
Stocks struggle, oil up for 3rd week as Trump weighs US action on Iran
SYDNEY, June 20 (Reuters) - Share markets in Asia struggled for direction on Friday as fears of a potential U.S. attack on Iran hung over markets, while oil prices were poised to rise for a third straight week on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict.
Overnight, Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, and Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel as a week-old air war intensified with no sign yet of an exit strategy from either side.
The White House said President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran war. The U.S. President is facing uproar from some of his MAGA base over a possible strike on Iran.
Brent fell 2% on Friday to $77.22 per barrel, but is still headed for a strong weekly gain of 4%, following a 12% surge the previous week.
"The 'two-week deadline' is a tactic Trump has used in other key decisions, including those involving Russia and Ukraine, and tariffs," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
"Often, these deadlines expire without concrete action, (similar to TACO), and there is certainly a risk of this happening again, given the complexities of the situation."
Still, a cautious mood prevailed in markets with Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures both 0.3% lower in Asia. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, offering little direction for Asia.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab edged up 0.1% but was set for a weekly drop of 1%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab slipped 0.2%.
China's blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab rose 0.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab gained 0.5%, after the central bank held the benchmark lending rates steady as widely expected.
In the currency markets, the dollar was on the back foot again, slipping 0.2% to 145.17 yen after data showed Japan's core inflation hit a two-year high in May, which kept pressure on the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes.
Investors, however, see little prospects of a rate hike from the BOJ until December this year, which is a little over 50% priced in.
The U.S. bond market, which was also closed on Thursday, started trading in Asian hours on a subdued note. Ten-year Treasury bond yield was flat at 4.389%, while two-year yields slipped 2 basis points to 3.925%.
Overnight, the Swiss National Bank cut rates to zero and did not rule out going negative, while the Bank of England held policy steady but saw the need for further easing and Norway's central bank surprised everyone and cut rates for the first time since 2020.
Gold prices eased 0.2% to $3,363 an ounce, but were set for a weekly loss of 2%.
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Reuters
7 minutes ago
- Reuters
Thailand's economy teeters as political turmoil threatens recovery efforts
BANGKOK, June 20 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is already on the ropes. Consumption has remained tepid despite a government stimulus programme, few of its economic engines are firing, and uncertainty wrought by U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs means that the Thai economy could grow just over 1% this year. Now, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces a fresh challenge: a new round of political chaos that can bring down Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra or her ruling Pheu Thai party. "We are currently in a period of economic downturn, with many issues affecting us," Visit Limlurcha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told Reuters. "This could make things even more complicated." The most significant short-term concern is the passage of a 3.78 trillion baht ($115 billion) budget for the 2026 fiscal year, which starts on October 1, that must pass through parliament over the next few months. That process could get stalled if Paetongtarn, who is under siege for her handling of a festering border row with neighbouring Cambodia, dissolves parliament and triggers fresh elections. "If parliament is dissolved before the budget is passed, the process will be delayed significantly," said Prakit Siriwattanaket, managing director of Merchant Partners Asset Management. Thailand's economy has lagged regional peers as it struggles under high household debt and borrowing costs, and sluggish demand from China, which is also a key tourism market. It expanded 2.5% last year, and growth could be further halved this year due to U.S. tariffs, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month. Thailand's stock market (.SETI), opens new tab has been the worst performing bourse in Asia so far this year, down 23.4%. Industrial sentiment also hit its lowest in eight months in May, even as consumer confidence dropped to a 27-month low. There is a clear need to press ahead with government spending, which has dropped by over 38% annually during April-May 2025, OCBC economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng said in a report on Thursday, warning of a "double whammy" for the economy if both government expenditure and exports