The Russians are coming and we are all alone
It's not hard to spot those who are listening to The Wargame, a new podcast from Sky News and Tortoise Media. You'll have seen them on the train or walking the dog, headphones on, casting nervous glances at the sky while Googling 'Anderson shelter' and stocking up on iodine tablets.
Presented by Deborah Haynes, Sky News's security and defence editor, the five-part series imagines a Russian attack on the United Kingdom in the autumn of 2025 and assembles a wartime government to deal with. It is the sort of wargame scenario that takes place behind closed doors in Whitehall. And now I can see why. If they were done publicly, the country would go into meltdown. This is a podcast that could make a hawk out of a dove.
Haynes has brought together a team of big-hitters to take part in this deluxe murdery-mystery evening, including the former defence secretary Ben Wallace acting as prime minister, Amber Rudd and Jack Straw reprising their respective roles of home secretary and foreign secretary, General Sir Richard Barrons acting as chief of defence staff, and Baroness Helena Kennedy as the attorney general. Across the corridor, in a bunker somewhere in London, is the Russian team, headed by Keir Giles, an expert in Russian military history. Military cosplay has never seemed so urgent.
The scenario starts off plausible and eerily familiar – a major power cut, fires breaking out in Plymouth and Portsmouth, traffic lights down, ferry crossings paused. Mischief, but not quite mayhem. Could be something, could be nothing. Then, the catalyst, a major explosion at a naval base. Not in the UK, but in northern Russia. Moscow, who in this scenario knows full well it was perpetrated by Dagestani terrorists, blames London and vows revenge. Days later, two British F-35 pilots are shot dead in Norfolk, cyberattacks on the UK shoot up, the Russians begin a snap naval exercise. The PM calls a Cobra meeting.
It all sounds like the stuff of a hokey Sky TV thriller, but the scenario has been painstakingly assembled by war expert Dr Robert Johnson of the University of Oxford. Stopping it all sliding into silliness is the measured responses of the participants, who resist the urge to ham it up (apart from one weirdly stirring moment when Straw ticks off the US secretary of state). At times, with the muted voices and soft murmurings of 'yes, I agree actually', it takes on the air of a parish council meeting. Albeit a parish council meeting where they are facing the prospect of armageddon.
As things escalate and London burns, the imaginary government has to face up to two very real issues. One, the old order has crumbled. The United States, with its aggressive tone towards its European allies and friendly overtures to Moscow, can no longer be relied upon. Without the US, Nato is neutered, as Russia well knows. This leads to the second enormous problem – since the end of the Cold War, successive British governments have slashed the defence budget, leaving our armed forces' cupboards empty. Quite simply, we are a country who are not at all prepared for war. We can invoke Article 5 until we're blue in the face, but if the US does not play ball, it's meaningless.
You can hear the disquiet among Wallace et al as they truly ponder the idea that the Russians are coming and we are all alone. When they do a stocktake, it's as farcical as it is chilling. If Russia was to launch ballistic missiles at the UK, which in this scenario they do, then the UK's only defence is its Type 45 destroyers. We have six. One is at sea, one is docked, and the other four are 'routinely unavailable because of maintenance and staffing issues'. One, HMS Daring, has spent more time being fixed than out at sea. No wonder the Russians are confident.
The moment that had me putting my head in my hands was Haynes telling us that for this wargame exercise, in order for the UK to stand even the smallest chance of survival, they had to pretend that aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales, destroyer HMS Dauntless and 24 F-35 jets weren't currently on an eight-month diplomatic tour of the Indo-Pacific. As the missiles hit London, one participant sums it up: 'There's nothing we can do in this room to change what's happening.'
Without revealing too much, our amateur-dramatic Cobra team find themselves, astonishingly quickly, facing just two stark options: surrender to Russia or launch a nuclear strike. Finding a third way will require sensational diplomatic conjuring tricks with the US and Nato. Next week's fifth and final episode will begin with the UK and Russia on the brink of nuclear war – how the UK can pull back from it, or even if they can, will be fascinating to hear.
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