‘Israel can hover, but can't dismantle': US intel warns Iran nuclear strikes may have short-term impact

As Israel continues a series of airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, US intelligence assessments reveal a stark contrast with Israeli warnings, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of the campaign and the risk of escalation.
Israel's strikes, launched last week and centered on the Natanz nuclear facility, were justified by Israeli officials as a necessary preemptive move to halt Iran's alleged rapid progress toward acquiring nuclear weapons. But US officials disagree. According to four sources familiar with intelligence briefings, American assessments maintain that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon and remains up to three years away from being able to develop and deliver one.
One US official told CNN that despite the extensive damage at Natanz, the strikes have likely only set back Iran's nuclear program by 'a matter of months.' A second site, the heavily fortified Fordow facility deep beneath a mountain, remains unscathed, and out of Israel's reach without US bunker-busting bombs and aerial support.
'Israel can hover over those nuclear facilities… but if you really want to dismantle them, it's either a US military strike or a deal,' said Brett McGurk, former US envoy to the Middle East under Trump and Biden.
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President Donald Trump, speaking from the G7 Summit in Canada on Monday, reiterated that the US is not involved, yet. 'We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved,' he told ABC News.
Trump also called on both Israel and Iran to begin talks 'before it's too late.' However, a regional diplomat told CNN that Iran has communicated to mediators in Qatar and Oman that it will not enter negotiations while under attack.
Inside the Pentagon, the debate is intensifying. US Central Command, under Gen. Michael Kurilla, has advocated for increased military readiness in the region. On Monday, a US official confirmed that the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is moving toward the Middle East 'without delay,' and missile-defense-capable naval assets will shift to the eastern Mediterranean 'in the coming days.'
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Meanwhile, the divide in interpretations of intelligence persists.
US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran had not resumed its nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees, insisting that 'they were working, in a secret plan to weaponize the uranium. They were marching very quickly.'
The International Atomic Energy Agency last week confirmed Iran possesses enough uranium enriched just below weapons-grade to potentially build nine bombs, though developing a viable delivery system would take significantly longer.
The Israeli campaign, while damaging, may leave the most critical threat untouched.
'If this ends with Fordow intact,' McGurk warned, 'you could actually have a worse problem… Iran more inclined to go to a nuclear weapon, and they have that infrastructure intact.'

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