weaken. Amid the ongoing tumult, Paetongtarn may be able to hang on to her premiership and a coalition led by her Pheu Thai party could retain its majority, albeit in a weaker position compared to its previous grip on the parliament. Such an arrangement will prolong political instability and raise the spectre of street protests, which have been part of previous crises and could hit one of Thailand's key remaining economic engines: tourism. "I'm worried. I don't want the situation to cause people to take to the streets," Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, President of Thai Hotels Association, which represents around 1,000 hospitality establishments, told Reuters. "If they take to the streets, it will hit tourism." Activists - including those who have in the past agitated against Paetongtarn's father, the divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra - met on Friday to plan a major protest next week, and demanded the prime minister's resignation. A government lacking full authority may also struggle in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, which has threatened to impose a 36% tariff rate on imports from Thailand, said Natapon Khamthakrue, an analyst at Yuanta Securities. "The United States certainly would not want to talk to a government without full power or with few votes," he said. Some business chambers and analysts are, nonetheless, holding out hope that a political resolution can be found quickly, minimising damage to the Thai economy, which has been rattled by multiple coups in the last eight decades, including two against governments led by the Shinawatra family. "Although the economy is no stranger to political uncertainty," OCBC's economists said, "the timing could not be more inconvenient considering external headwinds." ($1 = 32.7800 baht)


Sky News
12 minutes ago
- Sky News
'Inflation and customer cutbacks' blamed for big dive in retail sales
Retail sales volumes suffered their largest monthly fall since December 2023 last month, according to official figures which suggest a link to rising bills. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 2.7% decline in the quantity of goods bought in May compared to the previous month. The body said its interaction with retailers suggested " inflation and customer cutbacks" accounted for the fall, which was across all categories, but led by food. The seasonally adjusted data - which reflects the effects of holidays - means that those for Easter are modified to give a clearer picture of sales trends. A poll of economists by the Reuters news agency had expected to see a decline in volumes of just 0.5% in May following April's growth of 1.3%. May was the month when households would have noticed the hit from the so-called 'awful April' above-inflation hikes to essential bills, including council tax, water, mobiles, broadband and energy. Retail sales growth had proved to be resilient this year until May but April brought a number of additional curveballs to confuse sentiment and place pressure on the economy generally. 2:01 Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff regime kicked in while Budget measures, including rises to minimum pay levels and employer national insurance contributions (NICs), also placed additional costs on businesses. Retail is the UK's largest private sector employer. It had threatened higher prices and hits to hiring and wage growth ahead of the tax take coming into effect. While the inflation picture for May was largely flat, the ONS reported last week employment data showing a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.6% in the three months to April. Figures from the taxman also showed a 109,000 decline in payrolled employment during May. Further data from the ONS on Friday revealed a £1.8bn jump in additional "compulsory social contributions" - largely made up of NICs - in May. It took the extra tax take to a record £30.2bn across April and May but borrowing still surged to £17.7bn last month, the second highest figure on record for May, the ONS said, as the chancellor bids to grow the economy within tight fiscal rules. Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of UK output. A closely-watched measure of consumer confidence covering June showed no rise in consumers' expectations for spending on so-called big ticket items. The GfK survey was taken after the UK's trade truce with the US but before Israel's air war with Iran began. That has pushed oil and natural gas prices up by double-digit percentage levels in under a week, threatening a new energy-led cost of living threat. It's another challenge that retailers, businesses more widely, and Rachel Reeves could do without. Thomas Pugh, economist at audit firm RSM UK, said: "Looking ahead to the budget in the autumn, the under performance of the economy and higher borrowing costs mean the chancellor may already have lost the £9.9bn of fiscal headroom that she clawed back in March. "Throw in the tough outlook for many government departments announced in the spending review and U-turns on welfare spending and the chancellor will probably have to announce some top-up tax increases after the summer."


