SNB vice chairman says banks' capital and liquidity buffers remain key

ZURICH: Banks' capital and liquidity buffers remain key in the context of increased financial market volatility and persisting vulnerabilities in Switzerland's mortgage and residential real estate markets, Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Antoine Martin said on Thursday.
The interest rate environment in Switzerland has started to weigh on banks' profitability, Martin added in a speech after the SNB's latest interest rate decision. (Reporting by Ariane Luthi, Editing by Miranda Murray)

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Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets' central bank roadmap

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Arabian Post

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Markets aren't ready for a US move on Iran

If the United States launches direct military strikes against Iran, global stock markets will likely react with speed and force—dropping hard before any official policy statements are made or economic forecasts adjusted. This would not be a measured repricing. It would be a sharp reflex from investors who have, until now, largely overlooked the rising threat of a wider regional war in the Middle East. Equities across the US, Europe and Asia are still trading near record highs. Confidence has been built on assumptions of rate cuts, stable oil prices, and easing inflation. Those assumptions are now vulnerable. The prospect of a broader military conflict—especially one involving the world's largest economy—threatens to knock markets off balance. ADVERTISEMENT Oil has already climbed nearly 9% since the initial Israeli strikes on Iran. That alone sends a clear signal. Energy traders are building in the possibility of deeper supply disruptions. 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The US dollar has strengthened modestly against safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Treasury yields have edged lower as capital moves into government bonds. None of this is extreme, but all of it reflects a market sensing that something is changing. A direct US strike on Iran would remove all ambiguity. The market's tolerance for risk would drop instantly. The initial reaction would likely hit tech stocks, high-beta names, and emerging market assets first. Liquidity would shrink. Volatility would surge. Many investors would step to the sidelines, awaiting clarity that may not come for days. ADVERTISEMENT There's also the issue of timing. Should US action occur suddenly—overnight or during a weekend—it would leave global markets scrambling to price in the consequences before trading resumes. That sort of blind repricing creates wider gaps and sharper drops. None of this is about the long-term value of businesses or the global economy's trajectory five years from now. It's about near-term risk tolerance. The kind of rapid repricing triggered by geopolitics tends to override valuation logic. It pulls markets down in broad strokes. What makes this situation particularly sensitive is how underprepared markets seem to be. Despite the headlines and military posturing, positioning remains optimistic. Risk appetite has returned. Rate-sensitive trades are back in fashion. Many investors appear to be assuming that the conflict will remain contained. That assumption is weak. The Middle East remains highly interconnected. A move by the US opens the door to a wider confrontation, including proxy responses across multiple borders. Markets will struggle to measure the implications if those scenarios begin to unfold. Even a limited US strike would likely bring airspace closures, shipping route disruptions, and the possibility of further retaliation. All of this increases complexity for supply chains, commodities, and corporate earnings. 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When geopolitics meets stretched valuations and overconfidence, the result is rarely subtle. If Washington acts, markets will move—and they will move fast. Nigel Green is deVere CEO and Founder Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.

Zawya

18 hours ago

• Zawya

India's central bank eases provisioning rules for infrastructure loans

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