A US attack on Iran would show the limits of China's power

Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the 'international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite'.
When China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing's opposition to Israel's attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China 'condemns' them, as he had in a call with Iran.
In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Wang said that 'we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss', according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be sceptical of China's neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023.
China's efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran.
'Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritising looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative,' said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during the Biden administration.
Discussions of the conflict on China's heavily censored online forums have largely centred on the poor performance of Iran's military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China's support for Iran.
Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with 'unconditional protection' and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member.
'The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China,' Zhu wrote.
China's tempered response resembles that of its like-minded partner, Russia, which has done little more than issue statements of support for Iran, despite having received badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine. Both Beijing and Moscow were also seen as bystanders last year when their shared partner, the Assad regime, was overthrown in Syria.
Their relative absence raises questions about the cohesiveness of what some in Washington have called the 'Axis of Upheaval' – the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have drawn closer diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the US-dominated world order.
Of the four nations, only China is deeply embedded in the global economy, which means it has much to lose from turmoil in the Middle East. It buys virtually all of Iran's exported oil, at a discount, using clandestine tanker fleets to evade US sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional oil from Gulf states.
Higher energy prices would present another major headache for Beijing, which is trying to turn its sluggish economy around.
Besides energy, Iran provides China with a crucial foothold in the Middle East for advancing its interests and countering the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops across the region. Beijing has cultivated closer ties with Gulf states for the same reasons.
Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues such as human rights. 'It's the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the US cannot,' said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, towards the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing's reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels.
That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China's standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm.

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ABC News

4 hours ago

• ABC News

Israel launches fresh wave of attacks on Iran, as conflict enters second week

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On Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had spoken with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian about the Iranian nuclear program. Iran's Fars news agency said Israel had targeted the Isfahan nuclear facility, one of the nation's biggest, but there was no leakage of hazardous materials. Israel said it had launched a wave of attacks against missile storage and launch infrastructure sites. Ali Shamkhani, a close ally of Iran's supreme leader, said he had survived an Israeli attack. "It was my fate to stay with a wounded body, so I stay to continue to be the reason for the enemy's hostility," he said in a message carried by state media. Early on Saturday, the Israeli military warned of an incoming barrage from Iran, triggering air raid sirens across parts of central Israel and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Interceptions were visible in the sky over Tel Aviv, with explosions echoing as Israel's air defence systems responded. There were no reports of casualties. 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The Age

8 hours ago

• The Age

The ‘sandwich generation' and the age of caring

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The Advertiser

11 hours ago

• The Advertiser

Japan scraps US meeting after defence demands

Japan has cancelled a regular high-level meeting with its key ally the US after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defence. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had been expected to meet Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington on July 1 for annual security talks. But according to the Financial Times, Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than an earlier request of 3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump's government was demanding its Asian allies, including Japan, spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. An unnamed US official told Reuters that Japan had "postponed" the talks in a decision made several weeks ago. A non-government source familiar with the issue said he had also heard Japan had pulled out of the meeting but not the reason for it doing so. The Financial Times said the higher spending demand was made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, who has also recently upset another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific by launching a review of a project to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said other nations do not decide Japan's defence budget after Colby called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China, during his nomination hearing. Japan and other US allies have been engaged in difficult trade talks with the United States over Trump's worldwide tariff offensive. The paper said the decision to cancel the July 1 meeting was also related to Japan's July 20 upper house elections, expected to be a major test for Ishiba's minority coalition government. Japan's move comes ahead of a meeting of the US-led NATO alliance in Europe next week, at which Trump is expected to press his demand that European allies boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Japan has cancelled a regular high-level meeting with its key ally the US after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defence. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had been expected to meet Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington on July 1 for annual security talks. But according to the Financial Times, Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than an earlier request of 3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump's government was demanding its Asian allies, including Japan, spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. An unnamed US official told Reuters that Japan had "postponed" the talks in a decision made several weeks ago. A non-government source familiar with the issue said he had also heard Japan had pulled out of the meeting but not the reason for it doing so. The Financial Times said the higher spending demand was made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, who has also recently upset another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific by launching a review of a project to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said other nations do not decide Japan's defence budget after Colby called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China, during his nomination hearing. Japan and other US allies have been engaged in difficult trade talks with the United States over Trump's worldwide tariff offensive. The paper said the decision to cancel the July 1 meeting was also related to Japan's July 20 upper house elections, expected to be a major test for Ishiba's minority coalition government. Japan's move comes ahead of a meeting of the US-led NATO alliance in Europe next week, at which Trump is expected to press his demand that European allies boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Japan has cancelled a regular high-level meeting with its key ally the US after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defence. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had been expected to meet Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington on July 1 for annual security talks. But according to the Financial Times, Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than an earlier request of 3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump's government was demanding its Asian allies, including Japan, spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. An unnamed US official told Reuters that Japan had "postponed" the talks in a decision made several weeks ago. A non-government source familiar with the issue said he had also heard Japan had pulled out of the meeting but not the reason for it doing so. The Financial Times said the higher spending demand was made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, who has also recently upset another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific by launching a review of a project to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said other nations do not decide Japan's defence budget after Colby called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China, during his nomination hearing. Japan and other US allies have been engaged in difficult trade talks with the United States over Trump's worldwide tariff offensive. The paper said the decision to cancel the July 1 meeting was also related to Japan's July 20 upper house elections, expected to be a major test for Ishiba's minority coalition government. Japan's move comes ahead of a meeting of the US-led NATO alliance in Europe next week, at which Trump is expected to press his demand that European allies boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Japan has cancelled a regular high-level meeting with its key ally the US after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defence. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had been expected to meet Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington on July 1 for annual security talks. But according to the Financial Times, Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than an earlier request of 3 per cent. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump's government was demanding its Asian allies, including Japan, spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. An unnamed US official told Reuters that Japan had "postponed" the talks in a decision made several weeks ago. A non-government source familiar with the issue said he had also heard Japan had pulled out of the meeting but not the reason for it doing so. The Financial Times said the higher spending demand was made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, who has also recently upset another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific by launching a review of a project to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said other nations do not decide Japan's defence budget after Colby called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China, during his nomination hearing. Japan and other US allies have been engaged in difficult trade talks with the United States over Trump's worldwide tariff offensive. The paper said the decision to cancel the July 1 meeting was also related to Japan's July 20 upper house elections, expected to be a major test for Ishiba's minority coalition government. Japan's move comes ahead of a meeting of the US-led NATO alliance in Europe next week, at which Trump is expected to press his demand that European allies boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP.