Amid US-Pakistan thaw, two key challenges: Iran and China
Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has held an unprecedented one-on-one meeting with United States President Donald Trump at the White House, where the two leaders spoke for more than two hours, according to the Pakistani military.
In a statement issued on Thursday by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military's media wing, the meeting, originally scheduled for one hour, was held in the Cabinet Room over lunch and then continued in the Oval Office.
After Wednesday's meeting, the ISPR said, Munir expressed 'deep appreciation' for Trump's efforts in facilitating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day conflict in May between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. According to the ISPR, Trump welcomed Pakistan's cooperation against 'terrorism'.
While the White House did not release any statement on the meeting, which was held behind closed doors and without news media photo opportunities, Trump spoke to reporters briefly after his talks with Munir. He thanked the army chief and said he was 'honoured to meet him'.
Yet amid the bonhomie and the promise of a sharp uptick in relations after years of tension between Washington and Islamabad, Trump also referred to the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran, which the US president has said his country might join.
The Pakistanis, Trump said, 'know Iran very well, better than most', adding that they are 'not happy'.
For Pakistan, analysts said, that comment underscored how the reset in ties with the US that Islamabad desperately seeks will be tested by two key challenges. Iran and the current crisis with Israel will force Pakistan into a diplomatic balancing act, they said. And Islamabad's close relations with China could similarly pull Pakistan in conflicting directions.
According to the ISPR, Munir spoke to Trump about a range of areas where the two nations could strengthen cooperation, including 'economic development, mines and minerals, artificial intelligence, energy, cryptocurrency, and emerging technologies'.
But the Pakistani military conceded that the two leaders also held 'detailed discussions' on the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel with both Munir and Trump – according to Islamabad – emphasising the need for a peaceful resolution.
Munir was accompanied by Pakistan's national security adviser, Lieutenant General Asim Malik, who also heads the country's premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
On the American side, Trump was joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the president's top negotiator in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.
Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said the lack of a media presence during the lunch could be interpreted as suggesting that 'the nature of the conversation was such that neither party wanted photo opportunities'. Weinbaum told Al Jazeera that neither side likely wanted to reveal much about 'what was discussed, though my read is it was perhaps the US wanting to know about Pakistan's role on what follows in Iran during this ongoing situation'.
Later on Wednesday evening, Munir attended a dinner hosted by the Pakistani embassy with nearly three dozen figures from think tanks, policy institutions and diplomatic circles. Al Jazeera spoke to several participants, who all requested anonymity to discuss what Munir said at the dinner.
One participant said Munir did not divulge specifics from his meeting with Trump but he remarked that the conversation was 'fantastic and could not have gone any better'. Munir added, according to this person, that Pakistan's relations with the previous administration of President Joe Biden had been 'among the worst' historically.
Another attendee told Al Jazeera that Munir said the US 'knows what it needs to do regarding Iran' and reiterated that Pakistan's view is that 'every conflict is resolvable through dialogue and diplomacy'.
For the moment, experts said, the meeting represents a major gain for Pakistan in its bid to improve ties with the US.
Pakistan has been a close US ally since gaining independence in 1947. They worked closely together in Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion in 1979 and then again after the US invasion of Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks.
While the US has provided more than $30bn in aid in the last two decades to Pakistan, it has repeatedly accused Islamabad of 'duplicity' and of not being a reliable security partner.
Pakistan, in turn, has argued that Washington constantly demands it 'do more' without fully acknowledging the losses and instability Pakistan has suffered due to regional violence.
Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC, said Munir's visit marks a 'significant upswing' in US-Pakistan ties under the Trump administration.
'Given President Trump's central role in shaping foreign policy and his preference for personal relationships, this visit has allowed Field Marshal Munir to solidify a rapport built during the recent crisis,' she told Al Jazeera.
Sahar Khan, a Washington, DC-based security policy expert, said that while the meeting was significant, it doesn't mean the two countries are 'now friends'. However, it does indicate a 'thaw in the relationship'.
She added that although Trump is unpredictable, Pakistan should consider striking a deal with him to prevent unrealistic demands regarding regional issues.
'For now, Munir's message to the Trump administration is, take the time to understand Pakistan and stop viewing it through the lens of India, China or Afghanistan,' she said.
Making that message stick, though, won't be easy, analysts said.
China remains Pakistan's most critical partner, with whom it enjoys deep economic, strategic and military ties. But simultaneously, over the past three decades, Beijing's rise as a global superpower has made it Washington's principal rival.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher and China expert at the University of Technology in Sydney, said managing ties with both powers will test Islamabad's commitment to a policy of 'no-camp politics'.
China has invested $62bn in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a large infrastructure project connecting western China to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan.
On the military front, Pakistan procures more than 80 percent of its weaponry from China, and some of those products, particularly Chinese jets and missiles, showcased their worth in the recent conflict with India.
'In the long run, both [China and the US] are crucial for Pakistan in their own right,' Faisal told Al Jazeera. And while the US and China might each want Islamabad on their side, the fact that Pakistan is sought after by both has its own advantage. It 'gives Islamabad considerable diplomatic space to expand cooperation with both Beijing and Washington', he said.
Iran, currently under an intense Israeli assault that has targeted key infrastructure and senior military and nuclear figures, presents another sensitive challenge for Pakistan.
Analysts argued that Pakistan's proximity and ties to Tehran position it as a potential mediator between the US and Iran.
'It is in Pakistan's interest to play a mediating role. It cannot afford another adversary on its western border, given its internal challenges,' Khan said.
Last month, Munir travelled to Iran along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. During the visit, he met Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of General Staff of the Iranian military. In the first wave of strikes by Israel on Friday, Bagheri was one of the several military officials who were killed.
Since the Israeli strikes began, Pakistan has strongly defended Iran's right to self-defence, describing the Israeli strikes as violations of Iran's territorial sovereignty and calling them 'blatant provocations'.
Home to nearly 250 million people, Pakistan has a significant Shia minority – between 15 percent and 20 percent of the population – who look to Iran for religious leadership.
Faisal noted that these demographic and geographic realities would constrain Pakistan's public support for any US military intervention.
'Islamabad can continue to call for diplomacy and cessation of hostilities to contain the conflict. As a neighbour, instability in Iran isn't in Pakistan's interest,' he said. At the same time, Faisal added, 'a spike in sectarian tensions [in Pakistan] can test internal security. Thus, Islamabad will be wary of pro-American public posturing.'
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