Prabowo snubbed the G7 to meet Putin. Is Indonesia moving away from the West?
The decision by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to skip the G7 meeting in Canada and to visit Russia has raised eyebrows in Western capitals.
The official reason provided was that his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin was pre-planned.
Prabowo, being a man of his word, had decided to skip the G7 meeting of wealthy liberal democracies in favour of attending the little-known St Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Known as Russia's Davos, the forum is where Russia — facing crippling Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine — seeks to attract foreign investment and showcase the best of its business and technology.
Prabowo was invited as the Kremlin's guest of honour.
"It's possible that he wasn't fully aware of the optics," said Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Gatra Priyandita.
"But at the same time, I can also sort of imagine him thinking this might incentivise the West to try harder."
Prabowo's decision came after reports earlier this year that Moscow was lobbying Jakarta to house long-range bombers in Indonesia's Papua province, causing anxiety in Australian foreign policy and defence circles.
During a meeting with Putin this week, the the pair inked a strategic partnership.
Indonesia and Russia's respective sovereign wealth funds signed an agreement worth 2 billion euros ($3.5 billion).
Putin was praised for supporting Indonesia's bid to become a full member of BRICS — the 16-member grouping of non-Western nations founded by Russia along with China, India, Brazil and South Africa.
Prabowo revelled in the fact that his Foreign Minister Sugiono, who goes by one name, had visited Russia three times within just eight months.
"Russia is clever in giving attention to Prabowo," said Radityo Dharmaputra, head of the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Airlangga University in Indonesia.
"It's not about the forum, but his personal relations with Putin … his willingness to meet with this so called great man in the in the global arena."
Prabowo's Culture Minister Fadli Zon has previously gone as far as declaring his boss Indonesia's Putin.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs of 32 per cent against Indonesian goods have burned goodwill in Jakarta.
"Increasingly, there is some degree of disillusionment about the United States and the future of US power," Dr Priyandita said.
Mr Dharmaputra said Russia was stepping up its engagement at a time when the US and some European countries had cut their funding for several programs in Indonesia.
"Other countries are struggling to compete with Russia and China in that regard," he said.
Still, Prabowo's Russia trip should hardly be interpreted as a full-scale rejection of Indonesia's partnerships in the West.
Since its creation as a nation, Indonesia has practised "free and active" foreign policy — meaning it is non-aligned to either the West or the West's adversaries.
Prabowo is no exception.
That was shown by the warmth of Anthony Albanese's visit to Jakarta last month after the Australian prime minister won re-election.
As was the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles to Jakarta earlier this month.
French President Emmanuel Macron also visited Jakarta to great fanfare only a few weeks ago.
Analysts say Jakarta's ties to the US and Australia on a range of fronts remain much stronger than those with Moscow.
Russia had never been a reliable investment partner for Indonesia, said Mr Dharmaputra.
For example, Russia withdrew as an investor from the Borneo railway project in 2022 — which had been billed as an "historic milestone" for a Russian-backed initiative in the country.
While Indonesia may purchase some arms from Russia, economic ties are lacklustre.
Last year, China was the third largest foreign investor in Indonesia and the US was the fourth.
Prabowo's decision to dodge the G7 may in fact have been partly motivated by domestic political factors, Dr Priyandita said.
Indonesia, like most of South-East Asia, is out of step with Western powers in relation to Israel, its war in Gaza and attacks on Iran.
The G7 leaders' statement affirmed Israel's "right to defend itself" and declared Iran was the "principle source of regional instability and terror".
Being seen to buy into that narrative in Indonesia — a Muslim-majority country that has never recognised Israel and where public support for the Palestinian cause is immense — could be politically disastrous.
Prabowo only recently attracted criticism for comments he made during Macron's visit, indicating that Indonesia might establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognised a Palestinian state.
So, the visit to St Petersburg may have been motivated more by Putin's flattery and avoiding headaches at home than a pointed snub of the West.
Prabowo has declared his foreign policy philosophy is "one thousand friends and zero enemies".
His visit to Russia is a timely reminder that Indonesia, the largest economy in South-East Asia, does indeed have many friends.
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The decision by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to skip the G7 meeting in Canada and to visit Russia has raised eyebrows in Western capitals. The official reason provided was that his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin was pre-planned. Prabowo, being a man of his word, had decided to skip the G7 meeting of wealthy liberal democracies in favour of attending the little-known St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Known as Russia's Davos, the forum is where Russia — facing crippling Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine — seeks to attract foreign investment and showcase the best of its business and technology. Prabowo was invited as the Kremlin's guest of honour. "It's possible that he wasn't fully aware of the optics," said Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Gatra Priyandita. "But at the same time, I can also sort of imagine him thinking this might incentivise the West to try harder." Prabowo's decision came after reports earlier this year that Moscow was lobbying Jakarta to house long-range bombers in Indonesia's Papua province, causing anxiety in Australian foreign policy and defence circles. During a meeting with Putin this week, the the pair inked a strategic partnership. Indonesia and Russia's respective sovereign wealth funds signed an agreement worth 2 billion euros ($3.5 billion). Putin was praised for supporting Indonesia's bid to become a full member of BRICS — the 16-member grouping of non-Western nations founded by Russia along with China, India, Brazil and South Africa. Prabowo revelled in the fact that his Foreign Minister Sugiono, who goes by one name, had visited Russia three times within just eight months. "Russia is clever in giving attention to Prabowo," said Radityo Dharmaputra, head of the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Airlangga University in Indonesia. "It's not about the forum, but his personal relations with Putin … his willingness to meet with this so called great man in the in the global arena." Prabowo's Culture Minister Fadli Zon has previously gone as far as declaring his boss Indonesia's Putin. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs of 32 per cent against Indonesian goods have burned goodwill in Jakarta. "Increasingly, there is some degree of disillusionment about the United States and the future of US power," Dr Priyandita said. Mr Dharmaputra said Russia was stepping up its engagement at a time when the US and some European countries had cut their funding for several programs in Indonesia. "Other countries are struggling to compete with Russia and China in that regard," he said. Still, Prabowo's Russia trip should hardly be interpreted as a full-scale rejection of Indonesia's partnerships in the West. Since its creation as a nation, Indonesia has practised "free and active" foreign policy — meaning it is non-aligned to either the West or the West's adversaries. Prabowo is no exception. That was shown by the warmth of Anthony Albanese's visit to Jakarta last month after the Australian prime minister won re-election. As was the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles to Jakarta earlier this month. French President Emmanuel Macron also visited Jakarta to great fanfare only a few weeks ago. Analysts say Jakarta's ties to the US and Australia on a range of fronts remain much stronger than those with Moscow. Russia had never been a reliable investment partner for Indonesia, said Mr Dharmaputra. For example, Russia withdrew as an investor from the Borneo railway project in 2022 — which had been billed as an "historic milestone" for a Russian-backed initiative in the country. While Indonesia may purchase some arms from Russia, economic ties are lacklustre. Last year, China was the third largest foreign investor in Indonesia and the US was the fourth. Prabowo's decision to dodge the G7 may in fact have been partly motivated by domestic political factors, Dr Priyandita said. Indonesia, like most of South-East Asia, is out of step with Western powers in relation to Israel, its war in Gaza and attacks on Iran. The G7 leaders' statement affirmed Israel's "right to defend itself" and declared Iran was the "principle source of regional instability and terror". Being seen to buy into that narrative in Indonesia — a Muslim-majority country that has never recognised Israel and where public support for the Palestinian cause is immense — could be politically disastrous. Prabowo only recently attracted criticism for comments he made during Macron's visit, indicating that Indonesia might establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognised a Palestinian state. So, the visit to St Petersburg may have been motivated more by Putin's flattery and avoiding headaches at home than a pointed snub of the West. Prabowo has declared his foreign policy philosophy is "one thousand friends and zero enemies". His visit to Russia is a timely reminder that Indonesia, the largest economy in South-East Asia, does indeed have many friends.
