Inside Sweden: What do those stats about immigrants' net contribution actually mean?
The Local's editor Emma Löfgren rounds up the biggest stories of the week in our Inside Sweden newsletter.
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Hej,
'Sweden long had an overly generous migration policy which led to a rapid increase in the number of immigrants. The government and the Sweden Democrats are now implementing a paradigm shift which is significantly reducing immigration to Sweden. However, to better understand the long-term consequences of the previous policy and to learn lessons for the future, more knowledge and analysis is needed.'
That was the first paragraph of an opinion piece published by the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats in the Aftonbladet newspaper last summer, in which they announced that the government had ordered Sweden's National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) to calculate the net effects of immigration on the economy.
NIER's report was published last week, but it has mostly flown under the radar.
It's perhaps no surprise that the government hasn't been wanting to shout about it from the rooftops, as it shows that not only do immigrants as a group have a positive net contribution to the Swedish economy – it's in fact greater than that of native Swedes.
Let's get one thing out of the way first: NIER warns that the figures in its report should be taken with a pinch of salt – certain expenses and incomes can either not be calculated directly or the available data is not broken down on an individual level, such as healthcare or infrastructure, so many of them are based on assumptions.
The figures also do not take into account other effects of immigration in the Swedish economy, such as higher productivity or effects on the labour market.
And it's purely based on contribution as a financial transaction – for example if I need healthcare I'm taking money out of the state and if I pay tax it's money into the state. It doesn't take into account 'soft' contributions such as getting involved in community events or just being a nice neighbour – I think it's important not to forget about those things.
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Anyway, the report found that foreign-born people as a group contributed six billion kronor to Sweden's public finances in 2022, whereas native Swedes had almost exactly the opposite figures, with a negative net contribution of six billion kronor.
But what I think is almost more important than the stats, is looking at the why.
For example, a major reason why native Swedes have a negative net contribution is that this group includes a large number of children, young people and pensioners, which means that it has high costs associated with children and the elderly's needs – groups that don't pay as much money into the system because they're not working.
Similarly, Finns as a group have a substantial negative net contribution, because many Finns who arrived as labour migrants between 1950 and 1970 are now middle aged or older, meaning that they have high costs for pensions, healthcare and elderly care.
If you break it down to 'refugees' and 'other immigrants', refugees as a group have a negative net contribution (but it's been rising in recent years). This is because refugees arrive without a job so they don't immediately start paying into the system – but if you look at refugees who've been in Sweden longer, their net contribution is positive.
Indians have by far the highest net contribution to the Swedish economy – in fact enough to offset the entire negative contribution of people born in Sweden. This is because most Indians moving to Sweden already have highly-qualified jobs ready when they arrive in the country and work in highly-paid industries such as tech. Most Indians in Sweden arrived in the past decade or so, so they're at peak working age.
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But all of this is a snapshot, based on figures from 2022. It doesn't take into account the lifetime Swedish pensioners spent working, or the decades newly arrived refugees will spend paying into the system as soon as they enter the labour market.
If anything, looking only at the financial benefit to the Swedish state, it's obvious from the report that more barriers need to be removed for foreigners trying to get a foot through the door of the labour market, and that decision-makers need to stop implementing policies that are actively turning work permit holders away.
But what it mainly tells me rather than who is financially valuable (!) and who isn't, is that these things come and go in waves. Every single one of us goes through phases of life when we pay into the system and phases when we take our fair share out of it. And the key difference is where we are in life, rather than our immigration status.
Immigrants, work permit holders, native Swedes, refugees, trailing spouses, children, pensioners – we all contribute to the world around us in our own individual way.
What does the word 'contribution' mean to you? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Before I move on to the rest of the top stories we've covered this week, I just want to take a moment to say that we've been overwhelmed by the response to our appeal last week for donations to help us do the journalism that matters to you.
Thank you to everyone who has donated, shared the appeal, or is just here reading us.
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In other news
This week's episode of Sweden in Focus Extra for Membership+ subscribers features an interview with Indian lawyer Aakritee Tiwari.
My latest budget tip is to swap your morning coffee for a cauliflower (not really).
Anyone running the Copenhagen-Malmö Bridge Run this weekend? If not, here's what you need to know about how it will affect travel – and where you can watch.
GAMES: Have you tried The Local's games for Membership+ subscribers yet? We've got a new crossword and word search puzzle out now
Good news at last for work permit holders. The rule that if you want to change employer in the first two years you have to get a new permit will be scrapped next year – and the grace period for laid-off work permit holders will be extended (for some).
More than 30 teachers at the IES school chain have lost their permanent contracts and either been made redundant or moved into other roles after Sweden's Schools Inspectorate criticised the group for its use of teachers without a Swedish certification.
Swedish property prices saw a modest increase in May.
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In many ways, Sweden grinds to a halt during the summer, as workers head out to the countryside for a well-earned rest. That's not quite true though – here are the new laws and other changes in store for June, July and August.
I really enjoyed speaking with Francisca Leonardo, or Frankie, for our My Swedish Career interview this week. She shares the story of how a major health scare, just a couple of years after arriving in Sweden from Canada, sparked a radical career change: from biotechnology to running her own, unique travel brand in Stockholm.
After a disappointing spring for much of the country, this weekend brings with it hotter temperatures, with the mercury potentially hitting 27 or 28C in Stockholm on Sunday.
Thanks for reading,
Emma Löfgren
Editor, The Local Sweden
Inside Sweden is our weekly newsletter for members which gives you news, analysis and, sometimes, takes you behind the scenes at The Local. It's published each Saturday and with Membership+ you can also receive it directly to your inbox.
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