Daily Mail
13 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Urgent warning to Aussies with a side hustle from UberEats delivery drivers to OnlyFans models
Australians working side hustle jobs are set to get a rude tax bill as the government cracks down on gig economy roles. The Australian Taxation Office is now directly contacting digital platforms to identify potential income taxpayers - meaning those with a side hustle can no longer hide. CPA Australia, which represents Certified Practising Accountants, warned the ATO's new sharing economy reporting regime was targeting everyone from social media influencers to food deliverers. Jenny Wong, the group's tax lead, said this meant Australians doing gig economy jobs with the likes of UberEats, DoorDash, Airtasker, YouTube and even OnlyFans risked a big tax bill if they failed to declare their income from these platforms. 'Until this year, individuals have been required to self-declare the income from their side-hustles,' she said. 'Now nothing will go under the radar. If you deliver food with DoorDash, work some casual jobs through Airtasker, or make content for Patreon, YouTube or OnlyFans, these sites are now reporting your earnings to the tax office. 'Though people might not consider earnings from digital platforms as income in the same way as their regular job, it is all viewed the same way by the ATO. 'Chances are that many people have simply not been declaring this income at tax time. That all changes now.' Ms Wong said the tax office was also targeting those who rented out items online. 'If you use a website to rent out a car parking space or your designer handbag, this income will be recorded, and you'll need to pay tax,' she said. The tax office's sharing economy reporting regime is expanding, meaning it will now be aware of all income earned from gig economy jobs in the 2024-25 financial year, above the $18,200 tax-free threshold. 'So, if you've had a successful year earning money through advertising revenue and streaming subscriptions, as well as through gifts and gratuities, the ATO will be expecting you to cough up,' she said. 'Yes, this even includes free cars, holidays, clothes and anything else you're lucky enough to receive as a form of payment. 'Depending on how much you've earned during the year, this could be a significant amount, maybe even tens of thousands of dollars.' What can be claimed on tax? Australian workers can claim items worth up to $300 in one financial year if they are used exclusively for work purposes, including a handbag used to carry a laptop computer and home office furniture. But H&R Block's director of tax communications Mark Chapman said these items had to be used to generate an income. 'Let's be clear: to claim items like bags or sunglasses, they must be used in the course of earning income; and if there's any personal use, only the work-related portion can be claimed. And as always, records are essential,' he said. 'Items of capital equipment (such as furniture, computers and associated hardware and software) which cost less than $300 can be written off in full immediately.' Australians working from home can claim 70 cents an hour on their tax, as a fixed rate claim method, provided they had proof since July 2024, in the form of diary entries, rosters or time sheets. Purchases made before June 30 can also be claimed as a tax deduction. 'With many retailers running end of financial year specials, any purchases you make now can be deducted in this year's tax return so from a cash flow point of view, you can minimise the time between purchase and tax deduction,' Mr Chapman said. What's the biggest misunderstanding about tax claims? Tax planning accountant Ben Johnston, a director of Johnston Advisory, said he had encountered many Australians during his three-decade career who thought the entire cost of a work-related item could be claimed on tax - because of those end of financial year sale campaigns on television. 'The benefits of tax deductions are so overstated where leading into the financial year - Officeworks, Dick Smith, Harvey Norman - all encouraging and really making people have urgency to spend money where it's actually really dumb to spend money to save tax,' he told Daily Mail Australia. 'Our tax system confuses and misleads people to spend money they don't need to just to save tax. 'A lot of people think they spend $10 on stationery and they get $10 back in tax when in fact they might be lucky to get $3.20 back. 'The notion of something being a hundred per cent tax deductible gets confused with being 100 per cent refundable and it's so false and retailers really prey on it.' Mr Johnston said he was frustrated by how many people didn't realise a tax claim simply reduced someone's taxable income. This led to them spending money falsely hoping to save money, even if it didn't necessarily put them into a lower marginal tax bracket. 'A refund's actually a false economy in a lot of ways - a lot of people don't understand that,' he said. 'Someone earning $200,000 a year - the most they get back out of that $10 is $4.70. 'If you're an apprentice, that hasn't worked a full year or only earned under $20,000, you spent $10, they get no money back because they don't pay tax. 'You only spend money on what you need for work - if you spend money incentivised for tax, then you're stupid; you're only getting a proportion of it back based on what your tax bracket is.'