Ukraine reportedly hits Russian bombers at airfield
Video of a laptop screen purports to show an aerial view of Tu-95 strategic bombers exploding.
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ABC News
7 hours ago
- ABC News
Prabowo snubbed the G7 to meet Putin. Is Indonesia moving away from the West?
The decision by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to skip the G7 meeting in Canada and to visit Russia has raised eyebrows in Western capitals. The official reason provided was that his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin was pre-planned. Prabowo, being a man of his word, had decided to skip the G7 meeting of wealthy liberal democracies in favour of attending the little-known St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Known as Russia's Davos, the forum is where Russia — facing crippling Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine — seeks to attract foreign investment and showcase the best of its business and technology. Prabowo was invited as the Kremlin's guest of honour. "It's possible that he wasn't fully aware of the optics," said Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Gatra Priyandita. "But at the same time, I can also sort of imagine him thinking this might incentivise the West to try harder." Prabowo's decision came after reports earlier this year that Moscow was lobbying Jakarta to house long-range bombers in Indonesia's Papua province, causing anxiety in Australian foreign policy and defence circles. During a meeting with Putin this week, the the pair inked a strategic partnership. Indonesia and Russia's respective sovereign wealth funds signed an agreement worth 2 billion euros ($3.5 billion). Putin was praised for supporting Indonesia's bid to become a full member of BRICS — the 16-member grouping of non-Western nations founded by Russia along with China, India, Brazil and South Africa. Prabowo revelled in the fact that his Foreign Minister Sugiono, who goes by one name, had visited Russia three times within just eight months. "Russia is clever in giving attention to Prabowo," said Radityo Dharmaputra, head of the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Airlangga University in Indonesia. "It's not about the forum, but his personal relations with Putin … his willingness to meet with this so called great man in the in the global arena." Prabowo's Culture Minister Fadli Zon has previously gone as far as declaring his boss Indonesia's Putin. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs of 32 per cent against Indonesian goods have burned goodwill in Jakarta. "Increasingly, there is some degree of disillusionment about the United States and the future of US power," Dr Priyandita said. Mr Dharmaputra said Russia was stepping up its engagement at a time when the US and some European countries had cut their funding for several programs in Indonesia. "Other countries are struggling to compete with Russia and China in that regard," he said. Still, Prabowo's Russia trip should hardly be interpreted as a full-scale rejection of Indonesia's partnerships in the West. Since its creation as a nation, Indonesia has practised "free and active" foreign policy — meaning it is non-aligned to either the West or the West's adversaries. Prabowo is no exception. That was shown by the warmth of Anthony Albanese's visit to Jakarta last month after the Australian prime minister won re-election. As was the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles to Jakarta earlier this month. French President Emmanuel Macron also visited Jakarta to great fanfare only a few weeks ago. Analysts say Jakarta's ties to the US and Australia on a range of fronts remain much stronger than those with Moscow. Russia had never been a reliable investment partner for Indonesia, said Mr Dharmaputra. For example, Russia withdrew as an investor from the Borneo railway project in 2022 — which had been billed as an "historic milestone" for a Russian-backed initiative in the country. While Indonesia may purchase some arms from Russia, economic ties are lacklustre. Last year, China was the third largest foreign investor in Indonesia and the US was the fourth. Prabowo's decision to dodge the G7 may in fact have been partly motivated by domestic political factors, Dr Priyandita said. Indonesia, like most of South-East Asia, is out of step with Western powers in relation to Israel, its war in Gaza and attacks on Iran. The G7 leaders' statement affirmed Israel's "right to defend itself" and declared Iran was the "principle source of regional instability and terror". Being seen to buy into that narrative in Indonesia — a Muslim-majority country that has never recognised Israel and where public support for the Palestinian cause is immense — could be politically disastrous. Prabowo only recently attracted criticism for comments he made during Macron's visit, indicating that Indonesia might establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognised a Palestinian state. So, the visit to St Petersburg may have been motivated more by Putin's flattery and avoiding headaches at home than a pointed snub of the West. Prabowo has declared his foreign policy philosophy is "one thousand friends and zero enemies". His visit to Russia is a timely reminder that Indonesia, the largest economy in South-East Asia, does indeed have many friends.
News.com.au
8 hours ago
- News.com.au
Penny Wong stresses AUKUS ‘benefits' in call with Marco Rubio
The country's chief diplomat has stressed the 'benefits' of AUKUS in a call with US State Secretary Marco Rubio amid concerns Washington could be looking to pull out of the defence pact. The US Department of Defence earlier this month announced it was reviewing AUKUS to ensure it aligned with Donald Trump's 'American first' agenda. The Albanese government has brushed off concerns the 30-day audit signalled waning US support for the deal with Australia and the UK, with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles repeatedly calling it a 'natural' move. But with AUKUS the centrepiece of Australia's defence strategy over the first half of this century and Anthony Albanese yet to secure a face-to-face with the US President, it has offered little reassurance. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Friday she and her US counterpart discussed 'the importance of our partnership to stability, peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific'. 'I have outlined … the benefits to all countries, all three countries of the AUKUS agreement – an agreement which I think is so important for strategic balance in the region,' Senator Wong told reporters in Adelaide. 'That means protecting peace, preventing conflict, and assuring prosperity and security for all countries. 'I've also outlined, just as the Prime Minister has, the near-term benefits to the United States, including additional maintenance days and more days in the water for more submarines.' She refused to give a read on whether Mr Rubio backed the deal, only saying that 'he's on record as understanding the importance of AUKUS'. 'But obviously we'll work through the review with the United States,' Senator Wong said. 'It's unsurprising that they would engage in a review just as the United Kingdom did.' Canberra has already spent billions laying the groundwork to acquire and build nuclear-powered submarines and train personnel to crew them under AUKUS. Washington has committed to supply up to five Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032. But sluggish submarine production has put the US on track to face a shortage early next decade. Mr Trump can renege on AUKUS commitments if they endanger US national security. To help bolster production, Australia has agreed to inject $4.6bn into the US defence industrial base.
