India and Pakistan are 'keen to avoid further escalation'
Military Analyst Sean Bell discusses the India-Pakistan ceasefire, noting that it required little international pressure because both sides want to avoid further escalations.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Al Jazeera
a day ago
- Al Jazeera
India says it will ‘never' restore Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan
India will never restore the Indus Waters Treaty with neighbouring Pakistan, and the water flowing there will be diverted for internal use, says federal Home Minister Amit Shah. India put into 'abeyance' its participation in the 1960 treaty, which governs the usage of the Indus River system, after 26 people were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, in what New Delhi described as an act of terror backed by Pakistan. Pakistan denied involvement in the incident, which led to days of fighting between the two nuclear powers – their worst military escalation in decades, bringing them to the brink of another war. Despite a ceasefire agreed upon by the two nations last month, Shah said his government would not restore the treaty, which guaranteed water access for 80 percent of Pakistan's farms through three rivers originating in India. 'It will never be restored,' Shah told The Times of India newspaper in an interview on Saturday. 'We will take water that was flowing to Pakistan to Rajasthan by constructing a canal. Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably,' he added, referring to the northwestern Indian desert state. The transboundary water agreement allows the two countries to share water flowing from the Indus basin, giving India control of three eastern Himalayan rivers – Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas – while Pakistan got control of the three western rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. The treaty also established the India-Pakistan Indus Commission, which is supposed to resolve any problems that arise. So far, it has survived previous armed conflicts and near-constant tensions between India and Pakistan over the past 65 years. However, the comments from Shah, the most powerful minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's cabinet, have dimmed Islamabad's hopes for negotiations on the treaty in the near term. Pakistan has not yet responded to Shah's comments. But it has said in the past that the treaty has no provision for one side to unilaterally pull back, and that any blocking of river water flowing to Pakistan will be considered 'an act of war'. 'The treaty can't be amended, nor can it be terminated by any party unless both agree,' Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said last month. Islamabad is also exploring a legal challenge to India's decision to hold the treaty in abeyance under international law. Legal experts told Al Jazeera in April that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended, and that it can only be modified by mutual agreement between the parties. 'India has used the word 'abeyance', and there is no such provision to 'hold it in abeyance' in the treaty,' Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a Pakistani lawyer, told Al Jazeera. 'It also violates customary international laws relating to upper and lower riparian, where the upper riparian cannot stop the water promise for the lower riparian.' Anuttama Banerji, a political analyst based in New Delhi, told Al Jazeera in April that the treaty might continue, but not in its present form. 'Instead, it will be up for 'revision', 'review' and 'modification' – all three meaning different things – considering newer challenges such as groundwater depletion and climate change were not catered for in the original treaty,' Banerji said.
Al Jazeera
2 days ago
- Al Jazeera
Pakistan to nominate ‘genuine peacemaker' Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
Pakistan says it would recommend United States President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, an accolade that he has said he craves. In May, a surprise announcement by Trump of a ceasefire brought an abrupt end to a four-day conflict between nuclear-armed foes India and Pakistan. Trump has since repeatedly said that he averted a nuclear war, saved millions of lives and grumbled that he got no credit for it. Pakistan agrees that US diplomatic intervention ended the fighting, but India says it was a bilateral agreement between the two militaries. 'President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi, which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation,' Islamabad said in a statement posted on X. 'This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution through dialogue.' Governments can nominate people for the Nobel Peace Prize. There was no immediate response from Washington, DC, or New Delhi. Some analysts in Pakistan said the move might persuade Trump to think again about potentially joining Israel in striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Pakistan has condemned Israel's action as a violation of international law and a threat to regional stability. In a social media post on Friday, Trump gave a long list of conflicts he said he had resolved, including India and Pakistan and the so-called Abraham Accords in his first term between Israel and some Muslim-majority countries. He added: 'I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do.' Pandering to Trump's 'ego'? Trump has repeatedly said that he is willing to mediate between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region, their main source of enmity. Islamabad, which has long called for international attention to Kashmir, is delighted. But his stance has upended US policy in South Asia, which had favoured India as a counterweight to China, and put in question previously close relations between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan's move to nominate Trump came in the same week its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met the US president for lunch. It was the first time that a Pakistani military leader had been invited to the White House when a civilian government was in place in Islamabad. Trump's planned meeting with Modi at the G7 summit in Canada last week did not take place after the US president left early, but the two later spoke by phone, in which Modi said 'India does not and will never accept mediation' in its dispute with Pakistan, according to the Indian government. Mushahid Hussain, a former chair of the Senate Defence Committee in Pakistan's parliament, suggested nominating Trump for the peace prize was justified. 'Trump is good for Pakistan,' he said. 'If this panders to Trump's ego, so be it. All the European leaders have been sucking up to him big time.' But the move was not universally applauded in Pakistan, where Trump's support for Israel's war in Gaza has inflamed passions. 'Israel's sugar daddy in Gaza and cheerleader of its attacks on Iran isn't a candidate for any prize,' said Talat Hussain, a prominent Pakistani television political talk show host, in a post on X. 'And what if he starts to kiss Modi on both cheeks again after a few months?'
