US/Israeli fighter jets.' It called the U.K. 'an active participant in the Gaza genocide and war crimes across the Middle East.' Britain's Ministry of Defense confirmed the incident, saying: 'We strongly condemn this vandalism of Royal Air Force assets.' Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the vandalism 'disgraceful' in a post on X. Advertisement The government said two planes were being checked for damage, and that the vandalism had not stopped any planned aircraft movements or operations. 'A full security review is underway at Brize Norton,' Starmer's office said. 'We are reviewing security across the whole defense estate.' Planes from Brize Norton, 70 miles northwest of London, regularly fly to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, Britain's main air base for operations in the Middle East. The U.K. has sent more Typhoon fighter jets and Voyager tankers to Cyprus since the Israel-Iran war started a week ago for what Starmer called 'contingency support.' Advertisement Iran has threatened to attack US, French and British bases in the region if those countries help Israel fend off Iranian strikes. Thames Valley Police said in a statement that it had 'received a report of people gaining access to RAF Brize Norton and causing criminal damage.' Officers were working with staff at the base and the Ministry of Defense Police to arrest the perpetrators, the force said.

CNBC

40 minutes ago

• CNBC

Europe and Iran to hold talks as Trump sets two-week deadline for U.S. strikes decision

Top U.K., France and Germany diplomats are pushing for eleventh-hour diplomacy with Iran in Geneva on Friday, as Washington weighs the possibility of joining Israel's military campaign against Tehran over the next two weeks. Iran and Israel have been trading fire for the past week, in the latest climax of tensions that have been simmering since the Tehran-backed Hamas' terrorist attack against the Jewish state in October 2023. Israel has since been fighting a war on multiple battles against the Palestinian militant group and other Iranian proxies, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi — which Tehran says are acting independently. The conflict has risked further escalation since the start of the week, amid signals that the U.S. — historically a close ally and weapons supplier of Israel — could intervene militarily against Tehran. "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," U.S. President Donald Trump said, according to a statement read out on Thursday by White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. Following a Thursday meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy said the three "discussed how a deal could avoid a deepening conflict" and that "a window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution." "There is no room for negotiations with the U.S. until Israeli aggression stops," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is expected to attend talks in Geneva, was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday, according to Reuters. Trump's aversion to Iran's nuclear program has been a central point of his statesmanship across both mandates. The White House leader pulled the U.S. out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first presidency, tightening the noose on Iran's coffers through a string of stringent financial and oil-linked sanctions. Self-proclaimed 'peacemaker' Trump has so far fruitlessly pursued a second nuclear program deal since the start of his second term, initially expressing a preference for a diplomatic breakthrough — the likes of which European officials are now hoping to strike. "In the United States, [there are] many political officials who are convinced that we must not once more make the errors of the past. What we saw in Libya, what we saw in Afghanistan, what we saw in Iraq, we do not want to see reproduced," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in a TV interview with French media, according to a CNBC translation. Notably, the U.K., France and Germany — alongside Iran's allies Russia and China — were previously involved in the JCPOA with Washington and Tehran. Markets have been rattled by the possibility of the conflict destabilizing the wider oil-rich Middle East and potentially drawing in the world's largest economy, spurring investors on a flight to safe-haven assets and broader focus on defense companies and initiatives.