Oil prices see a ‘considerable moderation'
CommSec's Tom Piotrowski claims oil prices have seen a 'considerable moderation' over the course of the last day and a half.
'In the day session, oil prices in the US lost about 1.7 per cent – they're down a lot more than that from their recent peak,' he told Sky News Australia.
'Part of the reason for that is that the traffic monitoring that is on offer in the Strait of Hormuz has suggested that there's only been a modest reduction in the amount of tanker traffic moving through that important chokehold.'
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ABC News
a day ago
- ABC News
Financial markets weigh up conflict
Samantha Donovan: Investment analysts say the Israel-Iran conflict is seeing an uneasy calm on global financial markets. AMP's Shane Oliver helps manage billions of dollars for the superannuation firm AMP. He's told our business correspondent David Taylor that calm could disappear if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical sea passage for the world's oil supply. Shane Oliver: The financial markets seem fairly relaxed about things. There was the initial knee-jerk reaction a week or so ago when the news struck that Israel had hit targets in Iran and that Iran was retaliating. So, you saw this initial knee-jerk reaction. Oil prices sort of rose from about $68 a barrel to $74 or thereabouts. Share markets came down a bit. Ever since then, they've sort of been treading water waiting to see what happens. Of course, at the back of everyone's mind, there's always this fear that we're going to see a rerun of what happened in 1973 or 1979. But most of the time, that doesn't happen. This time around, though, there's probably a bit more nervousness simply because Iran has potentially getting closer to nuclear capability, nuclear weapons capability, and of course, Israel is determined to wipe that out. So that's why the situation is a lot more tense this time around. But I think investors are still thinking, well, maybe it'll turn out OK and be a non-event. David Taylor: When Donald Trump says via the White House press secretary that he's simply going to make it as he wants an extension for two weeks, he's going to make a decision within two weeks or at the end of two weeks, you're the ANP's strategist for a lot of money, a lot of investments. When you hear something like that, what's your thought? Is your thought that he's stalling or is your thought that markets simply just have to wait day by day as to what's going to happen next? Shane Oliver: Yeah, I guess his eyes done a very good job in terms of Iran, got the situation to a point where they can almost wipe out Iran's nuclear capability. And so maybe he should take that point. On the other hand, he worries that it could just lead to a worse situation, retaliation by Iran against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil supplies flow on a daily basis, and that it might bog the US down in a longer-term conflict. So the fact that he's thinking about it, I think, is a good sign. By the same token, it may just be giving more time for Iran to come to the party and surrender unconditionally. So it could be about that. Or alternatively, it could just be giving more time for the Israelis and the US to prepare the situation to go into trying to take these strikes. But the fact that it's not happening rashly, I think, is a good thing that he is thinking about it. So that gives me a little bit of comfort. And that's, I think, why share markets have ended the week, at least in the Australian time zone, reasonably in a reasonably calm mode. You haven't seen this sort of freefall that might have occurred if we'd gotten up in the morning and found that the US had struck Iran. David Taylor: But I guess that's a possibility still. Shane Oliver: It's still out there. It's still a possibility. I mean, the best outcome for everyone is Iran comes to the table and says, yeah, we're going to negotiate. We'll give you clear access to inspect nuclear facilities to make sure that we're not building nuclear weapons. That's probably the best outcome for everyone. The situation in the Middle East settles down. Oil prices fall back to where they were a few weeks back. And we move on to the next thing, back to focusing on tariffs. But it looks like we could be in for a period of uncertainty regarding this, not only whether the US will act, but when they do, how Iran then responds. And this could take some time before it's finally resolved. And then if Iran does respond and disrupt shipping, they don't have to block the whole of the Strait of Hormuz. They just have to provide enough of a threat to stop shipping going through there. Then how long it takes for the Americans to clear the situation again and remove the threat. And all of that could take quite a while. Samantha Donovan: That's AMP's Head of Investment Strategy, Shane Oliver. He was speaking with our business correspondent, David Taylor.
News.com.au
a day ago
- News.com.au
Israel-Iran War: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is ‘worst-case scenario' for oil prices
ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes says the worst-case scenario in the Israel-Iran conflict is the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and how this will directly impact oil prices. 'The US is the wildcard here, and while we don't know how Iran would retaliate, certainly there are scenarios, as I said, where they could try and hurt the US by pushing oil prices higher,' Mr Hynes told Sky News Business Reporter Edward Boyd. 'Worst case scenario, that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, then, there's no manner of supply that would be able to replace that quickly.'
News.com.au
a day ago
- News.com.au
What the Israel-Iran conflict means for the oil market
ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes breaks down three potential scenarios concerning the Israel-Iran conflict's impact on the oil market. 'Certainly, tensions have ratcheted up over the past week,' Mr Hynes told Sky News Business Reporter Edward Boyd. 'We've sort of broken it down into three main scenarios: one being we get an extended conflict where Israel and Iran exchange missiles, but we don't see any sort of major supply disruptions. 'Things could escalate, and that would certainly bring greater risk to the oil market – we'd potentially see a huge amount of supply at risk, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. 'The final scenario being that the conflict essentially subsides.'
