Financial markets weigh up conflict
Samantha Donovan: Investment analysts say the Israel-Iran conflict is seeing an uneasy calm on global financial markets. AMP's Shane Oliver helps manage billions of dollars for the superannuation firm AMP. He's told our business correspondent David Taylor that calm could disappear if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical sea passage for the world's oil supply.
Shane Oliver: The financial markets seem fairly relaxed about things. There was the initial knee-jerk reaction a week or so ago when the news struck that Israel had hit targets in Iran and that Iran was retaliating. So, you saw this initial knee-jerk reaction. Oil prices sort of rose from about $68 a barrel to $74 or thereabouts. Share markets came down a bit. Ever since then, they've sort of been treading water waiting to see what happens. Of course, at the back of everyone's mind, there's always this fear that we're going to see a rerun of what happened in 1973 or 1979. But most of the time, that doesn't happen. This time around, though, there's probably a bit more nervousness simply because Iran has potentially getting closer to nuclear capability, nuclear weapons capability, and of course, Israel is determined to wipe that out. So that's why the situation is a lot more tense this time around. But I think investors are still thinking, well, maybe it'll turn out OK and be a non-event.
David Taylor: When Donald Trump says via the White House press secretary that he's simply going to make it as he wants an extension for two weeks, he's going to make a decision within two weeks or at the end of two weeks, you're the ANP's strategist for a lot of money, a lot of investments. When you hear something like that, what's your thought? Is your thought that he's stalling or is your thought that markets simply just have to wait day by day as to what's going to happen next?
Shane Oliver: Yeah, I guess his eyes done a very good job in terms of Iran, got the situation to a point where they can almost wipe out Iran's nuclear capability. And so maybe he should take that point. On the other hand, he worries that it could just lead to a worse situation, retaliation by Iran against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil supplies flow on a daily basis, and that it might bog the US down in a longer-term conflict. So the fact that he's thinking about it, I think, is a good sign. By the same token, it may just be giving more time for Iran to come to the party and surrender unconditionally. So it could be about that. Or alternatively, it could just be giving more time for the Israelis and the US to prepare the situation to go into trying to take these strikes. But the fact that it's not happening rashly, I think, is a good thing that he is thinking about it. So that gives me a little bit of comfort. And that's, I think, why share markets have ended the week, at least in the Australian time zone, reasonably in a reasonably calm mode. You haven't seen this sort of freefall that might have occurred if we'd gotten up in the morning and found that the US had struck Iran.
David Taylor: But I guess that's a possibility still.
Shane Oliver: It's still out there. It's still a possibility. I mean, the best outcome for everyone is Iran comes to the table and says, yeah, we're going to negotiate. We'll give you clear access to inspect nuclear facilities to make sure that we're not building nuclear weapons. That's probably the best outcome for everyone. The situation in the Middle East settles down. Oil prices fall back to where they were a few weeks back. And we move on to the next thing, back to focusing on tariffs. But it looks like we could be in for a period of uncertainty regarding this, not only whether the US will act, but when they do, how Iran then responds. And this could take some time before it's finally resolved. And then if Iran does respond and disrupt shipping, they don't have to block the whole of the Strait of Hormuz. They just have to provide enough of a threat to stop shipping going through there. Then how long it takes for the Americans to clear the situation again and remove the threat. And all of that could take quite a while.
Samantha Donovan: That's AMP's Head of Investment Strategy, Shane Oliver. He was speaking with our business correspondent, David Taylor.
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The Advertiser
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Iran says no to nuclear talks, UN urges restraint
Iran says it will not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tries to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said on Friday it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iranian air defences were activated on Friday evening, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service. Israel's envoy to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks "until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled". Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani called for Security Council action and said Tehran was alarmed by reports that the US may join the war. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned against attacks on nuclear facilities and called for maximum restraint. "Armed attack on nuclear facilities... could result in radioactive releases with great consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the state which has been attacked," Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Security Council. Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities but that it wants to avoid any nuclear disaster. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, also speaking at the world body's Security Council, said the Iran-Israel conflict could "ignite a fire no one can control" and called on all parties to "give peace a chance". Russia and China demanded immediate de-escalation. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on US involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran on Friday with top aides at the White House, a US official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he later arrived in Geneva for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes". Israel's Foreign Minister Saar, speaking in Haifa, said he was very sceptical about Iran's intentions. "We know from the record of Iran they are not negotiating honestly," he said. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying its longtime enemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. The dead include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed in Iranian missile attacks, according to authorities. Reuters could not independently verify casualty figures for either side. Western and regional officials say Israel is trying to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran says it will not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tries to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said on Friday it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iranian air defences were activated on Friday evening, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service. Israel's envoy to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks "until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled". Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani called for Security Council action and said Tehran was alarmed by reports that the US may join the war. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned against attacks on nuclear facilities and called for maximum restraint. "Armed attack on nuclear facilities... could result in radioactive releases with great consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the state which has been attacked," Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Security Council. Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities but that it wants to avoid any nuclear disaster. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, also speaking at the world body's Security Council, said the Iran-Israel conflict could "ignite a fire no one can control" and called on all parties to "give peace a chance". Russia and China demanded immediate de-escalation. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on US involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran on Friday with top aides at the White House, a US official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he later arrived in Geneva for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes". Israel's Foreign Minister Saar, speaking in Haifa, said he was very sceptical about Iran's intentions. "We know from the record of Iran they are not negotiating honestly," he said. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying its longtime enemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. The dead include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed in Iranian missile attacks, according to authorities. Reuters could not independently verify casualty figures for either side. Western and regional officials say Israel is trying to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran says it will not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tries to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said on Friday it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iranian air defences were activated on Friday evening, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service. Israel's envoy to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks "until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled". Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani called for Security Council action and said Tehran was alarmed by reports that the US may join the war. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned against attacks on nuclear facilities and called for maximum restraint. "Armed attack on nuclear facilities... could result in radioactive releases with great consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the state which has been attacked," Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Security Council. Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities but that it wants to avoid any nuclear disaster. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, also speaking at the world body's Security Council, said the Iran-Israel conflict could "ignite a fire no one can control" and called on all parties to "give peace a chance". Russia and China demanded immediate de-escalation. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on US involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran on Friday with top aides at the White House, a US official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he later arrived in Geneva for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes". Israel's Foreign Minister Saar, speaking in Haifa, said he was very sceptical about Iran's intentions. "We know from the record of Iran they are not negotiating honestly," he said. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying its longtime enemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. The dead include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed in Iranian missile attacks, according to authorities. Reuters could not independently verify casualty figures for either side. Western and regional officials say Israel is trying to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran says it will not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tries to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said on Friday it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iranian air defences were activated on Friday evening, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service. Israel's envoy to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks "until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled". Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani called for Security Council action and said Tehran was alarmed by reports that the US may join the war. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned against attacks on nuclear facilities and called for maximum restraint. "Armed attack on nuclear facilities... could result in radioactive releases with great consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the state which has been attacked," Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Security Council. Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities but that it wants to avoid any nuclear disaster. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, also speaking at the world body's Security Council, said the Iran-Israel conflict could "ignite a fire no one can control" and called on all parties to "give peace a chance". Russia and China demanded immediate de-escalation. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on US involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran on Friday with top aides at the White House, a US official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he later arrived in Geneva for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes". Israel's Foreign Minister Saar, speaking in Haifa, said he was very sceptical about Iran's intentions. "We know from the record of Iran they are not negotiating honestly," he said. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying its longtime enemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. The dead include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed in Iranian missile attacks, according to authorities. Reuters could not independently verify casualty figures for either side. Western and regional officials say Israel is trying to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Israel-Iran conflict LIVE updates: Speculation continues to grow over US involvement; Iranian Foreign Minister says US ‘partner to Israeli crime'
Go to latest What you need to know this morning Good morning. Welcome to our ongoing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East as the Israel-Iran war enters its second week. Here's a quick overview of the latest events: Israel and Iran launched more missile strikes overnight Australian time, with Israel bombing sites across Iran, including in the capital Tehran and at Rasht on the Caspian Sea. Iranian missiles struck Beersheba and the port city of Haifa. Iran says it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while it's under attack by Israel. Israel's envoy to the UN, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks 'until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled'. Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong joined demands for Iran to stop its nuclear weapons program and come to the negotiating table within the two-week deadline set by Trump. Australia shut its embassy in Tehran, and sent defence personnel and assets to the region to help evacuate Australians. Earlier on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he would decide whether the US would join military action against Iran within two weeks. 6.16am Israel, Iran trade strikes amid new EU diplomatic efforts Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the US considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. Haifa is home to Israel's busiest seaport and a naval base. Fars news agency quoted an Iranian military spokesman as saying Tehran's missile and drone attacks on Friday had used long-range and ultra-heavy missiles against military sites, defence industries and command and control centres. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service.
The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Israel-Iran conflict LIVE updates: Speculation continues to grow over US involvement; Iranian Foreign Minister says US ‘partner to Israeli crime'
Go to latest What you need to know this morning Good morning. Welcome to our ongoing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East as the Israel-Iran war enters its second week. Here's a quick overview of the latest events: Israel and Iran launched more missile strikes overnight Australian time, with Israel bombing sites across Iran, including in the capital Tehran and at Rasht on the Caspian Sea. Iranian missiles struck Beersheba and the port city of Haifa. Iran says it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while it's under attack by Israel. Israel's envoy to the UN, Danny Danon, told the UN Security Council his country would not stop its attacks 'until Iran's nuclear threat is dismantled'. Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong joined demands for Iran to stop its nuclear weapons program and come to the negotiating table within the two-week deadline set by Trump. Australia shut its embassy in Tehran, and sent defence personnel and assets to the region to help evacuate Australians. Earlier on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he would decide whether the US would join military action against Iran within two weeks. 6.16am Israel, Iran trade strikes amid new EU diplomatic efforts Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the US considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets, including missile production sites, a research body it said was involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. The Israeli military later said they had struck surface-to-air missile batteries in southwestern Iran as part of efforts to achieve air superiority over the country. Explosions were heard in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province and at least four people there were killed, IRNA news agency reported. At least five people were injured when Israel hit a five-storey building in Tehran housing a bakery and a hairdresser's, Fars news agency reported. Iran fired missiles at Beersheba in southern Israel and Haifa in the north, causing damage to an Ottoman-era mosque, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. A foreign ministry video also showed extensive damage to a nearby high-rise building that houses a branch of Israel's Interior Ministry. Haifa is home to Israel's busiest seaport and a naval base. Fars news agency quoted an Iranian military spokesman as saying Tehran's missile and drone attacks on Friday had used long-range and ultra-heavy missiles against military sites, defence industries and command and control centres. About 20 missiles were fired in those latest Iranian strikes, an Israeli military official said, and at least two people were hurt, according to the Israeli ambulance service.