Al Jazeera
3 days ago
- Al Jazeera
Amid US-Pakistan thaw, two key challenges: Iran and China
Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has held an unprecedented one-on-one meeting with United States President Donald Trump at the White House, where the two leaders spoke for more than two hours, according to the Pakistani military. In a statement issued on Thursday by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military's media wing, the meeting, originally scheduled for one hour, was held in the Cabinet Room over lunch and then continued in the Oval Office. After Wednesday's meeting, the ISPR said, Munir expressed 'deep appreciation' for Trump's efforts in facilitating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day conflict in May between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. According to the ISPR, Trump welcomed Pakistan's cooperation against 'terrorism'. While the White House did not release any statement on the meeting, which was held behind closed doors and without news media photo opportunities, Trump spoke to reporters briefly after his talks with Munir. He thanked the army chief and said he was 'honoured to meet him'. Yet amid the bonhomie and the promise of a sharp uptick in relations after years of tension between Washington and Islamabad, Trump also referred to the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran, which the US president has said his country might join. The Pakistanis, Trump said, 'know Iran very well, better than most', adding that they are 'not happy'. For Pakistan, analysts said, that comment underscored how the reset in ties with the US that Islamabad desperately seeks will be tested by two key challenges. Iran and the current crisis with Israel will force Pakistan into a diplomatic balancing act, they said. And Islamabad's close relations with China could similarly pull Pakistan in conflicting directions. According to the ISPR, Munir spoke to Trump about a range of areas where the two nations could strengthen cooperation, including 'economic development, mines and minerals, artificial intelligence, energy, cryptocurrency, and emerging technologies'. But the Pakistani military conceded that the two leaders also held 'detailed discussions' on the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel with both Munir and Trump – according to Islamabad – emphasising the need for a peaceful resolution. Munir was accompanied by Pakistan's national security adviser, Lieutenant General Asim Malik, who also heads the country's premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). On the American side, Trump was joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the president's top negotiator in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said the lack of a media presence during the lunch could be interpreted as suggesting that 'the nature of the conversation was such that neither party wanted photo opportunities'. Weinbaum told Al Jazeera that neither side likely wanted to reveal much about 'what was discussed, though my read is it was perhaps the US wanting to know about Pakistan's role on what follows in Iran during this ongoing situation'. Later on Wednesday evening, Munir attended a dinner hosted by the Pakistani embassy with nearly three dozen figures from think tanks, policy institutions and diplomatic circles. Al Jazeera spoke to several participants, who all requested anonymity to discuss what Munir said at the dinner. One participant said Munir did not divulge specifics from his meeting with Trump but he remarked that the conversation was 'fantastic and could not have gone any better'. Munir added, according to this person, that Pakistan's relations with the previous administration of President Joe Biden had been 'among the worst' historically. Another attendee told Al Jazeera that Munir said the US 'knows what it needs to do regarding Iran' and reiterated that Pakistan's view is that 'every conflict is resolvable through dialogue and diplomacy'. For the moment, experts said, the meeting represents a major gain for Pakistan in its bid to improve ties with the US. Pakistan has been a close US ally since gaining independence in 1947. They worked closely together in Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion in 1979 and then again after the US invasion of Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks. While the US has provided more than $30bn in aid in the last two decades to Pakistan, it has repeatedly accused Islamabad of 'duplicity' and of not being a reliable security partner. Pakistan, in turn, has argued that Washington constantly demands it 'do more' without fully acknowledging the losses and instability Pakistan has suffered due to regional violence. Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC, said Munir's visit marks a 'significant upswing' in US-Pakistan ties under the Trump administration. 'Given President Trump's central role in shaping foreign policy and his preference for personal relationships, this visit has allowed Field Marshal Munir to solidify a rapport built during the recent crisis,' she told Al Jazeera. Sahar Khan, a Washington, DC-based security policy expert, said that while the meeting was significant, it doesn't mean the two countries are 'now friends'. However, it does indicate a 'thaw in the relationship'. She added that although Trump is unpredictable, Pakistan should consider striking a deal with him to prevent unrealistic demands regarding regional issues. 'For now, Munir's message to the Trump administration is, take the time to understand Pakistan and stop viewing it through the lens of India, China or Afghanistan,' she said. Making that message stick, though, won't be easy, analysts said. China remains Pakistan's most critical partner, with whom it enjoys deep economic, strategic and military ties. But simultaneously, over the past three decades, Beijing's rise as a global superpower has made it Washington's principal rival. Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher and China expert at the University of Technology in Sydney, said managing ties with both powers will test Islamabad's commitment to a policy of 'no-camp politics'. China has invested $62bn in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a large infrastructure project connecting western China to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan. On the military front, Pakistan procures more than 80 percent of its weaponry from China, and some of those products, particularly Chinese jets and missiles, showcased their worth in the recent conflict with India. 'In the long run, both [China and the US] are crucial for Pakistan in their own right,' Faisal told Al Jazeera. And while the US and China might each want Islamabad on their side, the fact that Pakistan is sought after by both has its own advantage. It 'gives Islamabad considerable diplomatic space to expand cooperation with both Beijing and Washington', he said. Iran, currently under an intense Israeli assault that has targeted key infrastructure and senior military and nuclear figures, presents another sensitive challenge for Pakistan. Analysts argued that Pakistan's proximity and ties to Tehran position it as a potential mediator between the US and Iran. 'It is in Pakistan's interest to play a mediating role. It cannot afford another adversary on its western border, given its internal challenges,' Khan said. Last month, Munir travelled to Iran along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. During the visit, he met Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of General Staff of the Iranian military. In the first wave of strikes by Israel on Friday, Bagheri was one of the several military officials who were killed. Since the Israeli strikes began, Pakistan has strongly defended Iran's right to self-defence, describing the Israeli strikes as violations of Iran's territorial sovereignty and calling them 'blatant provocations'. Home to nearly 250 million people, Pakistan has a significant Shia minority – between 15 percent and 20 percent of the population – who look to Iran for religious leadership. Faisal noted that these demographic and geographic realities would constrain Pakistan's public support for any US military intervention. 'Islamabad can continue to call for diplomacy and cessation of hostilities to contain the conflict. As a neighbour, instability in Iran isn't in Pakistan's interest,' he said. At the same time, Faisal added, 'a spike in sectarian tensions [in Pakistan] can test internal security. Thus, Islamabad will be wary of pro-American public posturing.'
