Weak Club World Cup, U.S. Consumer Worry May Extend Vivid's Slump
If you're interested in buying tickets for the upcoming FIFA Club World Cup, which starts Saturday, you're in luck.
A review of the ticket listings on FIFA's official primary ticket seller Ticketmaster Wednesday showed plenty of seats available for nearly all of the 28 matches in its first week. The only packed houses come in Miami, where three of the city's four games are sold out or have only $1,000 club seats available; seeing Lionel Messi's Inter Miami, Real Madrid or Bayern Munchen will cost you. Otherwise, there are plenty of seats starting at $33.45 in multiple venues. (FIFA did not respond to a request for comment on Club World Cup ticketing.)
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The apparently tepid demand for the Club World Cup only exacerbates what has been a tough 2025 for ticket-selling platforms. Much of that comes from a combination of eroding consumer sentiment, stock market upheavals and even an unannounced tweak by Google on performance marketing and advertising, which resulted in higher costs for ticket sellers and poor data confidence across the industry.
Bearing the brunt of the negativity is Vivid Seats. The publicly traded ticket reseller has seen its share price fall 61% this year to under $2. It's easily the worst-performing security in the 40-company Sportico Sports Stock Index for 2025 and is one of the worst among all major stocks. It sits just behind Sarepta Therapeutics, which had a drug trial setback, and Newsmax, a right-wing information outfit which had an IPO in March, according to data from FinanceCharts.com.
'Economic and political volatility has impacted consumer sentiment, and this uncertainty can also impact how and when artists and rights holders go to market,' Stanley Chia, Vivid CEO, said on a call with analysts last month. 'While we previously anticipated continued competitive intensity, the additional variability across the global economy, potential consumer softness and atypical changes across the performance marketing landscape have combined to create a particularly broad range of potential outcomes.'
Vivid suspended giving guidance for the rest of the year last month, a move that extended a long downtrend in its shares. Valued at almost $2 billion in its 2021 SPAC merger that put it on the Nasdaq Stock market, Vivid is now worth less than $250 million. The company declined to comment for this article.
But at least Vivid made it to the stock market, unlike competitors SeatGeek and StubHub. In a sign of trouble with investors industry-wide, SeatGeek reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO last year but hasn't followed through. (Companies can file a preliminary prospectus with the Securities & Exchange Commission for review before officially deciding to try to go public.) StubHub filed for its own IPO this spring, but reportedly has canceled its roadshow for attracting institutional investors. Neither company responded to requests for comment.
If it were to go public, StubHub would probably be the preferred stock for investors looking for secondary ticketing exposure, given its standing as the largest secondary market ticketing company.
'Stubhub, Google, consumer challenges … not easy out there for Vivid,' Ryan Sigdahl, who covers Vivid for Craig-Hallum Capital Group, said in an email.
StubHub says it is the largest secondary market ticket seller globally, netting 2024 revenue of $1.77 billion. By comparison, Vivid made $775 million in sales, which is about what Live Nation makes from ticketing in one quarter, though it's not clear how much of that is primary sales, like the FIFA World Cup, and how much is secondary. SeatGeek sales data isn't disclosed, but the company expected to have $1.2 billion revenue in 2025, according to information that emerged as part of its failed 2022 merger with RedBall SPAC.
Besides size, Vivid's headwinds also include a heavier reliance on North American sales—it only opened a European division this year—and it seems to be behind on exclusive deals with sports organizations. StubHub, for instance, sold 30% of the Yankees seats for the 2024 World Series either through its direct issuance deal with the team or through its resale platform. SeatGeek, meanwhile, has a deal with at least one college athletic department that locks in resales only to its platform. Based on comments made to analysts in 2024, it appears Vivid's first exclusive partnership came last year for the College Basketball Crown tournament.
The larger issue is the currently weak U.S. market for tickets. Vivid sees it being flat to down after the hit to consumer confidence caused by Donald Trump's tariffs. Vivid entered the year seeing mid- to high-single-digit growth, while Ticketmaster missed on ticket sale volumes in its first quarter, with sales in sports and other non-concert events down 9%, according to Sigdahl. Live Nation, whose business is integrated with owning and operating venues for concerts tours, is up 11% this year, mainly on strength outside the U.S.
Not all is lost for Vivid, however, according to Sigdahl, who has a 'Buy' rating for Vivid right now. 'We continue to believe that the longer-term, normalized earnings power of the business is much higher than what it is today,' Sigdahl said in a research note.
But Vivid's future may lay as part of a bigger player's portfolio, he suggested. 'Vivid's unique assets/fundamental profile could present takeout potential for a strategic or financial buyer.'
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