Five key reasons why Bihar election 2025 is high-stakes contest — shifting loyalties, popularity swings and Op Sindoor
Bihar's top political leaders — Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and the new entrant Prashant Kishor — have started setting the tone for the upcoming elections as suspense grows over seat-share formulas and the chief minister's face. After Operation Sindoor, this will be the first election in the country.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Bihar on Thursday, May 29 to inaugurate a slew of projects. Few days back, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, launched the Congress' campaign 'Nyay Samvad' to understand people's 'grief and problems.'
The Assembly Elections in Bihar are expected to be held in October-November this year. The main battle is likely to be between the National Democratic Alliance [NDA] and the Mahagathbandh. However, a pre-poll opinion survey suggests that Prashant Kishor may gain some popularity.
As the race for Bihar CM post begins, here are five factors that make the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar important.
The Bihar Election 2025 will be the first election the country will witness after Operation Sindoor, which was launched on May 7 by the Indian armed forces in response to the April 2022 Pahalgam terror attack.
Will the timing of the election prove beneficial for the ruling NDA? As speculations mount, the BJP and the Congress have traded barbs over the "politicisation of Operation Sindoor".
Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accused the BJP of politicising the 'Operation Sindoor' when reports had surfaced that PM Modi will meet Chief Ministers of NDA-ruled states over Operation Sindoor.
"What is the mistake of the CMs of Karnataka, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, HP, Punjab, J&K? What is this if not politicisation?," Ramesh had then said.
Meanwhile, a poll by 'VOTE VIBE' revealed that 59 percent of those surveyed believe PM Modi "should get credit for Operation Sindoor." The report said, "The support increases with age 55+ group [shows 68.7% support]; younger voters are comparatively more skeptical..."
Best known as a political consultant and strategist, Prashant Kishor has vowed to contest and win the Bihar Elections 2025. This time, he won't be making strategies, but tread the waters himself.
Last in May, Prashant Kishor had exuded confidence that his Jan Suraaj Party will win in Bihar "on its own" in 2025. He had said in an interview with India Today, 'Jan Suraaj will contest [all] 242 assembly seats [in Bihar] and will come to power with a majority.'
However, his newly launched Jan Suraaj party failed to make an impact in the bypolls in Bihar. Candidates of the Prashant Kishor-led group lost deposits in all but one seat in November 2024.
Kishor, however, had then brushed off concerns about the poll outcome, highlighting the fact that his party won 10% of the total votes polled in the four seats.
Besides, in a significant political development in Bihar ahead of the Assembly polls, former Union minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh has merged his political outfit, Aap Sabki Awaz (ASA), with the Jan Suraaj Party. Patna, Bihar, India -May .19, 2025: Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor with former BJP MP Uday Singh greet with each other during joined the party, in Patna. Prashant Kishor announced Uday Singh chosen as the party's first national president at Jan Suraj Camp, Patliputra Golambar in Patna, Bihar, India, Monday,19. 2025.(Photo by Santosh Kumar/ Hindustan Times)
Speculations are rife that Nishant Kumar, the son of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, may contest the 2025 Bihar elections from Harnaut constituency.
The rumours started after JD(U) supporters put up a poster outside the party office in Patna in support of CM Nitish Kumar's son Nishant Kumar, news agency ANI reported. The posters reportely read 'Bihar ki maang, sun liye Nishant, bahut bahut dhanyawaad (Nishant, thank you very much for listening to the demands of Bihar)." Patna, Bihar, India -March .16, 2025: People looking poster of Nishant Kumar, son of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar put up outside of JDU office in Patna, Bihar, India, Sunday,16, 2025.(Photo by Santosh Kumar/ Hindustan Times)
The reports about Nishant Kumar's election debut surfaced as opposition leaders raised concerns about father Nitish Kumar's health. Prashant Kishor said earlier, 'Nitish Kumar is physically tired and mentally unfit.'
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav also once referred to Nitish Kumar as a "tired" Chief Minister. On Nitish Kumar's birthday, Tejashwi took a jibe, saying, 'A 15-year-old vehicle doesn't run, so why should a 20-year-old government?'
Several opinion polls suggest that RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav is the top choice for the next Bihar Chief Minister. One of the opinion polls revealed that while the popularity of Yadav and Nitish Kumar declined, that of Prashant Kishor rose in six months.
The C-Voter survey, accessed by Mint, suggested that Tejashwi Yadav was the most preferred candidate to be the next Bihar Chief Minister, followed by Prashant Kishor, making Nitish Kumar the third choice.
As per the C-Voter survey, Nitish Kumar's popularity dropped by 3 percent — from 18 percent in February 2025 to 15 percent in April. It showed that Tejashwi Yadav's popularity declined from 40.6 percent in February to 35.5 percent in April. Meanwhile, that of Prashant Kishor's increased by around two percent — from 14.9 per cent to 17.2 percent.
Another opinion poll released by InkInsight also placed Tejashwi Yadav as the top choice for the Bihar CM post. It put Nitish Kumar in the second spot. Patna, Bihar, India -May .03, 2025:Leader of Opposition and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav addressing during Ati Pichra Sammelan at Millar School ground in Patna, Bihar, India, Saturday,03. 2025.(Photo by Santosh Kumar/ Hindustan Times)
It was only last year that Nitish Kumar switched alliances for the fifth time. It was just before the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections when Nitish Kumar snapped ties with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan and joined hands withe the BJP.
As per the InkInsight opinion poll, 47.5 percent of those polled believed that jumping ships before elections may have cost Nitish Kumar credibility "to some extent", while around 26.6 percent believed Kumar lost credibility to a "large extent". Around 25.9 percent said it did not impact his credibility.
The C-Voter survey also suggested that "pendulum swings" by Nitish Kumar in the last 10 years may have taken a hit at Nitish Kumar's "credibility and popularity".
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