Operation Sindoor: Limited operation with potent messaging
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Operation Sindoor
has been described by noted strategic expert Brahma Chellaney as shorter than the shortest — six-day Arab-Israel war of 1967. Unless resumed, this paused conflict has defied the recent global trend of unending and festering wars: notably, the Ukraine-Russia and Gaza conflicts.
Yet, it cannot be dismissed as mere skirmish because of the potency and significance of messages delivered.
These, of course, require consolidation. While signalling the new normal, it has also left few unanswered queries, which need to be examined. The most important one many asked by using an analogy from cricket: why declare when on the threshold of a century?
Characterisation of operation
It is difficult to propose an exact description for a mere 88-hour exchange, triggered 14 days after a dastardly terrorist mayhem at Pahalgam, accounting for 26 innocent lives.
Notwithstanding brevity, conflict threatened to transit into the nuclear domain, bringing nuclear facilities in Kirana Hills, in our daily debates.
The operation was limited to a non-contact domain with aerial delivery of lethal destruction, more like a futuristic, sci-fi exchange. Large formations were not even mobilized, so intention to mount conventional offensive had not been firmed up.
Missiles (beyond visual range) and drones were battling air-defence grids — Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), Akash-Teer, and Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS).
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All three make an indigenous version of the Israels' famed Iron Dome, but ours combines equipment of diverse origin — Russia, France, Israel, USA, and indigenous developments. Defying the limitation of medium, spatially, geographic spread, it stretched from North Skardu to South Bholari (Karachi).
Most importantly, the operation touched the very heartland of Pakistan Punjab — Rawalpindi, Muridke near Lahore, Sialkot and Bhawalpur.
Military targets degraded included key air-defence installations, command and control and logistics nodes, Sargodha, Chaklala and Nur Khan (Rawalpindi) bases.
Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has given India a long-term, choke-hold leverage over the agricultural economy of Pakistan's Punjab. Pakistan is already pleading for reconsideration, but we need to remain focused on a pragmatic review. Politically, while India projected control and purpose; Pakistani hierarchy displayed disparate voices and desperation.
Pindi would certainly be in turmoil with attacks on terror hubs of JuD (LeT), JeM and HuM, described by PM Modi as the "universities of global terrorism".
All bases/determinants, postulated in Pakistani nuclear expert Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai's famous matrix of red lines for nuclear threshold, were attacked — spatial, military, economic and political. Pakistan's nuclear sabre-rattling got completely debunked, once again.
India has cemented space for conventional escalation, created after Kargil and Balakot and enlarged it manyfold.
India has also operationalised and refined its integrated response matrix, synergising a large number of imported and indigenous platforms and systems. In mid-2016, when I retired, the considered view was that Pakistan had an edge over India in Air-Defence Control and Reporting (AD-C&R) with dedicated AD Theatre Command.
It is great credit to our air defence warriors that we not only fended off attacks, but degraded their defences, laying bare critical vulnerabilities.
By some estimates, the Pakistan Air Force has lost 15%-20% capability.
New doctrine and ceasefire
The new Modi doctrine has outlined three postulates. First, certainty of response, decisive retaliation on India's terms. Second, no tolerance for nuclear blackmail.
Third, no distinction between terrorists and their sponsors/controllers. In his signature style, the PM ruled out terror and talks, and terror and trade. He amplified this by saying that blood and water will not be allowed to flow together.
There is a lot of chatter on the escalation ladder and suspension of exchange, which is sought to be now converted into a ceasefire to conform to agreements of 2003 and 2021. While we may not want to be seen to be pushed into a ceasefire, it is difficult to deny that conflict between the two nations, armed with nukes, will inevitably draw in global and regional powers.
Ladder is a complex matrix, and it would be influenced by the USA, China, Russia and even Arabs. With external dependencies, stamina for extending conflict in the high-tech domain by both sides is limited. The ladder has got complicated with addition of new domains of cyber and drones. Calibration of matrix and pace of escalation needs to be further refined. It appeared to have outstripped the planned escalation in the current round.
The masterstroke was defining punishment delivered just before cessation. Strategically, we have achieved our objectives and avoided a debilitating conflict, which could have impeded our journey towards Viksit Bharat.
Way Forward
The country is galvanized with patriotic fervour and it is time to build on national consensus. The govt should go the extra mile to connect with sane elements in opposition on issues of national security.
It is also time we address our internal fault-lines, which are sought to be exploited by Pakistan. To begin with, we need to redouble efforts towards socio-political initiatives in J&K, Northeast and fix accountability for lapses.
While we have managed to put it across to our prickly and persistent adversary Pakistan, the primary one, Dragon (China), lurks in shadows. It would have mapped our capabilities and gathered electronic intelligence.
It has also tested its weapons. We need to prepare to dissuade China and Pakistan in collusive mode.
There is enough evidence that we cannot bank too much on external support. We need to revamp our diplomatic outreach to bolster support. 'Ekla Chalo Re' and 'Atam Nirbharata' are inspiring, and even heady, but we can do co-operative joint ventures, which could be rebranded as 'Smart Atam Nirbharata'. There is a definite and urgent imperative to refine our strategic communication.
More importantly, rein-in our electronic channels, who made a mockery of a refined operation In conclusion, one can only reiterate two guiding parameters. First, we need to adopt 'Josh with Hosh' as bigger challenges await us. Finally, for 'Viksit Bharat', we have to develop the culture of 'Viksit Samvad'.
(Author is former GOC-in-C of Western Command, Indian Army)
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