ABC News
10 hours ago
- ABC News
Donald Trump has delayed making a decision on attacking Iran. What's his strategy?
Deal-making? Decisive? Dithering? Or just momentarily deferred? Everyone will take their pick trying to determine why Donald Trump has bought himself time to make the most consequential decision a US president can make — whether to plunge his forces into another foreign conflict of unknown risk and uncertain duration. As ever with Trump pronouncements, there's a little something in this for everyone. "Within the next two weeks" is a timeline vague enough to simultaneously exasperate the Netanyahu government, confound the Iranian leadership, delight nervous allies and bewilder financial markets. On the domestic front, it could prolong the civil skirmish among Republican MAGA (Make America Great Again) forces over whether armed conflict passes as a form of American "greatness" or not these days. Why the US president settled on a timeline of an ill-defined decision-making period of anywhere between one and 14 days is anyone's guess. Make no mistake, leaders and officials in almost every government, not to mention military and foreign policy analysts the world over, are feverishly making their best guesses right now. So here are a few entries to guide this global guessing game. Trump is taking strategic and tactical ambiguity to a new level and has been for days. Earlier this week on the South Lawn of the White House, we probably got the most revealing insight into his mindset when asked by reporters about direct US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. In any event, he scoffed at publicly telegraphing any decision he may make on bombing missions in Iran so that the world's media could "be there and watch". The obvious conclusion is that advance notice would not be given. This, at least, would be consistent with the approach taken by most commanders in chief — think George W. Bush in Iraq, Obama on killing Osama bin Laden, or more recently, Biden's authorised strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen. Taking the current president at his word, we're not likely to know until after US forces have fired any shots. If they never do, we may be left to deduce ourselves whether this was the result of an active decision Trump took, or a passive one that passed with the moment into the mists of time. The White House has offered very limited reasoning on the significance of the time allocated for extra presidential musing. The clearest explanation for settling on it was offered was by press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who's suggested two weeks is the difference between an latent nuclear weapon program and an active one. "Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that," she said. "And it would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon, which would of course pose an existential threat, not just to Israel, but to the United States, and to the entire world." A US deferral carries with it no apparent obligations on Israel or Iran to cease their missile assaults on one other. It does allow time for diplomacy to do its work. According to the Reuters news agency, that work's been quietly going on in the background throughout the week since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with its attacks on Iran. Quoting diplomatic sources, Reuters has reported that Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi"have spoken several times by phone" during the week. Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hitting the phones to counterparts from Canberra to Paris, trying to build consensus around a campaign of maximum pressure on the Iranians. Through another channel, the so-called "E3" group of European foreign ministers from Germany, France and the UK are holding their own in-person talks with Araghchi in Geneva to explore a possible nuclear deal. Crucially, any extra time available also allows the Pentagon to ready its plans, forces, weapons, ships, planes and intelligence for potential strikes. Despite his ambiguity, those strikes deliberately and firmly remain as options underpinning the US president's prolonged timeline. Israel's Operation Rising Lion, together with Tehran's ferocious missile response, has already proved costly in lives, injuries and damage inflicted in both countries, but ripples into the broader global economy have so far been minimised. Oil prices are marginally up by about 3 per cent and shipments are still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of Iranian threats to blockade it if necessary. As they've proven before, ongoing uncertainty about military escalation doesn't mean financial markets will remain calm or rationally in an extended "holding pattern". The White House seems to be alert to the brittleness of oil pricing, with Leavitt giving an assurance that Trump is "paying attention and monitoring that". It's prudent to consider oil price sensitivities because it's via the fuel tank and the family budget that many Americans will decide on the merit or folly of another foreign military venture. The possibility of direct US miliary involvement is tearing at the seams of the MAGA movement which has twice propelled Trump to office on a foreign policy of war avoidance. "America First" is the guiding principle behind MAGA's approach to all things defence and security related. The idea that after only five months in the White House their president might see greatness in the deployment of a "bunker-busting" bomb half a world away in the interests of what they call "neo-con warmongers" is staggeringly incomprehensible to keepers of the flame, like commentator Tucker Carlson and Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. They're pitched against more hawkish pro-Israeli Republican figures including Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Texas senator Ted Cruz. Perhaps unintentionally, Cruz exposed the size of the rift within the MAGA clan in a combative on-camera interview with Carlson, revealing that for all his swagger, the Texan knew dangerously little about the foe he would have bombed into nuclear submission — unable to place any figure on simple facts including Iran's population. The internal MAGA fight might cause Trump some political discomfort at home, but he's just guaranteed the combatants can slug it out for a couple more weeks, or longer, until he makes a final decision.
