Is the Israel-Iran war a billion-dollar threat to Adani Ports & SEZ?

The world is once again on the brink. With the war in Ukraine still raging and unrest simmering across the Middle East, a new conflict has plunged global geopolitics into deeper uncertainty.
A few days ago, tension between India and Pakistan flared up after 26 people were killed in a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. India launched Operation Sindor, which targeted terrorist camps across the Line of Control.
For a brief moment, there was a serious apprehension that both India and Pakistan could go to war. But both sides agreed to a ceasefire, which reduced stress.
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But cool in South Asia has been affected by a more explosive conflict in the Middle East. On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a military campaign against Iran, targeting major military and nuclear sites.
Since then, the Israel-Iran conflict has entered its fourth day, with no signs of de-escalation. Overnight missile exchanges have intensified, with Iran striking an Israeli oil refinery and crippling parts of its power grid.
In this geopolitical storm, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) Ltd has emerged as a company of keen interest on Dalal Street.
APSEZ is the largest commercial ports operator in India, accounting for nearly one-fourth of the country's cargo movement.
It has a presence in 13 domestic ports in seven maritime states: Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha.
Through its subsidiary Adani Logistics, APSEZ operates three logistics parks located at Patli in Haryana, Kila-Raipur in Punjab, and Kishangarh in Rajasthan.
The company is engaged in developing, operating, and maintaining ports, developing ports-related infrastructure, and developing infrastructure in special economic zones.
On 16 June 2025, shares of APSEZ were in focus amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Some reports suggested that the conflict between the two countries caused damage to the Haifa port in Israel.
Late on Saturday night, tensions in the Middle East escalated further as Iran fired missiles at Israel's Haifa port and a nearby oil refinery. Debris from the attack reportedly landed in the chemical terminal of the port, while other projectiles hit the oil refinery.
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While the incident raised immediate concerns, especially for Adani Group's operations in the region, media reports state the Adani-operated section of the Haifa port was not impacted.
However, Jugeshinder Robbie Singh, the Adani Group CFO, refuted the reports and said the damage reports were false. News agencyPTIreported on Sunday that the group's port was unaffected.
Despite the tense situation, it's business as usual at the port for now. As per reports, eight ships remained docked and cargo handling continued smoothly. Operations stayed on track, with no damage reported to infrastructure or logistics.
For now, Adani's key international port remains safe, even as the region braces for what comes next.
Adani Ports' stake in the Haifa port
In 2023, the Adani Group made a high-profile international expansion by acquiring a 70% stake in Israel's Haifa port for $1.2 billion, in partnership with Israel's Gadot Group, which holds the remaining 30%. The joint venture is set to operate the strategic port until 2054.
Haifa serves as a vital maritime gateway for Israel, handling more than 30% of the country's imports. While it contributes nearly 5% to APSEZ's revenue, it accounts for less than 2% of the total cargo volume managed by the company.
APSEZ, which handles around 10.57 million tonnes of cargo overall, has always positioned Haifa as a long-term strategic asset rather than a volume play.
However, the recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has cast a shadow over the investment. The fear is that ongoing hostilities could delay cargo movements at Haifa and potentially disrupt global shipping routes.
The impact was already visible in the market on Friday. Shares of Adani Ports—one of the group's most profitable businesses dropped more than 3% intraday to ₹1,396 before recovering slightly to close at ₹1,405.25, a 2.71% decline.
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While Haifa may represent a small portion of the group's operations, the geopolitical risk it carries now looms large.
What if Adani's Haifa port takes a hit?
At the moment, Adani's Haifa port is still up and running, with cargo ships docked and operations going on as usual. But there's a growing sense of unease.
What happens if things take a turn for the worse?
If the port were to suffer serious damage, the impact on Adani Ports could be significant. Early estimates suggest losses could range between $1.9 bn and $2.9 bn.
That includes the original $840 million (m) poured into the deal, around $50-100 m in annual revenue, and a potential hit of $1-2 bn in market value.
The longer the conflict continues, the more uncertain the returns on Adani's overseas bet become, raising the question of whether this bold global expansion will deliver long-term gains or turn into an expensive mistake.
Scaling up Vizhinjam
APSEZ is set to invest ₹13,000 crore to expand the Vizhinjam International Deepwater Seaport in Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram.
This next phase of growth, fully self-funded, comes on the back of successful trial runs and growing demand.
The port is already operating at 90% capacity, having handled 280 ships and 620,000 TEUs since trial operations began in June 2024.
With an initial ₹7,000 crore already invested, the port's expansion is aimed at keeping up with rising transhipment traffic and unlocking its full potential.
3x global operations by 2030
Looking overseas, APSEZ is laying out bold plans to triple its international operations by 2029-30.
With major investments in Israel, Tanzania, and Sri Lanka, the company is aiming to handle 140–150 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cargo globally by the end of the decade. Domestic volumes are also expected to grow steadily, with capacity projected to reach 820-850 MMT.
To fuel this ambition, APSEZ is doubling down on key global assets, including Israel's Haifa port, the under-construction port in Tanzania, and Colombo West International Terminal in Sri Lanka.
Conclusion
Indian port industry will grow at the rate of 4-7% over the next five years, supported by rising imports, a decline in freight costs, and the normalisation of global supply chains, according to a report by Motilal Oswal.
Along with its expansion plans, Adani Ports' is set to benefit from the growth of the industry as well.
But with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding its Haifa port investment, all eyes are on the company's global impact.
It's important to conduct thorough research on financials and corporate governance before making investment decisions, ensuring they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Happy Investing.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only. It is not a stock recommendation and should not be treated as such.
This article is syndicated from Equitymaster.com.

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